Episode Summary

In the latest episode of Signals, host Nick Mazing sits down with Peter Atwater, Adjust Professor of Economics at William and Mary, and the author of "The Confidence Map." Peter dives deep into the essence of confidence, distinguishing its two core elements: predictability and preparedness. He emphasizes that while many perceive these elements as intertwined, they stand separate, and are foundational to understanding confidence.

The conversation takes a turn towards the main theme of the book, the four quadrants, which maps situations based on levels of certainty and control. The two key quadrants discussed are the Stress Zone quadrant, characterized by low certainty and control, and the Launchpad quadrant, marked by high control amidst uncertainty. These quadrants shed light on human behaviors, from feelings of powerlessness in the Stress Quadrant to the entrepreneurial spirit in the Launchpad.

Atwater concludes by highlighting the power of narratives. He asserts that our perception of the future, especially when navigating uncertainty, is a direct reflection of our present confidence levels.

Guest-at-a-Glance

💡 Name: Peter Atwater

💡What he does: Book Author

💡Company: The Confidence Map

💡Where to find Peter: LinkedIn

Key Insights

The True Elements of Confidence

Peter Atwater breaks down the often-misunderstood concept of confidence into two distinct elements: predictability and preparedness. While many conflate the two, Atwater emphasizes their individual importance. Predictability revolves around our ability to foresee what's coming, giving us a sense of security about the future. Preparedness, on the other hand, is about being adequately trained and ready for upcoming challenges. Together, these elements form the bedrock of genuine confidence, guiding our actions and decisions in various situations.

Navigating the Quadrants of Certainty and Control

Nick Mazing introduces a quadrant framework that categorizes situations based on their levels of certainty and control. Two pivotal quadrants discussed are the Stress Quadrant, where individuals feel powerless due to low certainty and control, and the Launchpad Quadrant, characterized by high control in the face of uncertainty. These quadrants not only illuminate human behaviors but also provide insights into decision-making processes, especially in challenging times.

The Power of Narratives in Shaping Perception

Peter underscores the significant role stories play in shaping our perceptions, especially when navigating uncertain terrains. He notes that our imagination of the future is often a mirror reflection of our current confidence level. This insight is crucial for leaders and decision-makers, as understanding the narratives can help in steering teams and organizations towards desired outcomes. By recognizing and harnessing the power of stories, one can effectively influence perceptions and drive positive change.

Episode Summary

In the latest episode of Signals, Nick Mazing sits down with Chris Semenuk, Portfolio Manager at Tema Global Royalties ETF (ROYA). Together, they unravel the multifaceted world of royalties. While many associate royalties primarily with music, they extend far beyond, touching areas like pharmaceuticals and natural resources such as oil and gold.

Chris delves into the unique appeal of royalty companies. Shareholders not only gain access to distinct assets, be it a high-potential oil property or a promising oncology drug, but also benefit from the expertise of seasoned management teams. These companies offer a blend of unique asset exposure and experienced leadership.

Rounding off the discussion, Chris introduces the Tema Global Royalties ETF. This fund aims to provide investors with diversified exposure to the best royalties across various sectors. It's a deep dive into the potential and intricacies of an often-overlooked asset class.

Guest-at-a-Glance

💡 Name: Chris Semenuk 

💡What they do: Portfolio Manager

💡Company: Tema Global Royalties ETF

💡Noteworthy: Worked as a global fund manager for 20 years at a large US pension fund, specializing in active stock picking.

💡 Where to find them: LinkedIn

Key Insights

The Broad Spectrum of Royalties

Royalties aren't just about music. In the episode, Chris Semenuk and Nick Mazing explore the landscape of royalties, highlighting that they encompass a wide range of intellectual properties. From the familiar music royalties that artists like Taylor Swift earn from streaming platforms to more complex areas like pharmaceuticals and natural resources such as oil and gold. These royalties can be paid to individuals, companies, or even governments. The discussion underscores the multifaceted nature of royalties and their significance in various industries.

