Sharp Football Analysis by Warren Sharp

NFL Week 6 takeaways from the numbers. Atlanta had the best run game in the week on a per carry basis and called 12 rushes, the fewest in the week, while Michael Penix got blitzed and sacked at the second worst rates of any quarterback. The Cowboys slipped, literally, and ran the worst early down run game of any first half in the week. 2026 is the second most penalized start to a season since 2000 and delay of game flags are at an all time high. The Steelers went from first and goal with 1:38 left to fourth and goal with 1:23 left and needed overtime to beat Tampa Bay. The Giants collapsed against the Saints, and Jalen Hurts' London numbers fell off a cliff after halftime on 36 hours without sleep, before the news that he is out for the season. Plus a best bet for Monday Night Football with Curtis.

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Players and coaches discussed: Michael Penix, Bijan Robinson, Kevin Stefanski, Tommy Rees, Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Mike Tomlin, Cam Skattebo, Najee Harris, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels.

What you'll learn

• Atlanta's first half drives: two three and outs, a turnover on downs, one touchdown, one punt, and a 21 to 7 halftime deficit
• The Falcons ran it 12 times, the fewest in the week, with a 16.7 percent explosive rush rate, the best in the week
• Michael Penix was blitzed on 52.6 percent of dropbacks and sacked on 13.2 percent, both second worst, with a 31.6 percent bust rate, the worst
• Bijan Robinson averaged 12.8 yards on 4 first half carries and the Falcons kept throwing
• The Cowboys' first half early down runs averaged -0.37 EPA, the worst first half mark in the week, and Dallas threw 78 percent of its passes at 10 air yards or less, the most in the week
• 97 delay of game penalties through six weeks, the previous high was 75, and offenses have committed 690 flags, the most through Week 6 since at least 2000
• Offensive holding is up 58 percent since 2022
• The Steelers threw on first and goal and third and goal with 1:38 left and two Tampa Bay timeouts on the board
• Pittsburgh's first half was the worst in the week by EPA per play and EPA per dropback
• The Giants' catastrophe against New Orleans
• Jalen Hurts is out for the season, and what 36 hours without sleep did to his London numbers: 69 to 42 percent completions, +0.38 to -0.32 EPA per attempt, 7.6 to 4.1 yards per attempt
• Monday Night Football: Commanders at 49ers, with Curtis on the matchup he likes

Chapters

00:00 Intro
00:45 Atlanta's failure to launch
08:43 Cowboys issues
12:58 Penalties are out of control
18:16 Subscribe
18:42 Steelers end of game clock management
23:44 Giant catastrophe
27:57 Jalen Hurts, 36 hours with no sleep
32:21 Free newsletter
32:53 Monday Night Football: Commanders at 49ers, with Curtis
44:26 Wrap-up and a look at Week 7

Free NFL stats tools: Pass Rate Over Expected and more, free on the new stats page: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/stats-nfl/

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NFL Week 6 best bets, player props and picks for Cowboys at Packers, Bears at Falcons, Texans at Jaguars in London, Cardinals at Rams and Steelers at Buccaneers, plus the Week 6 referee report and three big college football games.

Warren Sharp opens with three keys to the Week 6 betting board: the Green Bay defense facing Dallas, the first half angle on short road favorites, and Houston in London. Ryan McCrystal breaks down Alabama at Tennessee, Notre Dame at BYU and Ohio State at Indiana. Rich Hribar brings three props, two from Cardinals at Rams and one from Steelers at Buccaneers. Joe Gibbs runs the referee report for Ravens at Browns and Cowboys at Packers on Sunday Night Football. Warren closes with his best bet of the week, 39-15 lifetime on this show.

Free week of OddsJam with code WARREN, then 40% off your first month: oddsjam.com

• Why Green Bay's defensive numbers need context, and the schedule behind them
• The first half angle on short road favorites
• How Houston should attack Jacksonville in London
• What decides Alabama at Tennessee, Notre Dame at BYU and Ohio State at Indiana
• How the Week 6 referee crews call games, and which teams it helps
• Warren's best bet of the week and the matchup behind it
• The free pass rate over expected and stats tools on the Sharp site

00:00 Week 6 best bets and player props: the preview
01:07 Cowboys at Packers: Green Bay's backup QB schedule
06:05 Short road favorites: the first half angle
07:26 Texans at Jaguars in London
11:56 College football with Ryan McCrystal
12:19 Alabama at Tennessee
14:42 Notre Dame at BYU
18:22 Ohio State at Indiana
22:50 Rich Hribar prop 1: Cardinals at Rams
25:58 Rich Hribar prop 2: Cardinals at Rams
30:02 Rich Hribar prop 3: Steelers at Buccaneers
32:44 Pass rate over expected and the free stats tools
34:50 The Week 6 referee report with Joe Gibbs
35:25 Ravens at Browns: the referee crew
38:07 Cowboys at Packers on Sunday night: the referee crew
41:51 Warren's best bet of the week: Bears at Falcons

