Today’s conversation with Katy Kaminiski is all about change. We discuss what has been the driver of the changing economic environment that we experience and how changing interest rates affect trend followers, why Katy believes we need a repricing in long term yields and how the yield curve is a key factor in trend followers profitability. Katy also explains her outlook for the markets, how you build portfolios in the current economic environment and much more. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- 
 Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Katy on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 02:22 - What has been on Katy's radar recently? 04:24 - A precursor for the conversation 05:21 - Industry performance update 07:19 - Katy's trend following perspective 11:40 - Discussing Katy's paper, "The Short of Shorting Bonds" 16:06 - The results of the paper 21:12 - Why the shape of the yield curve makes a difference 24:52 - Why trend followers make more money when the yield curve is inverted 26:59 - Does higher rates always mean you have to be short bonds? 33:15 - Do you earn interest on the money that are put up for margin? 35:12 - Where are we in the markets right now? 37:26 - The forecasting behaviour is difficult to change 42:52 - Different people, different perspectives 46:39 - Doing what happens next 48:12 - Best practices when analyzing the data 54:54...

SI269: Is the Big Bond Short Over? ft. Katy Kaminski

Step into the fascinating realm of finance and investing with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and an amazing line-up of co-hosts as your guide. Each week, we engage in captivating conversations with renowned investors, esteemed economists, skilled traders, and visionary thought leaders. Discover the wisdom derived from their journeys, embracing their triumphs and learning from their setbacks. At TTU, we strive to ignite your independent thinking, encouraging you to chart your own path to financial success. Tune in to stay informed and inspired on the ever-evolving landscape of finance and investing. Stay up-to-date with our latest episodes and blogposts at https://toptradersunplugged.com

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In this episode, Tad Fallows, Founder of Long Angle, a community for high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth investors,  joins Alan Dunne for a fascinating chat on how they approach asset allocation and find niche investment opportunities. Tad speaks about the typical risk appetite of his co-investors, highlighting how age and generation of wealth shape the risk profile of members. He talks about investments in private equity, alternative assets, and their investment strategies in the shifting macro landscape. Tad highlights why hedge funds may seem less appealing to them but why he has a lot of interest in trend following. He also speaks to some of the more esoteric investments his group makes such as whiskey aging, and talks about their crypto exposure. Finally, he highlights the importance of intuition and high conviction when making investment deals.  ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- 
 Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Tad on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps:  02:34 - Introduction to Tad Fallows 12:38 - The risk appetite of Long Angle investors 15:45 - What defines the Long Angle community? 19:52 - Why not the traditional route? 23:14 - How are they allocated? 27:20 - How they incorporate private equity in their portfolio 35:02 - How much of their returns are resilient to changes in global macro? 40:18 - Micro or macro? 45:08 - Taking advantage of inefficiencies in markets 47:04 - Why are they staying...

ALO23: Behind the Scenes of a High Net Worth Investor ft. Tad Fallows

Hari Krishnan returns to the show for a deep dive into commodities. He helps us understand why investing in commodities is not as easy as other markets and why he believes that we are entering a commodity super cycle. We also discuss how to overcome the challenges of holding and storing commodities and why cheap commodities are not always so cheap once you start rolling your futures position. We talk about where his new “virtual storage” concept can add value to a trend following system and much more. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- 
 Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Hari on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps:  01:07 - What is catching our attention recently? 06:53 - A recap of April 10:14 - Hari's thoughts on trend following 14:30 - The interesting commodities 18:10 - A commodity super cycle inbound? 20:36 - BUT...Commodity Bulls used the same arguments in 2022 22:51 - How commodity storage functions 29:57 - Balancing divergence and convergence 32:26 - How virtual commodity storage works 35:55 - The role of trend following in a regime-based participation 42:47 - How consistent is the virtual warehousing approach? 47:06 - Manual or systematized? 48:59 - Overcoming the challenges of commodities 53:44 - What markets can the method be applied to? 54:16 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're...

SI294: Lowering the Cost of being Long Commodities ft. Hari Krishnan

In this episode, Cem and I welcome Christian Mueller Glissman back on the show, and together, we tackle the intricacies of capital allocation in 2024, particularly amid the pivotal elections we expect to see. We discuss the pros and cons of starting with a 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy. Cem and Christian highlight Europe's resilience to inflation and its potential energy cost advantages, making it an attractive investment destination. We also analyze how election cycles, especially during populist periods like now, influence the economy and markets. Christian shares insights on using structured products to manage volatility, and both he and Cem strongly advocate for strategies like trend following in current market conditions. Finally, we discuss what an optimal portfolio allocation should include in 2024. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- 
 Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Christian on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps:  02:39 - Christian's current big picture macro framework 07:22 - The role of volatility in inflation 12:20 - Should the 60/40 portfolio always be your starting point? 21:02 - What are the risks of the 60/40 portfolio not being the starting point? 27:37 - A scary situation in Europe? 32:16 - How election periods affect the economy 40:22 - A wall of worry 43:30 - Christian's thoughts on using structured products to reduce volatility 48:03 - A push-pull...

GM60: Preparing Your Portfolio for the Second Half of 2024 ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann

Today, I'm joined by Cem Karsan to discuss how speculations in markets affect the economy and Cem presents his view on the current state of global macro as well as a forecast for the rest of the year. How do conflicts around the world affect the global economy and why does Cem believe that we are going into a “dangerous period”? Why does Cem believe options are key to making profit from different scenarios and outcomes and what are the possibilities of seeing US rate cuts later this year? We also discuss how the U.S election will impact the economy and where Cem believes the equity markets will finish the year and much more. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- 
 Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps:  00:47 - What has been on our radar recently? 02:22 - What is the talk of the town in the vol space at the moment? 03:11 - Industry performance update 05:27 - Q1: What is Cem's view on the impact of call speculation on the VIX? 12:17 - Cem's perspective on the current state of global macro 18:09 - Important market development recently? 31:40 - Making profit from different scenarios 35:48 - The structure of markets 42:23 - Are rate cuts coming? 48:10 - How the U.S election will change the economic narrative 53:32 - The pros and cons of a win for Trump 56:49 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1.

SI293: Market Outlook for the Rest of 2024 & EOY S&P500 level ft. Cem Karsan

Join us for an eye-opening discussion on global power dynamics with  geopolitics expert Marko Papic, alongside Cem Karsan and myself, where  we dive deep into the ongoing tug-of-war between the West, Russia, China, and the rest of the world. Marko sheds light on the United States' push for a clear bipolar world order. He shares his insights on whether the world as we know it is coming to an end and why a Trump presidency may pave the way for trade deals and foreign policy agreements, particularly with rivals like China. Looking ahead, Marko discusses Europe's industrial sector and explains why investing in European industrials could be a smart move. Finally, we explore the complexities of the relationship between Russia and China. Are they as close as we think? And is China's dream of becoming the next superpower within reach? We also delve into the possibility of China's move to invade Taiwan and what it would entail. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- 
 Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Marko on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps:  02:15 - Marko's current macro framework 07:20 - Moving towards a multi-polar world 14:43 - How is now different from back in the days? 23:36 - Trump landing the deglobalization plane 31:48 - The election - a macro black hole 36:47 - The new world from a non-US perspective 44:18 - What happens with Ukraine? 49:50 - An increased risk for bigger global conflicts? 56:15 - Creating strong...

SI269: Is the Big Bond Short Over? ft. Katy Kaminski

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