Sharp Football Analysis by Warren Sharp

NFL Week 9 takeaways from the numbers with Warren Sharp. Drake Maye finally met the schedule: pressured on 44 percent of dropbacks, hit 8 times, 3 interceptions, and New England turned it over on 28.6 percent of its drives while Green Bay turned it over on none. The Packers keep winning the first quarter and the first half. Cincinnati needed a fast start against a Falcons team that is 4-44 since 2019 when trailing by 3 at halftime, and opened Madrid with three straight touchdown drives, the best start of the Joe Burrow era. Jordan Love, the most underrated passer in the NFL entering the year, and the Packers defense. Denver beat Carolina and the Broncos offense has an opening. Plus Curtis on Monday Night Football, Bills at Vikings.

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Players and coaches discussed: Drake Maye, Mike Vrabel, Jordan Love, Matt LaFleur, Joe Burrow, Bo Nix, Sean Payton, Josh Allen, Carson Wentz, Kevin O'Connell.

• Drake Maye vs Green Bay: pressured on 44 percent of dropbacks (25th), hit 8 times, 3 interceptions (26th)
• Mike Vrabel's offense dropped back on 74.1 percent of first half early downs, second in the week, and those dropbacks averaged -0.35 EPA through three quarters
• New England turned it over on 4 of 14 drives, a 28.6 percent rate, and Green Bay turned it over on 0 percent of its drives
• Green Bay scored on 57.1 percent of its drives to New England's 28.6, and New England had the best explosive play rate in the week, 19.7 percent, and lost by 18
• Total margin entering the second quarter: Bears +51, 49ers +36, Packers +33. Entering halftime: Jaguars +72, 49ers +48, Bears and Packers +39
• The Falcons since 2019: 4-44 when trailing by 3 or more at halftime, the worst record in the NFL, and 32-12 when leading by 3 or more
• Cincinnati's first three drives in Madrid: 75 yards, 70 yards, 88 yards, three touchdowns, 78 yards per drive, the second best start by any team this year
• In the Joe Burrow era that 78 yards per drive is the best opening three drives of 115 games, one of four with three straight touchdown drives
• Bengals and Steelers are both 6-2, one is the lowest division winner seed and the other is the 6 seed, and they meet on Sunday night
• Jordan Love last season: hit on 14.5 percent of dropbacks, a career high, quick hit at a career high rate, no receiver reached 725 yards, and the Packers still made the playoffs
• The Broncos offensive opportunity after the win in Carolina
• Monday Night Football: Bills at Vikings, with Curtis on the matchup he likes

00:00 Intro
01:37 Drake Maye vs the schedule
04:17 Packers fast starts
07:24 Bengals needed to start fast, and did
15:10 Subscribe
16:41 Jordan Love and the Packers defense
22:38 Broncos offensive opportunity
25:54 Free newsletter
26:52 Monday Night Football: Bills at Vikings, with Curtis
43:50 Wrap-up

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NFL Week 9 best bets, player props and picks for Bengals at Falcons in Spain, Jets at Chiefs, Lions at Dolphins, Cardinals at Seahawks, Broncos at Panthers, Packers at Patriots and Bills at Vikings on Monday Night Football, plus the Week 9 referee report.

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Warren Sharp opens in Spain. Cincinnati has been slow in first quarters, and Atlanta gives up on the run when it falls behind, so the start of this game matters. Then Jets at Chiefs, a big step down in class for Kansas City with Rashee Rice back, and Lions at Dolphins, a sneaky trap spot in Detroit's only road game in seven weeks. Rich Hribar brings three props from Lions at Dolphins, Cardinals at Seahawks and Broncos at Panthers. Joe Gibbs is back live with the referee report for Packers at Patriots with Alex Kemp and Bills at Vikings with Carl Cheffers on Monday night. Warren closes with his best bet of the week, 41-16 lifetime on this show.