Rich Hribar, Ryan McCrystal, Joe Gibbs

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NFL Week 6 preview and matchups: Cowboys at Packers on Sunday Night Football, Bears at Falcons, Texans vs Jaguars in London and Steelers at Buccaneers. The pressure rates, personnel splits, run game numbers and coverages that decide each game, plus two sneaky matchups: 49ers at Commanders and Saints at Giants.

Jordan Love, Matt LaFleur, Tucker Kraft, Dak Prescott, Bijan Robinson, Montez Sweat, Caleb Williams, Ben Johnson, C.J. Stroud, Woody Marks, Aaron Rodgers, Todd Bowles, Brock Purdy, Cam Skattebo.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

• How Green Bay stopped getting Jordan Love hit, and the personnel and play action change behind it
• Why the way Dallas defends heavy sets plays right into the Packers' hands
• Why the Cowboys offense is the biggest test the Green Bay defense has seen all year
• How bad the Bears run defense really is once you look at who it has faced, and what Bijan Robinson does on outside zone
• What happens to Chicago's run defense when Montez Sweat is off the field
• Caleb Williams inside the pocket vs outside it, and why Atlanta wants him to drop back
• The run game mismatch in London: Houston's ground game against a Jacksonville front that has not been tested
• Why the Jaguars are a pass funnel, and what that opens up for C.J. Stroud
• Aaron Rodgers against Todd Bowles: the quick game, the blitz and the coverage he has struggled with
• Brock Purdy against base defense, and why Washington plays so much of it
• The one run concept the Saints shut down, and why the Giants run it so often

CHAPTERS

00:00 Week 6: what you need to know
00:46 MATCHUP 1: Jordan Love vs the Cowboys defense
03:49 How Green Bay fixed the protection
07:27 The Cowboys offense vs Green Bay
08:57 Subscribe
09:19 MATCHUP 2: Bijan Robinson vs the Bears run defense
14:20 Montez Sweat on and off the field
16:03 Caleb Williams and the Bears offense
19:17 MATCHUP 3: Texans run game vs the Jaguars, London
26:39 Rich's Worksheets
27:34 MATCHUP 4: Aaron Rodgers vs Todd Bowles
31:12 Tampa Bay's Cover 3 and Rodgers
33:11 SNEAKY: Brock Purdy vs Washington's base defense
35:27 SNEAKY: Giants run game vs the Saints
38:22 Wrap

Watch the show on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vGRyoc6V2A

Rich writes a full Worksheet preview for every game, every week: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/the-worksheet/

Hosted by Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) and Rich Hribar (@LordReebs). New shows every week: Matchups on Thursday, Best Bets on Friday, the recap on Monday.

X: @SharpFootball • @LordReebs • @SharpFBAnalysis
Web: sharpfootballanalysis.com

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NFL Week 5 takeaways from the numbers. The Seahawks handed the 49ers all three touchdowns on turnovers and still finished last in the week in EPA per play, the Commanders led 12 to 3 at the half and let the Giants run the best second half of any offense, the Chargers offense broke in Denver and the Broncos won anyway, the Browns ran one shotgun look into the blitz for four quarters, and LaFleur finally threw over the loaded box. Plus a best bet for Monday Night Football, Rams at Bills, with Curtis.

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What You'll Learn

• Seattle gave up three touchdowns off turnovers and ranked last in EPA per play, series conversion and plays per drive
• The Seahawks' early down runs produced -0.66 EPA per rush, the worst in the week, with a 13.8 percent drop rate, the highest
• The Giants went from a 20 percent first half success rate, worst in the week, to 61.5 percent in the second half, the best
• Washington's coverage flipped at halftime: man coverage from 22 to 43 percent, two high from 50 to 18 percent, and Jameis Winston went +0.67 EPA per attempt with three touchdowns
• Jayden Daniels was blitzed on 73.3 percent of dropbacks, the highest rate any quarterback faced
• Harbaugh's Chargers used two back sets on 41.3 percent of snaps, the most in the week, and Justin Herbert's sack plus interception rate was 21.4 percent, the highest
• Denver ranked last in third down conversion and pass success rate and won
• Cleveland lined up in shotgun on 96.9 percent of snaps against a 56.1 percent blitz rate and took 8 sacks
• Green Bay saw 7 or more in the box on 89.8 percent of snaps and Jordan Love averaged 11.8 yards per attempt over it
• Chicago turned it over on 41.7 percent of drives with backup quarterbacks, and what the last three weeks say about Caleb Williams
• The Steelers put 8 in the box on 75 percent of Colts runs against a 39 percent league average
• Monday Night Football: Rams at Bills, with Curtis on the matchup he likes