Unique Appeal of Royalty Companies

Chris Semenuk delves deep into what makes royalty companies stand out. Shareholders in these companies gain a unique exposure to assets, whether it's a promising drug in the oncology sector or a high-potential oil property in the Permian Basin. Beyond the assets, there's the added advantage of experienced management. Many executives in royalty companies come from industries related to the assets they oversee, bringing a wealth of expertise. This combination of unique assets and seasoned leadership makes royalty companies an attractive proposition for investors.

Tema Global Royalties ETF: Diversified Royalty Exposure

Chris introduces the Tema Global Royalties ETF, aiming to offer investors a diversified exposure to top-tier royalties across various sectors. The fund's objective is to give shareholders access to the best royalties available, spanning different asset categories. Currently, 70% of the fund is invested in commodities like precious metals, base metals, and oil and gas. However, the ETF also ventures into non-commodity sectors, such as the pharmaceutical industry. This diversified approach ensures that investors get a broad spectrum of the royalty landscape, maximizing potential returns while spreading risk.

Episode Summary

In the latest episode of Signals, host Nick Mazing reconnects with Michael Maloof from Earnest Analytics, and a former Bulge Bracket bank TMT analyst. 

Michael first discussed the use of alternative data by investment funds in general, with a specific focus on credit card transaction data. The guest covers the “mosaic” approach to investing: looking at many disparate data sets to arrive at a combined picture. 

The next part of the conversation focuses on AI applications in alternative data. Alt data is a natural candidate for artificial intelligence applications given the large volume of data points. More specifically, Michael discusses the rollout of Earnest AI, the new predictive application of AI on top of Earnest data. As an example of its accuracy, the guest cited the model accurately predicting within 0.01% (one hundredth of one percent) the decline in a key KPI for a retailer while the Wall Street consensus was an increase in that KPI. The model has also enabled earlier prediction for a wider range of companies, and Michael sees the industry fully embracing the predictive power of AI.

Guest-at-a-Glance

💡 Name: Michael Maloof

💡 What he does: Director of Marketing

💡 Company: Earnest Analytics and Earnest AI release

💡 Noteworthy: Michael Maloof: Former equity analyst at Goldman Sachs, now head of marketing at Earnest Analytics.

💡 Where to find Michael: LinkedIn 

Key Insights

Earnest AI's Remarkable Accuracy in Predictive Analysis

Michael Maloof highlights the groundbreaking accuracy of Earnest AI since its August 2023 launch. This generative tool can predict reported metrics for hundreds of U.S. companies, significantly reducing the time analysts spend on predictive modeling. One standout example Michael cites is Earnest AI's prediction of a large national wholesaler's sales growth. While Wall Street anticipated positive growth, Earnest AI accurately foresaw a negative year-on-year sales print, coming astonishingly close to the actual result. This level of precision underscores the tool's potential to revolutionize data analysis in the financial sector.

The Evolution of Alternative Data with AI

Alternative data's landscape is undergoing a significant transformation with the integration of AI. Michael dives into how Earnest Analytics has been utilizing machine learning to ensure data quality. With the introduction of Earnest AI, the company has taken a leap forward, using generative artificial intelligence to derive signals from vast data sets. This AI-driven approach not only streamlines the data analysis process but also enhances the accuracy and speed of predictions, empowering investors to make more informed decisions.

The Future of AI in Alternative Data

Michael provides a glimpse into the future of AI in the realm of alternative data. While Earnest AI started with a single feature of reported metric predictions, its roadmap is expansive. Soon, it will power predictive metrics across various data sets, creating composite earnings and underpinning metrics for non-public entities. As data platforms grapple with billions of rows of data daily, AI emerges as the solution to derive meaningful signals from this vast information, marking a new chapter for companies like Earnest Analytics.

Episode Summary

In this episode of Signals, Nick Mazing sits down with Jess Raggio, VP of Revenue Marketing at AlphaSense. They dive deep into what Revenue Marketing (aka Demand Generation) does, as well as the modern marketing technology stack that enables sophisticated programs at scale. 