What You'll Learn
• Why the Bengals have to start fast in Spain, and what Atlanta does when it falls behind
• How big a step down in class the Jets are for the Chiefs offense
• Why Lions at Dolphins sets up as a trap spot
• How Alex Kemp's crews have treated favorites since 2024, and his over record in non-conference games
• What Carl Cheffers means for home dogs, and the Bills offense against the least penalized defense in the league
• Warren's best bet of the week and the matchup behind it

Chapters
00:00 Week 9 best bets and player props: the preview
00:55 Bengals at Falcons in Spain: why Cincinnati has to start fast
04:21 Jets at Chiefs: a big step down in class for Kansas City
08:40 Lions at Dolphins: a sneaky trap spot
13:10 Rich Hribar prop 1: Lions at Dolphins
14:57 Rich Hribar prop 2: Cardinals at Seahawks
17:35 Rich Hribar prop 3: Broncos at Panthers
20:01 The Week 9 referee report with Joe Gibbs
20:27 Packers at Patriots: referee Alex Kemp
24:03 Bills at Vikings on Monday night: referee Carl Cheffers
28:57 Warren's best bet of the week: Bengals at Falcons

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Guests
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NFL Week 9 preview and matchups: Bengals vs Falcons in Madrid, Buccaneers at Bears on Sunday night, Packers at Patriots and Broncos at Panthers. Joe Burrow against a Falcons defense that just got James Pearce back, Ben Johnson against Todd Bowles for the third time, Drake Maye finally facing a top pass defense again, Bo Nix and the Broncos run game against a Panthers defense with a new play caller, plus two sneaky matchups: can the Bills run on the Vikings on Monday night, and the Lions run game at Miami.

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Players and coaches covered: Joe Burrow, Michael Penix, James Pearce, Tee Higgins, Drake London, Ben Johnson, Todd Bowles, Caleb Williams, Baker Mayfield, D'Andre Swift, Drake Maye, Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, Christian Watson, Bo Nix, Jonah Coleman, J.K. Dobbins, Todd Wash, Jahmyr Gibbs.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

• The Bengals are the number one pass rate over expectation offense in the NFL, and why the Falcons defense has not seen anything like it yet
• How Joe Burrow throws, why he is so hard to pressure, and what happens to the Falcons when they do not get home
• Burrow against single-high coverage, which is what Atlanta plays
• James Pearce is back for the Falcons after an eight-game suspension
• Can Michael Penix bounce back after the Tampa rain game, and why the Bengals are a pressure-sensitive defense
• The Bengals have allowed career highs to the last two quarterbacks they faced
• The Bears offense has played the third toughest schedule of defenses in the NFL and earned its numbers
• Ben Johnson vs Todd Bowles: the 2023 playoff game, the 2024 game and where those Lions drives died
• Caleb Williams is second in the NFL in completion rate, and how he handles the Bucs' mug fronts
• Baker Mayfield has seven total completions in his last two games, and what the Bears' boom-or-bust pass defense does with that
• D'Andre Swift against the Bucs run defense on Sunday night
• Drake Maye has faced the easiest schedule of pass defenses in the NFL since Week 4, what he did against three top-10 defenses in Weeks 1 to 3, and now comes Green Bay's number two pass defense
• Maye on throws 10 or more yards downfield, and how the Packers defend them
• The Packers are still throwing with Josh Jacobs back, and the Patriots pass defense is 14th despite a top-10 schedule
• Jordan Love has completed 51 percent of his passes against man coverage, Christian Watson has struggled with it, and the Patriots play a lot of it
• The Broncos run game has played a brutal schedule, including two games against Kansas City's number one run defense, and now gets the 30th ranked run defense in Carolina
• Denver's bye week letdown spot: after this week they get a bye, then the Raiders twice and Miami
• Jonah Coleman is the new lead back in Denver, and Carolina has a new play caller on defense in Todd Wash
• Carolina's run defense is boom or bust: two blow-up games against the Bears and Bucs, and what J.K. Dobbins has done this season
• The Bills do not have to change their personnel to run on the Vikings the way other teams do, and teams keep running on Minnesota: the Colts 29 times, the Lions 34 backfield runs, the Bears 26
• The Vikings run defense wears down late in games
• Miami's run defense is number one against one look and number 32 against another, and which one Detroit runs
• Detroit's one real road trip of the season, and the home stretch on either side of it

