In this podcast, we recap a conversation we didn’t record where Shea and I talked about epistemology and decision theory, and I decided to flag it more when I say “but what would that even mean”

I also made a case for subjective probability as a useful concept, and we talked a little about politics at the end.

At one point I referenced this LW post that mentions confidence and credence.

AI generated chapter time stamps:

00:00 Introduction and Motivation for Discussion

00:39 Exploring Timeless Decision Theory

02:00 Objections to Traditional Decision Theories

04:33 Functional Decision Theory and Its Implications

06:01 The Role of Other People's Decisions

08:17 Perspectives on Newcomb's Problem

10:01 Voting and Decision-Making Dynamics

12:40 The Value of Civic Participation

14:03 Philosophical Perspectives on Decision Theory

18:10 Platonism and Mathematical Realism

23:29 The Nature of Abstractions and Probabilities

25:43 Critical Rationalism and Probability Discussions

33:19 Understanding Subjective Probability

36:57 The Role of Betting in Probability Communication

39:20 Precision in Probability Estimates

41:10 The Nature of Likelihood and Causality

44:56 The Complexity of Probability in Epistemology

51:32 Subjective vs. Objective Probability

58:48 Understanding Credence and Confidence

01:13:06 Navigating Political Uncertainty

01:19:41 Protests and Free Speech in Context

01:24:17 Navigating Immigration and American Values

01:31:06 The Left's Political Landscape and Future Directions

01:36:12 Housing and Healthcare: Bipartisan Solutions?

01:40:28 Education Reform and the Role of Competition

01:52:03 The Need for New Leadership in Politics

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