First Jess discusses what a modern B2B SaaS revenue marketing team does, going over touchpoints, and flows across the buyer’s journey. Then she discusses the variety of platforms and tools that are involved in the execution of marketing programs, starting with CRM (Customer Relationship Management) platforms like Marketo and HubSpot. She then goes over the basics of email marketing and email marketing campaigns. Jess also covers a number of considerations regarding webinars and webinar technologies. In the next part, Jess covers the importance of the website: from scalable content management, to instant personalization based on visitor industry and persona. The final program that Jess discusses with us is search and display ads. 

The episode provides a great overview of the building blocks of modern B2B SaaS marketing programs, and the technology stack behind them.

Guest-at-a-Glance

💡 Name: Jess Raggio 

💡What they do: VP of Revenue Marketing

💡Company: AlphaSense

💡Noteworthy: Experienced in B2B marketing for nearly 20 years, witnessed and contributed to numerous marketing transformations.

💡 Where to find them: LinkedIn

Key Insights

The Role of Modern Marketing Technology

Jess Raggio delves into the significance of marketing technology (MarTech) in today's B2B landscape. With buyers present across various channels, it's crucial for marketers to ensure a seamless brand experience. This includes interactions with sales reps and marketing engagements. The challenge lies in scaling these efforts, especially with limited resources. Tools like HubSpot and Marketo, foundational CRM tools, store customer data and automate processes. They also harness AI to offer personalized experiences across channels, understanding buyer intent and guiding them through their journey.

The Power of Websites in B2B Marketing

Websites play a pivotal role in the B2B marketing engine. Most buying activities, from research to product comparisons, occur digitally. A website is the primary interface between prospects, customers, partners, and investors. Modern websites need to be scalable, built on easy-to-manage content management systems like WordPress. This allows for regular updates without heavy reliance on developers. Personalization is key, with tools like Mutiny offering tailored experiences based on visitor traits.

The Impact of Paid Media in B2B Marketing

Paid media, encompassing paid search and display ads, is a potent channel for marketers. It targets buyers at various journey stages with ads tailored to their current needs. Paid search ads, for instance, appear based on keyword searches on platforms like Google. They target high-intent leads, even those unfamiliar with the brand. Display ads, on the other hand, build awareness among potential future customers. Integrating these with CRM systems offers insights into lead quality and enhances campaign impact.

Episode Summary

In this episode of Signals, Nick Mazing sits down with Camila Sarmiento, a ESG analyst from HSBC, based in New York. 

First, Camila covers the surge in renewable energy investments in the United States, driven, in part, by the Inflation Reduction Act. The US is still playing catch-up in the area. 

Then Camila discussed the current state of the US grid: from the lack of a single national grid, to the complex relationship between utilities, local governments, and federal regulators. A major concern is the age of the grid, with 70% being more than 30 years old. 

Finally, the guest goes over the new challenges and potential solutions that the grid faces. Historically, the grid was fed by few, relatively large energy sources while now, with increasing renewables, the size of the sources is smaller but there are a lot more of them. Further, balancing demand with production is harder due to the intermittency of renewable energy. 

Guest-at-a-Glance

💡 Name: Camila Sarmiento

💡 What she does: ESG Analyst

💡 Company: HSBC

💡 Noteworthy: Camila Sarmiento is an ESG analyst at HSBC, based in New York. With years of experience in the ESG space, she has extensively covered themes across environmental, social, and governance, particularly focusing on the United States. Her insights are especially relevant given the US's strong push towards a climate agenda, including rejoining the Paris Agreement and making historic investments in climate change and clean technology.

💡 Where to find Camila: LinkedIn / Apple Podcasts / Spotify Podcasts / Global Research 

Key Insights

The Need for a Modernized Grid

As billions of dollars flow into renewable energy projects, there's a pressing need for a modern grid system. This grid should not only connect these projects but also ensure the delivery of low-carbon and reliable electricity around the clock. The transition to greener solutions has led to a surge in demand for dependable electricity, emphasizing the importance of a robust grid system.

The Impact of the Inflation Reduction Act on Renewables

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is a significant piece of US industrial policy that has far-reaching effects, including on renewables. The act invests an unprecedented $370 billion for energy security and climate change. It has extended and expanded renewable tax credits, thereby driving growth in the renewable energy sector. This has led to an increase in investments in renewables and a surge in renewable projects wanting to connect to the grid.