CHAPTERS

00:00 Week 9: what you need to know
00:33 MATCHUP 1: Joe Burrow's Bengals offense vs the Falcons defense (Madrid)
05:32 Michael Penix vs the Bengals pass defense
10:10 Subscribe
10:45 MATCHUP 2: Ben Johnson vs Todd Bowles, the Bears offense vs the Bucs defense
20:41 Can the Bucs punch back? Baker Mayfield vs the Bears defense
25:33 Season-long packages: 40 percent off with code SHOW40
26:26 MATCHUP 3: Drake Maye vs the schedule, the Patriots offense vs the Packers defense
32:00 Jordan Love vs the Patriots pass defense
36:46 Rich's Worksheets: every game, every week
37:46 MATCHUP 4: The Broncos run game vs the Panthers run defense
40:39 What changed: Jonah Coleman and Carolina's new play caller
45:02 SNEAKY: Can the Bills run on the Vikings? (Monday night)
49:36 SNEAKY: The Lions run game at Miami
52:33 Wrap

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NFL Week 8 takeaways from the numbers with Warren Sharp. Minnesota put seven in the box on 88 percent of Detroit's snaps and blitzed Jared Goff on 79 percent of his dropbacks, both the most in the week, and the Lions ran for 218 yards anyway as Jahmyr Gibbs went from 3.4 yards a carry in the first half to 9.7 in the second. Baker Mayfield completed 0 passes and Tampa Bay won. Dallas led Arizona 17-3, ran it 15 times for 1.9 a carry on second half early downs, threw on the drive that should have ended the game and lost in overtime. Denver finally gave the ball to Jonah Coleman and beat Kansas City, Buffalo beat Baltimore 36-10, and the AFC picture changed. Plus Curtis on Monday Night Football, Bears at Seahawks.

The show opens with a tribute to Brendan Donahue, our mock draft expert, who passed away last week at 45. The most accurate mock drafter in the nation for seven straight years and a friend to everyone at Sharp Football. We will miss him.

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Players and coaches discussed: Jahmyr Gibbs, Jared Goff, Dan Campbell, Baker Mayfield, Michael Penix, Dak Prescott, Gardner Minshew, George Pickens, Brian Schottenheimer, Jonah Coleman, J.K. Dobbins, Bo Nix, Sean Payton, Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins, Caleb Williams, Sam Darnold.

• Minnesota put 7 plus in the box on 88 percent of Detroit's snaps and blitzed Goff on 79 percent of dropbacks, both the most any offense saw this week
• Detroit ran for 218 yards at 6.4 a carry anyway, both second in the week, with the top elusiveness rating of the week, 19.4
• Gibbs by half: 3.4 yards a carry, -0.49 EPA per rush and 18 percent success before the break, 9.7, +0.40 and 75 percent after it, against the same boxes
• The fix was inside zone: two first half inside zone runs went 19 and 12, Detroit doubled the calls after halftime and averaged 14.8 a carry on them
• Baker Mayfield completed 0 passes, Tampa Bay has won two straight on 7 total completions
• Arizona's first seven drives: punt, downs, interception, punt, field goal, fumble, punt, then four touchdowns in the final 17 minutes with Gardner Minshew
• Up 24-17 at the Arizona 16 with 4:13 left, Dallas ran, threw a 1 yard pass, threw incomplete on third and 11 and kicked. Up 27-24 at the 20, same result. Arizona tied it with 10 seconds left
• Dallas second half early downs: 15 runs at 1.9 a carry and -0.31 EPA, 14 dropbacks at 8.3 yards per attempt and +0.26 EPA, and the run calls kept coming
• Dallas motion fell from 55.6 percent of first half snaps to 7.1 percent, and George Pickens was targeted less than backup TE Brevin Spann-Ford
• The Broncos finally went to Jonah Coleman against the Chiefs
• Buffalo 36, Baltimore 10, and what the AFC looks like through Week 8
• Monday Night Football: Bears at Seahawks, with Curtis on the matchup he likes

00:00 Intro
00:18 Remembering Brendan Donahue
02:49 Jahmyr Gibbs is special
05:13 Cowboys epic failure
12:26 Two blowouts that taught us nothing
16:01 The AFC picture
19:12 Broncos finally went to Jonah Coleman
21:54 Night night for the Ravens
23:30 Monday Night Football: Bears at Seahawks, with Curtis
32:14 Wrap-up

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NFL Week 8 best bets, player props and picks for Ravens at Bills, Browns at Steelers, Colts at Jaguars, Titans at Bengals, Chiefs at Broncos and Bears at Seahawks on Monday Night Football, plus the Week 8 referee report.

