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Shrinking Doubling Times
Shrinking-Doubling-Times-Best-Of.mp3
Shrinking-Doubling-Times-Best-Of.mp4
Shrinking-Doubling-Times.mp3
Shrinking-Doubling-Times.mp4
Shrinking-Doubling-Times-intro.mp3
[Intro]
What are we thinking
(The time is shrinking)
And the damage (doubling)
Troubling?
[Verse 1]
Dramatic
(Contraction)
Climactic
(Climatic)
[Chorus]
What are we thinking
(The time is shrinking)
And the damage (doubling)
Troubling?
[Bridge]
(And then some sum)
(Doubling) Intensity
(Doubling) Frequency
[Verse 2]
Dramatic
(Anthropogenic)
Climactic
(Climatic)
[Chorus]
What are we thinking
(The time is shrinking)
And the damage (doubling)
Troubling?
[Bridge]
(And then some sum)
(Doubling) Intensity
(Doubling) Frequency
(Doubling) Troubling
[Chorus]
What are we thinking
(The time is shrinking)
And the damage (doubling)
Troubling?
[Outro]
(And then some sum)
How come (so dumb?)
(Doubling) Intensity
(Doubling) Frequency
(Doubling) Troubling
Never surrendering
(Our vanity)
Insanity
(Massive mass consumption)
Pass to past compensation
ABOUT THE SONG AND THE SCIENCE
Anthropogenic (an-thr-po-gen-ic), is the formal scientific synonym for “human-induced”.
In the 1990s, we developed what became known as The Non-Linear Acceleration Hypothesis–the proposition that climate change is not progressing linearly but is accelerating exponentially. Working together, with Sidd’s background as a Doctor of Physics from Ohio State and my own experimental and observational analyses, we produced the foundational evidence for this theory. By the early 2000s, our work had evolved into a recognized climate framework, validated repeatedly through independent replication and supported by an expanding body of empirical data. Over the decades, this body of confirmation has solidified into the scientific consensus we see today.
Shrinking Doubling Times and Escalating Impacts
One of the most compelling indicators of nonlinear acceleration is the dramatic contraction of the doubling time of climate impacts–the interval in which damage effectively doubles due to interacting feedback processes. In the mid-20th century, the doubling time was on the order of 100 years. By the early 2000s, it had fallen to 10 years, and recent analyses show that it has now plunged to approximately 2 years.
This means that the impacts of climate change today are twice as severe as they were two years ago. If the doubling time remains constant, they will be four times worse in two years, eight times worse in four years, and potentially sixty-four times worse within a decade. These estimates are conservative; the doubling period continues to shorten as feedbacks intensify. With no meaningful global mitigation underway, the trajectory is unmistakable and vastly more catastrophic than previously projected.
Accelerated Forcing Growth
Their analysis centers on a chart showing the five-year running mean of the annual increase in greenhouse gas forcing. Over the past 15 years, they find that the rate of increase has surged to ~0.5 W/m2 per decade–far higher than IPCC projections. This acceleration is not reflected in IPCC scenarios and is fundamentally incompatible with its claims of remaining “pathways” to 1.5°C or 2°C.
Implications for Climate Scenarios
The Domino Effect: Cascading Tipping Points
Building on nonlinear thermodynamics and chaos theory, we now know that climate tipping points are not isolated events–they interact. As major systems destabilize, they trigger secondary failures, creating a cascade of compounded impacts.
Our recent synthesis of 2024-2025 data shows:
* Our probabilistic, ensemble-based climate model — which incorporates complex socio-economic and ecological feedback loops within a dynamic, nonlinear system — projects that global temperatures are becoming unsustainable this century. This far exceeds earlier estimates of a 4°C rise over the next thousand years, highlighting a dramatic acceleration in global warming. We are now entering a phase of compound, cascading collapse, where climate, ecological, and societal systems destabilize through interlinked, self-reinforcing feedback loops.
What Can I Do?
The single most important action you can take to help address the climate crisis is simple: stop burning fossil fuels. There are numerous actions you can take to contribute to saving the planet. Each person bears the responsibility to minimize pollution, discontinue the use of fossil fuels, reduce consumption, and foster a culture of love and care. The Butterfly Effect illustrates that a small change in one area can lead to significant alterations in conditions anywhere on the globe. Hence, the frequently heard statement that a fluttering butterfly in China can cause a hurricane in the Atlantic. Be a butterfly and affect the world.
Tipping points and feedback loops drive the acceleration of climate change. When one tipping point is breached and triggers others, the cascading collapse is known as the Domino Effect.