Challenges and Solutions for the US Grid

The US grid faces both physical and administrative challenges. One major solution is increasing transmission capacity, allowing for efficient electricity delivery and connecting regions for electricity sharing. The idea is to have a more interconnected "macro grid" rather than the current fragmented system. This would help address peak electricity demands and ensure a steady supply even during supply interruptions.

Episode Summary

In this episode of Signals, Nick Mazing welcomes Sara Stahl, Director of Research, Healthcare, at  AlphaSense Expert Insights. They explore the new generation of weight loss drugs, a hot topic that's making waves everywhere.

The conversation focuses on the efficacy of these drugs and the massive market potential they hold. Sara highlights the rising obesity epidemic and the potential these drugs have in combating it. She discusses the mechanism of action of the GLP-1 agonists, as well as the pipeline for several companies. Sara also covers the negative side effects of these drugs, the strong demand by consumers, as well as the effects on obesity-related comorbidities. 

The discussion also touches on the potential impacts of these drugs on related industries. From bariatric surgery to diabetes devices, the ripple effects are far-reaching. The episode wraps up with a look at the challenges and opportunities these drugs present for insurance coverage. 

Guest-at-a-Glance

💡 Name: Sara Stahl

💡What she does: Director of Research, Healthcare at AlphaSense Expert Insights

💡Company: AlphaSense Expert Insights

💡 Where to find Sara: LinkedIn

Key Insights

The Rising Demand for Weight Loss Drugs

Sara and Nick talk about the growing interest in weight loss drugs, especially among those outside the healthcare sector. These drugs, such as Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro, are gaining popularity due to their efficacy in combating obesity. The demand is so high that people are going to great lengths to get them, including traveling to other countries. This surge in demand is also giving rise to telehealth companies selling these drugs directly to consumers.

The Impact of Weight Loss Drugs on Related Industries

Sara elaborates on the potential impacts of these weight-loss drugs on related industries. For instance, bariatric surgery could become obsolete if these drugs prove to be highly effective. Other areas potentially affected include cardiovascular stents, statins, insulin pumps, and continuous glucose monitors for diabetes patients. However, she also highlights that it's too early to write off these players in the healthcare sector.

The Challenge of Insurance Coverage for Weight Loss Drugs

Our interlocutors touch on the challenges of insurance coverage for these weight-loss drugs. Despite their potential to control severe comorbid conditions and lower overall healthcare spending, the short-term cost to cover these drugs is high. Sara suggests that linking obesity to other comorbid conditions in studies could be a strategy to facilitate insurance coverage.

Episode Summary

In this episode of Signals, Nick Mazing sits down with Xavier Smith, Director of Research, Energy/Industrials at AlphaSense Expert Insights. They dive into the evolving industrial sector, focusing on key trends such as the adoption of electric vehicles and the ongoing energy transition. Smith's insights shed light on how interest rates are shaping the construction cycle, a critical aspect of the industrial landscape.

Xavier first discusses the more dynamic “tech adjacent” sectors of industrials: EVs and energy transition, as well as the IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) effect on both. On the EV side, the episode covers costs, charging standards, range improvements, affordability, adoption curves, and more. On the energy transition side, Xavier discusses industrial battery storage, costs vs fossil fuels, geographic aspects, as well as newer technologies like offshore solar. 

In more traditional industrials, we discuss construction and building materials, and, more specifically, the bifurcation between home building holding up despite the increase in interest rates versus the difficult situation in office CRE. 


Guest-at-a-Glance

💡 Name: Xavier Smith

💡What he does: Director of Research, Energy/Industrials

💡Company: AlphaSense Expert Insights

💡Noteworthy: Xavier is the Director of Research for Industrials and Energy at AlphaSense, former hedge fund and long-only firm professional.

💡 Where to find Xavier: LinkedIn

Key Insights

Historic Shift: Clean Energy Investments Outpace Fossil Fuels

For the first time, investments in clean energy are set to outpace those in fossil fuels. A whopping $1.7 trillion is projected to be invested in renewable energy in 2023, almost double the CapEx number for fossil fuels. This shift is a clear indicator of the growing interest and confidence in renewable energy sources.