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Warren Sharp opens with strength of schedule. Seven weeks in, who has played the easiest and hardest schedules, and who has the softest road the rest of the way? Then the Steelers backfield, Jaylen Warren vs Rico Dowdle, in Browns at Steelers, and Parker Washington against the Colts' slot defense in Colts at Jaguars. Rich Hribar brings three props from Titans at Bengals, Colts at Jaguars and Bears at Seahawks, with the Jeffery Simmons trade in play. Joe Gibbs runs the referee report for Ravens at Bills and Bears at Seahawks on Monday Night Football. Warren closes with his best bet of the week, 40-16 lifetime on this show.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

• Which teams have played the easiest and hardest schedules so far, and who has the easiest road from here
• Why Jaylen Warren should get the lion's share of the Steelers backfield
• How Parker Washington matches up with the Colts' slot defense
• How the Jeffery Simmons trade changes Titans at Bengals and Bears at Seahawks
• How Clay Martin's and Shawn Smith's crews call games, and Seattle's record with Smith
• Warren's best bet of the week and the matchup behind it

CHAPTERS

00:00 Week 8 best bets and player props: the preview
00:53 Strength of schedule: who has had it easy, and who has it easy next
07:56 Browns at Steelers: Jaylen Warren vs Rico Dowdle
12:47 Colts at Jaguars: Parker Washington and the Colts' slot defense
19:06 Rich Hribar prop 1: Titans at Bengals
22:29 Rich Hribar prop 2: Colts at Jaguars
24:21 Rich Hribar prop 3: Bears at Seahawks
27:49 The Week 8 referee report with Joe Gibbs
28:11 Ravens at Bills: the referee crew
31:55 Bears at Seahawks on Monday night: the referee crew
36:56 Warren's best bet of the week: Chiefs at Broncos

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NFL Week 8 preview and matchups: Ravens at Bills, Vikings at Lions, Chiefs at Broncos and Falcons at Buccaneers. Lamar Jackson's return against a Bills defense giving up points, Jared Goff against the Brian Flores blitz, Bo Nix against Steve Spagnuolo and the numbers that decide each one, plus two sneaky matchups: Sam Darnold vs the Bears on Monday night and the Patriots passing game at Miami.

Josh Allen, D.J. Moore, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Jared Goff, Brian Flores, Jahmyr Gibbs, Bo Nix, Sean Payton, Steve Spagnuolo, Patrick Mahomes, Kenneth Walker, Bijan Robinson, Michael Penix, Baker Mayfield, Todd Bowles, Sam Darnold.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

• Why the Ravens defense has not faced a real passing offense yet, and what happened the two times it did
• How Josh Allen's downfield passing changes with D.J. Moore on the field
• The Bills defense is allowing the most points per drive in the NFL, and what Lamar Jackson's return does to that
• Derrick Henry's numbers with Lamar on the field and what Baltimore's offense looked like in his last half of football
• Zay Flowers in the slot against a Buffalo defense that struggles with slot receivers
• Brian Flores is blitzing at a rate the league has never seen, and how Jared Goff has handled the blitz this year versus last year's meetings
• Why Jahmyr Gibbs keeps getting stuck in pass protection against Minnesota
• Denver has played the hardest schedule of defenses in the NFL, and why the offense is still last in the league in four categories
• How Bo Nix handled the Arizona blitz and the downfield throws he missed
• Patrick Mahomes' Week 1 air yards against Denver and the Chiefs' passing game since
• Kenneth Walker's 173 yards at Denver in Week 1 and whether the Broncos run defense has changed
• Can Bijan Robinson run on Tampa Bay, and what Michael Penix does with a quick-release passing game
• Baker Mayfield playing through a thumb injury against the Falcons pass defense
• Sam Darnold against the Bears pass defense on Monday night, and the trades both teams just made
• The Patriots passing game against a Miami defense that cannot cover tight ends