Chapters

00:00 Intro
00:20 Seahawks gave away the game
05:19 Commanders defense let down again
11:13 Herbert and a broken Chargers offense
15:57 The Broncos won with the worst offense of the week
18:43 Browns ran one shotgun look into the blitz
21:43 Subscribe
22:22 LaFleur finally gets it
24:57 The Bears gave it away, and need Caleb Williams back
28:58 Texans step up in London
31:20 Steelers did not respect Daniel Jones
33:24 The free newsletter
34:28 Monday Night Football: Rams at Bills, with Curtis
46:44 Wrap-up

Watch the show on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bahxb0Z9IZ4

More Resources

Free NFL stats tools, Pass Rate Over Expected and more: sharpfootballanalysis.com/stats-nfl
Weekly, monthly and full season packages: sharpfootballanalysis.com/packages

X: @SharpFootball and @SharpFBAnalysis
YouTube: Sharp Football Analysis

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NFL Week 5 best bets, player props and referee picks, plus three of the biggest college football games of the weekend. It starts with three keys that decide how you bet the weekend: Sam Darnold against a 49ers defense that takes away the middle of the field, the Bengals possibly without Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins and why that might help Chase Brown against a Dolphins run defense with a split, and the Bears running outside zone at a Packers defense that cannot stop it. Then Ryan McCrystal on Alabama at Georgia, Oklahoma vs Texas and UCLA at Oregon, Rich Hribar with three props including Monday night, Joe Gibbs on the referees for Lions at Cardinals, Ravens at Falcons and Bills at Rams, and the best bet of the week to close.

$5 for all of our Week 5 NFL picks with code WEEK5: https://sharp.football
Free week of OddsJam with code WARREN.
Watch the show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DlVpbB-tBa0

00:00 What is on the show this week
01:17 Who wins the middle of the field
05:41 Could losing the receivers help Chase Brown?
09:12 Outside zone against Green Bay
12:58 Ryan McCrystal on three college games
23:50 $5 for Week 5 with code WEEK5
24:45 Rich Hribar's three props
31:55 Joe Gibbs on the Week 5 referees
41:57 OddsJam
42:37 Best bet of the week
50:05 Good luck this weekend

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NFL Week 5 matchups, stats and betting angles: 49ers at Seahawks, Eagles vs Jaguars in London, Colts at Steelers, Raiders at Patriots. The coverages, pressure rates and personnel splits that decide each game, plus two sneaky games: Bears at Packers and Vikings at Saints.

This week only: every pick, every prop and every Worksheet for $5 with code WEEK5: https://sharp.football

Brock Purdy, Mike Macdonald, Sam Darnold, Nick Bosa, Raheem Morris, Jalen Hurts, Aaron Rodgers, Drake Maye, TreVeyon Henderson, Jordan Love, Tyler Shough, Brian Flores.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

• Why Mike Macdonald's defense is the one Brock Purdy has never solved, and the two coverages it comes down to
• What the 49ers pass rush turns into without Nick Bosa, and how Raheem Morris is coaching around it
• Why Sam Darnold is about to see exactly what he is worst against
• The reason the Eagles do not want to throw, and why they cannot run either
• What Jacksonville does to teams in the first half, and what Philadelphia does in the second
• The coverage every defense is now playing against Aaron Rodgers, and whether Indianapolis will follow
• Where the Colts pass defense is open, and the Steelers receiver who lives there
• What Drake Maye cleaned up last week, and the problem that did not go away
• Why nobody in New England is making yards for him
• How Green Bay fixed Jordan Love, and why Chicago is built the same way
• What Brian Flores does to rookie quarterbacks, and what Tyler Shough does when blitzed

CHAPTERS

00:00 Cold open: Week 5, what you need to know
01:24 MATCHUP 1: Brock Purdy vs Mike Macdonald's defense
05:44 Sam Darnold vs the 49ers defense without Bosa
11:32 Subscribe
12:14 MATCHUP 2: Eagles offense vs Jaguars defense, London
20:36 $5 for every pick and every Worksheet, code WEEK5
21:46 MATCHUP 3: Aaron Rodgers vs the Colts defense
27:15 The Worksheet
27:41 MATCHUP 4: Drake Maye vs the Raiders defense
33:36 SNEAKY: the Packers' fix, and the Bears
37:04 SNEAKY: Tyler Shough vs Brian Flores
40:51 Wrap

Watch the show on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@WarrenSharp

Rich writes a full Worksheet preview for every game, every week: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/

Hosted by Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) and Rich Hribar (@LordReebs). New shows every week: Matchups on Thursday, Best Bets on Friday, the recap on Monday.