Energy Storage: The Game Changer in Energy Transition

Energy storage, particularly industrialized batteries, is revolutionizing the energy transition. These batteries address the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources like wind and solar, allowing power usage to be shifted according to need. The industry has tripled over the last three years, from a $50 billion business in 2020 to $160 billion today. This growth is expected to continue, making energy storage a key player in the energy transition.

Interest Rates and Their Bifurcated Impact on Construction

Interest rates are significantly influencing the construction cycle, creating a bifurcated market. Despite high interest rates, home builders are performing well due to the difficulty in purchasing existing houses. However, the commercial real estate sector, particularly office space, is experiencing challenges.

Episode Summary

In this episode of Signals, Nick Mazing hosts James Pomeroy, Global Economist at HSBC. They delve into the complex world of demographics and its impact on the global economy. James shares his expertise in collating country forecasts and creating a global view, while also touching on his thematic views on the digital economy, urbanization, and demographics.

First, James discusses the basic demographic data types, like Total Fertility Rate (TFR), working age population, and dependency ratios. 

James recently published a report on the potential shock to demographic projections caused by climate change and migration. This report sheds light on the intricate relationship between these global phenomena and their potential to reshape our world.

James then covers the complex dynamics of intra- and inter-country migrations, and the implications for population growth around the world. While demographic and migration projects over decades are very difficult, it is possible that small and currently “cold climate” economies, such as Canada and Scandinavia, experience population growth substantially above current projections, while Africa, currently viewed as the largest source of global population growth, experiences a decline in population over decades-long timeframe. 

Finally, we discuss the major social challenges that come along with increased migration, from housing to integration into the workforce. 

Guest-at-a-Glance

💡 Name: James Pomeroy 

💡What they do: Global Economist

💡Company: HSBC

💡Noteworthy: Expert in global economics with a focus on demographics and climate change.

💡 Where to find them: HSBC The Macro Brief podcast: Apple Spotify

Key Insights

The Role of a Global Economist

James Pomeroy, a Global Economist at HSBC, explains his multifaceted role. His responsibilities include collating individual country forecasts from HSBC's team of economists around the world to form a coherent global view. Additionally, he develops overarching thematic views on long-term trends driving global economies. These themes span a variety of topics, including the digital economy, urbanization trends, and demographics. Pomeroy emphasizes the importance of considering these themes, particularly demographics, in today's world.

Climate Change and Migration

Pomeroy discusses his recent report titled "Climate Change and Migration: A Potential Shock to Demographic Projections". He highlights the significant challenges posed by demographics and explores the less obvious effects of climate change and migration on these trends. He emphasizes the need for proper housing and integration of displaced people into the workforce and society, as climate change is likely to cause greater global migration flows.

The Impact of Climate Change on Migration

Pomeroy brings up the concept of climate refugees and climate migrants - people forced to migrate due to climate change. He explains that over time, climate change is likely to make more economies inhospitable, causing outflows of people. He also notes that certain economies, such as the UK, Australia, and Canada, which have historically taken in a lot of inward migrants, could be significantly affected by these migration flows.

Episode Summary

In this episode of Signals, Nick Mazing hosts Erik Ellingson, Partner at CMT Digital. They delve into the world of blockchain, discussing its potential and the opportunities it presents.

Ellingson sheds light on CMT Digital's focus on early-stage investments in the blockchain ecosystem. He emphasizes the importance of core infrastructure opportunities, including blockchain tools and infrastructure, payment systems, and global on-off ramps. These elements, he believes, are crucial for making blockchain technology accessible to the masses.

In addition, Ellingson highlights the potential of content generation within the blockchain ecosystem. He points to the builder economy, digital fashion, gaming, sports, and loyalty programs as key areas of focus. He also discusses the potential for AI and blockchain to come together, hinting at a future where these two technologies could revolutionize various sectors.

Tune in to Signals for a deep dive into the blockchain ecosystem and its future prospects.