CHAPTERS

00:00 Week 8: what you need to know
00:56 MATCHUP 1: Josh Allen's Bills offense vs the Ravens defense
08:09 Lamar Jackson's return: the Ravens offense vs the Bills defense
14:35 Subscribe
15:04 MATCHUP 2: Jared Goff vs the Brian Flores blitz
22:09 Jahmyr Gibbs vs the Vikings
27:29 Splash Sports: the $100K NFL Bloody Survivor
28:25 MATCHUP 3: Sean Payton's Broncos offense vs Steve Spagnuolo
33:43 Kenneth Walker vs the Broncos run defense
39:14 MATCHUP 4: Can Bijan run? The Falcons offense vs the Bucs defense
46:35 SNEAKY: Sam Darnold vs the Bears pass defense
50:19 SNEAKY: The Patriots passing game vs the Dolphins
52:56 Wrap

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NFL Week 7 takeaways from the numbers with Warren Sharp. Seattle took Kenneth Walker out of the game after he led the NFL in yards per carry, rushing yards, explosive rate and EPA through six weeks, and Kansas City became the only offense in the week that never reached the red zone. The Dolphins beat Aaron Glenn and the Jets, Baltimore keeps owning first halves and losing second halves, Cincinnati went from 0 first half points to 35 after the break, Sean Payton and Bo Nix beat Arizona with a quarterback as the leading rusher, the 49ers punted once in nine drives and still lost in Atlanta, Tampa Bay has faced the hardest schedule of pass defenses in the league, and Houston punted six times against the Giants. Plus Curtis on Monday Night Football, Cowboys at Eagles.

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Players and coaches discussed: Kenneth Walker, Patrick Mahomes, Mike Macdonald, Sam Darnold, Aaron Glenn, Malik Willis, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Declan Doyle, Joe Burrow, Bo Nix, Sean Payton, Michael Penix, Bijan Robinson, Raheem Morris, Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young, J.J. McCarthy, DeMeco Ryans, Dak Prescott, Tanner McKee, Saquon Barkley.

• Kenneth Walker through six weeks: 6.3 yards per carry, 665 rushing yards, a 14.2 percent explosive rate and +0.16 EPA per rush, all first in the NFL
• What Seattle did differently: a light box on 57 percent of his runs instead of 20, an 8 plus man box on 21 percent instead of 48
• Kansas City reached the red zone on 0 percent of its drives, scored 0.38 points per drive and gained a first down on 22 percent of its plays, all the lowest in the week
• Patrick Mahomes saw two high on 61.8 percent of dropbacks, held the ball 3 plus seconds on 44.1 percent and posted the lowest accurate throw rate in the week, 78.8 percent
• Seattle won on third down, 68.8 percent to 27.3, and is the first team since 1984 to hold its first seven opponents under 180 passing yards
• Miami ran 39 first half plays to the Jets' 18, converted 94.7 percent of its series and averaged +0.81 EPA per dropback, the best first half mark in the week
• Cincinnati's halves: 0 points and 3.1 yards per play before halftime, 35 points, 0.66 EPA per play and a 94.7 percent series conversion rate after it
• Baltimore first halves this season: 118 points and a +65 margin, both first. Second halves: 44 points and a -70 margin, second worst and last
• Bo Nix against the blitz in the first half: 3 of 8 for 9 yards, 0 percent success, -0.73 EPA per attempt
• Denver threw 20 plus air yards on 33.3 percent of attempts, the most in the week, and Nix hit 4 of 13 throws past 5 yards downfield
• The 49ers punted once on nine drives and still lost: two fumbles, a turnover on downs and two interceptions, four of them inside the Atlanta 30
• Atlanta scored on 60 percent of its drives, the best in the week
• Tampa Bay has faced the most difficult schedule of pass defenses in the NFL, five top 10 pass defenses in its last six games, and Atlanta is not one of them
• The Giants ran 22 personnel on 22 snaps, the most in the week, and J.J. McCarthy averaged 14.8 yards per attempt in the first half, the best mark in the week
• Houston's offense: 6 punts, the most in the week, 23.6 yards per drive and a first down on 22.2 percent of plays
• Monday Night Football: Cowboys at Eagles, with Curtis on the matchup he likes

00:00 Intro
00:15 Kenneth Walker grounded
05:30 Chiefs were dominated
09:12 Dolphins beat Aaron Glenn
12:35 Subscribe
13:10 Ravens, first half vs second half
21:09 Sean Payton and Bo Nix
25:41 49ers at Falcons
30:27 Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield's return
34:14 DeMeco Ryans' defense
38:06 Monday Night Football: Cowboys at Eagles, with Curtis
52:18 Wrap-up

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NFL Week 7 best bets, player props and picks for Chiefs at Seahawks on Sunday Night Football, Packers at Lions, Rams vs Raiders, Buccaneers at Panthers, Colts vs Vikings, Giants at Texans and 49ers at Falcons, plus the Week 7 referee report and three big college football games.