X: @SharpFootball • @LordReebs • @SharpFBAnalysis
Web: sharpfootballanalysis.com

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NFL Week 4 takeaways from the numbers. The most penalties in any NFL week since 2015 and record offensive flags in the red zone, the Texans blew a 10 point lead because they cannot run, the Eagles went three and out five times in the second half, the Rams won while playing left handed, and the Bengals offense fell apart without Ja'Marr Chase. Plus a best bet for tonight's Monday Night Football with Curtis.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

• 17 penalties per game in Week 4, the most in any week since 2015 and the most after September since 2005
• Offenses flagged 6.18 times per 100 snaps, the most through four weeks since 2000, with record red zone penalties
• How Houston built a 16-6 lead from under center, then went 72% shotgun and ran six times in the second half
• Dallas in the second half: 56% success, +0.50 EPA per play, a first down on 41% of snaps, all number one
• Jalen Hurts on third down: 8.4 yards to go, 90% of throws short of the sticks, one completion
• Rams by personnel: -0.14 EPA per play in 11, +0.87 in 12, +0.98 in 13, and the second half run game that won it
• The Bengals with and without Chase: +0.40 to +0.04 EPA per attempt, 89% to 69% completions
• Bo Nix: 24 first half attempts at 3.9 yards each, 41% of throws at or behind the line
• The new free stats page and the Pass Rate Over Expected tool
• Monday Night Football: Falcons at Saints, with Curtis on the matchup he likes

CHAPTERS
00:00 Intro
00:32 The refs: 17 penalties per game and record offensive flags
08:27 Subscribe
09:04 Texans can't run and it cost them
12:32 The Cowboys second half offense
15:00 Strength of schedule: Texans and Jaguars
15:53 Eagles offense still broken
18:14 Rams played left handed and won
20:32 Ja'Marr Chase injury was massive for Cincy
23:57 What is the Broncos offense doing?
28:57 Monday Night Football: Falcons at Saints, with Curtis
31:48 The new free stats page and Pass Rate Over Expected tool
38:23 Wrap-up

GET THE FREE NEWSLETTER
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FREE NFL STATS TOOLS
Pass Rate Over Expected and more, free on the new stats page: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/stats-nfl/

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NFL Week 4 best bets, player props and referee picks, plus three of the biggest college football games of the weekend. Warren Sharp opens with three matchups that decide how you bet the weekend, then Ryan McCrystal on the Saturday college slate, Rich Hribar with three favorite props including the first London game of the year, Joe Gibbs on the Week 4 referee crews, and the best bet of the week to close.

50% off any season long or monthly package with code SHOW50: https://sharp.football

Covered in this episode: Brian Flores, Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Daniel Jones, Brad Allen, Craig Wrolstad, Land Clark.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN
• Why the number one blitz rate in the NFL on early downs is a problem for a quarterback who has not faced an above average blitz yet
• The play action split that makes one offense look like two different teams, and the defense that is elite without it and bottom five against it
• Why a pass rush that gets home on 59% of third downs only gets there on 25% of early downs, and what that means for a quarterback who is barely pressured
• Three college games where a coordinator change, a missed tackle rate and a quarterback holding the ball decide the number
• How three referee crews are calling penalties this season and which teams it helps

CHAPTERS
00:00 What is on the show this week
01:39 Why this show is more than the bets
02:52 Brian Flores gets the team that fired him
05:36 The play action lever Las Vegas is not pulling
11:04 Trevor versus time
14:20 Ryan McCrystal on three college games
23:14 50% off with code SHOW50
24:20 Rich Hribar's three props
34:01 Joe Gibbs on the Week 4 referees
42:50 OddsJam
43:19 Best bet of the week
52:14 Back on Monday
 

Watch the full show on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7s695JYfdg

PROMO CODES
SHOW50 for 50% off any season long or monthly betting package at https://sharp.football
WARREN at OddsJam for a free week trial and 40% off the first month: https://oddsjam.com/nfl/screen/moneyline?promo=warren

GUESTS
Ryan McCrystal, college football betting analyst, Sharp Football Analysis
Rich Hribar, Sharp Football Analysis
Joe Gibbs, referee analyst, Sharp Football Analysis

MORE RESOURCES
Sharp Football Analysis: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com
Betting packages: https://sharp.football