Guest-at-a-Glance

💡 Name: Erik Ellingson 

💡What they do: Partner

💡Company: CMT Digital

💡Noteworthy: Erik is a seasoned investor in the blockchain ecosystem, with a keen focus on early-stage investments. His insights into the potential of blockchain technology, especially in the context of core infrastructure opportunities, are noteworthy.

💡 Where to find them: LinkedIn

Key Insights

The Importance of Core Infrastructure in Blockchain

Erik Ellingson highlights the significance of core infrastructure in the blockchain ecosystem. He emphasizes the need for tools and infrastructure that simplify the user experience on blockchains, making it more accessible for non-technical teams. He also mentions the importance of payment systems and global on-off ramps, which are crucial for bringing blockchain technology to the masses. Ellingson believes that these elements are key to serving the broader community and driving the adoption of blockchain technology.

Content Generation and Blockchain

Ellingson identifies content generation as a key area of focus within the blockchain ecosystem. He points to the builder economy, digital fashion, gaming, sports, and loyalty programs tied to big brands as potential areas for blockchain application. He suggests that the integration of real-world and Metaverse technology through blockchain could drive engagement and rewards, making it a promising use case for the technology in the next five years.

The Need for Regulatory Frameworks

Ellingson discusses the need for a regulatory framework for blockchain technology, particularly in the US. He suggests that the US needs to follow suit with other countries that have established regulatory frameworks for blockchain and crypto. Ellingson believes that regulation is necessary and that the US lawmakers will eventually get it right. He also mentions the importance of partnerships with organizations like the Blockchain Association and the Chamber of Digital Commerce in developing such frameworks.

Episode Summary

In this episode of Signals, Nick Mazing sits down with Daniella Woolf, Director at Danesmead ESG. They dive into the alphabet soup of ESG and sustainability acronyms. The focus is on the TCFD framework, a key tool for disclosing climate-related risks and opportunities, along with the different stages of maturity of the ESG frameworks across the globe. The conversation also covers CSRD, ISSB, and PRI. 

Danesmead ESG, a UK-based consultancy, works with asset managers, hedge funds, private equity managers, allocators, and corporates across the US, UK/EU and APAC. 

The driving force behind this surge in ESG initiatives is investor demand. More and more, investors are looking for companies that not only turn a profit, but also make a positive impact on the world. Tune in to learn more about this evolving landscape.

Guest-at-a-Glance

💡 Name: Daniella Woolf

💡What she does: Director, ESG Consulting

💡Company: Danesmead ESG

💡Noteworthy: As the Director of Danesmead ESG, Daniella Woolf brings a wealth of experience in ESG consultancy, having worked on ESG initiatives at a bulge bracket bank, as well as at an investment management firm, prior to joining Danesmead.

💡 Where to find Daniella: LinkedIn

Key Insights

Navigating the ESG Acronym Jungle

The ESG landscape is a maze of acronyms, with over 350 representing different regulations, conventions, standards, and industry bodies. Key ones include TCFD (Task Force for Climate-Related Financial Disclosures), a framework for disclosing climate-related risks and opportunities, and ISSB (International Sustainability Standards Board), an initiative to develop sustainability-related reporting standards. The goal is to create a global standard incorporating other standards, including TCFD and SASB.

Danesmead ESG: Guiding Global Entities Through ESG Implementation

Danesmead ESG, a UK-based consultancy, has worked with over 40 global hedge funds, private equity firms, and corporates. They assist clients with various ESG implementation and alignment projects, often in relation to regulatory sustainable investment type labels or alignment to other industry bodies like the Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI). The majority of their clients are driven by investor demand for ESG initiatives.

Unraveling the Net Zero vs. Carbon Neutrality Conundrum

The terms 'net zero' and 'carbon neutrality' are often used interchangeably but have distinct meanings. Carbon neutrality involves offsetting emissions by investing in projects that reduce carbon emissions elsewhere. On the other hand, net zero is a longer-term goal of reducing all emissions as much as possible and only offsetting what's left. Understanding these differences is crucial when evaluating company disclosures and claims about their environmental impact.