Warren Sharp opens with the Rams: 2-4 after the loss to Arizona, and without Davante Adams for months. What has to change against Las Vegas? Then Brian Flores, who pressures and blitzes like no one else, as Minnesota meets Daniel Jones and the Colts, and how Carolina should handle Todd Bowles' blitz in a big NFC South game. Ryan McCrystal breaks down Ole Miss at Texas, Houston at Utah and LSU at Auburn. Rich Hribar brings three props from Buccaneers at Panthers, Giants at Texans and 49ers at Falcons, and Warren shares his advice on betting through a slump. Joe Gibbs runs the referee report for Packers at Lions and Chiefs at Seahawks on Sunday Night Football. Warren closes with his best bet of the week, 39-16 lifetime on this show.

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• What the Rams have to change without Davante Adams
• Why Brian Flores blitzes like no one else, and what it means for the Colts
• How Carolina should attack Todd Bowles' blitz
• What decides Ole Miss at Texas, Houston at Utah and LSU at Auburn
• How the Week 7 referee crews call games, including John Hussey's record with home teams
• How to bet through a slump
• Warren's best bet of the week and the matchup behind it

00:00 Week 7 best bets and player props: the preview
01:13 Rams vs Raiders: the Rams without Davante Adams
08:19 Colts vs Vikings: Brian Flores and the blitz
10:43 Buccaneers at Panthers: beating Todd Bowles' blitz
13:18 College football with Ryan McCrystal
13:39 Ole Miss at Texas
18:15 Houston at Utah
20:20 LSU at Auburn
24:19 Rich Hribar prop 1: Buccaneers at Panthers
28:27 Rich Hribar prop 2: Giants at Texans
31:46 Rich Hribar prop 3: 49ers at Falcons
36:29 The Week 7 referee report with Joe Gibbs
37:05 Packers at Lions: the referee crew
39:53 Chiefs at Seahawks on Sunday night: the referee crew
45:19 Warren's best bet of the week: Rams vs Raiders

Rich Hribar, Ryan McCrystal, Joe Gibbs

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NFL Week 7 preview and matchups: Chiefs at Seahawks on Sunday Night Football, Packers at Lions, 49ers at Falcons and Bengals at Ravens. Kenneth Walker's revenge game, Josh Jacobs' return and the run game numbers that decide each one, plus two sneaky matchups: Broncos vs Cardinals and Panthers vs Buccaneers.

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Kenneth Walker, Patrick Mahomes, Mike Macdonald, Sam Darnold, Steve Spagnuolo, Zach Charbonnet, Jonathan Gannon, Jared Goff, Dan Campbell, Josh Jacobs, Jordan Love, Matt LaFleur, Bijan Robinson, Michael Penix Jr., Raheem Morris, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Mike Evans, Derrick Henry, Tyler Huntley, Cam Jurgens, Bo Nix, Sean Payton, Jaylen Waddle, Bryce Young, Todd Bowles.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

• Why Kenneth Walker against his former team is the most important matchup of Week 7, and why neither the Chiefs run game nor the Seattle run defense has really been tested
• The Seattle streak Walker could snap on Sunday night
• Where Seattle is vulnerable to running backs in the passing game
• Patrick Mahomes' only career game against Mike Macdonald
• Sam Darnold's turnover problem and how Steve Spagnuolo's defense can force negative plays
• What Zach Charbonnet's return can and can't fix in Seattle's backfield
• What Jonathan Gannon did to Dallas, and his history against Jared Goff
• How soft Detroit's schedule of defenses has been, and why Green Bay is its biggest test yet
• What Josh Jacobs' return does to a Packers offense that has leaned on Jordan Love
• Why Atlanta's first half against Chicago was a play-calling problem, and the outside zone battle with the 49ers
• How the Falcons should use Bijan Robinson in the passing game against San Francisco
• What the 49ers did on the ground in this matchup last year, and their passing game without Mike Evans
• Derrick Henry, a reshuffled Ravens interior line and the Bengals' light boxes
• Why Denver needs to push the ball downfield with Bo Nix against Arizona
• Bryce Young against Todd Bowles and the Tampa Bay blitz