The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment
From the album “Nonlinear“
View all episodes
By Shrinking-Doubling-Times-Best-Of.mp3
Shrinking-Doubling-Times-Best-Of.mp4
Shrinking-Doubling-Times.mp3
Shrinking-Doubling-Times.mp4
Shrinking-Doubling-Times-intro.mp3
[Intro]
What are we thinking
(The time is shrinking)
And the damage (doubling)
Troubling?
[Verse 1]
Dramatic
(Contraction)
Climactic
(Climatic)
[Chorus]
What are we thinking
(The time is shrinking)
And the damage (doubling)
Troubling?
[Bridge]
(And then some sum)
(Doubling) Intensity
(Doubling) Frequency
[Verse 2]
Dramatic
(Anthropogenic)
Climactic
(Climatic)
[Chorus]
What are we thinking
(The time is shrinking)
And the damage (doubling)
Troubling?
[Bridge]
(And then some sum)
(Doubling) Intensity
(Doubling) Frequency
(Doubling) Troubling
[Chorus]
What are we thinking
(The time is shrinking)
And the damage (doubling)
Troubling?
[Outro]
(And then some sum)
How come (so dumb?)
(Doubling) Intensity
(Doubling) Frequency
(Doubling) Troubling
Never surrendering
(Our vanity)
Insanity
(Massive mass consumption)
Pass to past compensation
ABOUT THE SONG AND THE SCIENCE
Anthropogenic (an-thr-po-gen-ic), is the formal scientific synonym for “human-induced”.
In the 1990s, we developed what became known as The Non-Linear Acceleration Hypothesis–the proposition that climate change is not progressing linearly but is accelerating exponentially. Working together, with Sidd’s background as a Doctor of Physics from Ohio State and my own experimental and observational analyses, we produced the foundational evidence for this theory. By the early 2000s, our work had evolved into a recognized climate framework, validated repeatedly through independent replication and supported by an expanding body of empirical data. Over the decades, this body of confirmation has solidified into the scientific consensus we see today.
Shrinking Doubling Times and Escalating Impacts
One of the most compelling indicators of nonlinear acceleration is the dramatic contraction of the doubling time of climate impacts–the interval in which damage effectively doubles due to interacting feedback processes. In the mid-20th century, the doubling time was on the order of 100 years. By the early 2000s, it had fallen to 10 years, and recent analyses show that it has now plunged to approximately 2 years.
This means that the impacts of climate change today are twice as severe as they were two years ago. If the doubling time remains constant, they will be four times worse in two years, eight times worse in four years, and potentially sixty-four times worse within a decade. These estimates are conservative; the doubling period continues to shorten as feedbacks intensify. With no meaningful global mitigation underway, the trajectory is unmistakable and vastly more catastrophic than previously projected.
Accelerated Forcing Growth
Their analysis centers on a chart showing the five-year running mean of the annual increase in greenhouse gas forcing. Over the past 15 years, they find that the rate of increase has surged to ~0.5 W/m2 per decade–far higher than IPCC projections. This acceleration is not reflected in IPCC scenarios and is fundamentally incompatible with its claims of remaining “pathways” to 1.5°C or 2°C.
Implications for Climate Scenarios
The Domino Effect: Cascading Tipping Points
Building on nonlinear thermodynamics and chaos theory, we now know that climate tipping points are not isolated events–they interact. As major systems destabilize, they trigger secondary failures, creating a cascade of compounded impacts.
Our recent synthesis of 2024-2025 data shows:
* Our probabilistic, ensemble-based climate model — which incorporates complex socio-economic and ecological feedback loops within a dynamic, nonlinear system — projects that global temperatures are becoming unsustainable this century. This far exceeds earlier estimates of a 4°C rise over the next thousand years, highlighting a dramatic acceleration in global warming. We are now entering a phase of compound, cascading collapse, where climate, ecological, and societal systems destabilize through interlinked, self-reinforcing feedback loops.
What Can I Do?
The single most important action you can take to help address the climate crisis is simple: stop burning fossil fuels. There are numerous actions you can take to contribute to saving the planet. Each person bears the responsibility to minimize pollution, discontinue the use of fossil fuels, reduce consumption, and foster a culture of love and care. The Butterfly Effect illustrates that a small change in one area can lead to significant alterations in conditions anywhere on the globe. Hence, the frequently heard statement that a fluttering butterfly in China can cause a hurricane in the Atlantic. Be a butterfly and affect the world.
Tipping points and feedback loops drive the acceleration of climate change. When one tipping point is breached and triggers others, the cascading collapse is known as the Domino Effect.
The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment
From the album “Nonlinear“