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Sharp Football Analysis on X: @SharpFBAnalysis
YouTube: @SharpFootballAnalysis

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Warren Sharp and Rich Hribar break down the four matchups that decide Week 4, plus two under-the-radar games nobody is talking about.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

• Why the Eagles pass defense ranking is a mirage, and the three quarterbacks it was built on
• The coverage Vic Fangio has quietly taken away from Matthew Stafford in every meeting
• Where Sean McVay gets Kyren Williams the box count he never sees anywhere else
• The one formation split that explains the entire Joe Burrow vs Jacksonville matchup
• What happens to the Jaguars pass defense when the pass rush does not get home
• The Buffalo coverage call that broke Drake Maye last season, and whether a new coordinator goes back to it
• What Drake Maye actually does well, and the exact moment in a dropback when it falls apart
• The change D'Amico Ryans has made in Houston, and why Dallas is built to attack it
• What Nico Collins is worth to C.J. Stroud
• The play action split that should decide Chiefs at Raiders
• Why the Chargers offensive line is walking into the worst possible building

50% off monthly and full season packages with code SHOW50 at sharp.football

CHAPTERS
00:00 Cold open
00:30 Welcome, and the week ahead
00:59 MATCHUP 1: Rams offense vs the Eagles defense
10:27 The schedule Jalen Hurts has actually faced
13:53 Subscribe
14:32 MATCHUP 2: Joe Burrow vs the Jaguars defense
19:40 The pass protections Jacksonville has faced
22:09 50% off monthly and full season packages, code SHOW50
23:37 MATCHUP 3: Drake Maye vs the Bills pass defense
25:06 The Cover 6 blueprint
30:25 The Worksheet
31:00 MATCHUP 4: the Texans defense vs Dak Prescott
35:43 What Nico Collins is worth to C.J. Stroud
37:46 SNEAKY: Raiders play action vs the Chiefs
40:13 SNEAKY: Seahawks pass rush vs Justin Herbert
42:36 Wrap

Rich writes a full Worksheet preview for every game, every week at sharpfootballanalysis.com

New shows every week: Matchups on Thursday, Best Bets on Friday, the recap on Monday.

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NFL Week 3 takeaways from the numbers. Dallas mismanaged the clock at the Baltimore 7, the Chargers got 5 Buffalo turnovers and did not even cover, and halftime adjustments decided several games. Plus a few best bets for Monday Night Football, Eagles at Bears, with Curtis.

What You'll Learn

• Why the Cowboys' timeout with 15 seconds left, the throwaway and the touchback handed Baltimore a chance
• Derrick Henry's short yardage numbers: 53% first down rate on 75 runs, ranked 70th of 73 backs
• How teams plus 4 in turnovers with 3 or fewer punts were 151-3 straight up since 1990, and the Chargers still lost
• The four Chargers drives inside the Bills 30 that produced three field goals, a miss and an interception
• Mike McCarthy's halftime change: shotgun from 73% to 52%, third downs from 7.2 to 4.3 yards to go
• Why Cincinnati saw the lightest boxes of the week and still ran only 16 times
• Jacksonville's run game against the Patriots, and why New England's early down runs against light boxes had a 0% success rate
• Drake Maye holding the ball 3.3 seconds and the lowest third down passer rating of the week
• How Seattle threw for 393 yards, outgained Washington 6.8 to 4.0 yards per play, and lost
• Marcus Mariota pressured on 54% of dropbacks with 0 interceptions and 3 touchdowns
• Bryce Young against man coverage versus zone
• Monday Night Football: Eagles at Bears, with Curtis on the angles he is watching

Chapters

00:00 Intro
00:44 The Cowboys botched the end of the game in Baltimore
03:53 Derrick Henry in short yardage
07:06 How did the Chargers not even cover?
12:25 Subscribe and the Best Bet record
13:17 Steelers offensive tweaks at halftime
13:39 Cincinnati saw light boxes and still rarely ran
15:56 What happened to the Patriots offense?
20:25 The Commanders unlikely win over Seattle
23:37 Bryce Young was fine against man coverage
25:08 Monday Night Football: Eagles at Bears, with Curtis
33:59 Subscribe to the free newsletter
34:39 Wrap-up

Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTi_Vlrn9kI

Get the free newsletter: every article we write, plus free bets and player props, sent straight to your inbox. Sign up at sharp.football

Get the full slate: weekly, monthly and full season packages at sharpfootballanalysis.com/packages

Guests: Curtis Hirsch

Twitter/X: @SharpFBAnalysis
YouTube: Sharp Football Analysis
Website: sharpfootballanalysis.com

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.