CHAPTERS

00:00 Week 7: what you need to know
01:33 MATCHUP 1: Kenneth Walker vs the Seahawks run defense
08:36 Mahomes vs Mike Macdonald
09:27 How high is Seattle's floor?
11:54 Sam Darnold vs the Chiefs defense
15:47 Subscribe
16:18 MATCHUP 2: Jonathan Gannon's Packers defense vs the Lions
18:52 Jared Goff vs Jonathan Gannon
21:44 Josh Jacobs returns: the Packers offense vs Detroit
24:53 4 weeks for the price of 2: code SHOW40
26:06 MATCHUP 3: Bijan Robinson vs the 49ers run defense
30:56 Christian McCaffrey vs the Falcons run defense
35:16 Rich's Worksheets
35:59 MATCHUP 4: The Ravens run game vs the Bengals
40:10 SNEAKY: Bo Nix vs the Cardinals defense
43:37 SNEAKY: Bryce Young vs the Bucs blitz
45:45 Wrap

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NFL Week 6 takeaways from the numbers. Atlanta had the best run game in the week on a per carry basis and called 12 rushes, the fewest in the week, while Michael Penix got blitzed and sacked at the second worst rates of any quarterback. The Cowboys slipped, literally, and ran the worst early down run game of any first half in the week. 2026 is the second most penalized start to a season since 2000 and delay of game flags are at an all time high. The Steelers went from first and goal with 1:38 left to fourth and goal with 1:23 left and needed overtime to beat Tampa Bay. The Giants collapsed against the Saints, and Jalen Hurts' London numbers fell off a cliff after halftime on 36 hours without sleep, before the news that he is out for the season. Plus a best bet for Monday Night Football with Curtis.

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Players and coaches discussed: Michael Penix, Bijan Robinson, Kevin Stefanski, Tommy Rees, Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Mike Tomlin, Cam Skattebo, Najee Harris, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels.

What you'll learn

• Atlanta's first half drives: two three and outs, a turnover on downs, one touchdown, one punt, and a 21 to 7 halftime deficit
• The Falcons ran it 12 times, the fewest in the week, with a 16.7 percent explosive rush rate, the best in the week
• Michael Penix was blitzed on 52.6 percent of dropbacks and sacked on 13.2 percent, both second worst, with a 31.6 percent bust rate, the worst
• Bijan Robinson averaged 12.8 yards on 4 first half carries and the Falcons kept throwing
• The Cowboys' first half early down runs averaged -0.37 EPA, the worst first half mark in the week, and Dallas threw 78 percent of its passes at 10 air yards or less, the most in the week
• 97 delay of game penalties through six weeks, the previous high was 75, and offenses have committed 690 flags, the most through Week 6 since at least 2000
• Offensive holding is up 58 percent since 2022
• The Steelers threw on first and goal and third and goal with 1:38 left and two Tampa Bay timeouts on the board
• Pittsburgh's first half was the worst in the week by EPA per play and EPA per dropback
• The Giants' catastrophe against New Orleans
• Jalen Hurts is out for the season, and what 36 hours without sleep did to his London numbers: 69 to 42 percent completions, +0.38 to -0.32 EPA per attempt, 7.6 to 4.1 yards per attempt
• Monday Night Football: Commanders at 49ers, with Curtis on the matchup he likes

Chapters

00:00 Intro
00:45 Atlanta's failure to launch
08:43 Cowboys issues
12:58 Penalties are out of control
18:16 Subscribe
18:42 Steelers end of game clock management
23:44 Giant catastrophe
27:57 Jalen Hurts, 36 hours with no sleep
32:21 Free newsletter
32:53 Monday Night Football: Commanders at 49ers, with Curtis
44:26 Wrap-up and a look at Week 7

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Guests: Curtis Hirsch

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