Whilst it has been difficult to decipher amidst the noisy pessimism, the UK economy has in fact been on a steady upgrade cycle throughout 2023. Having bottomed out in November 2022 in seeing a prolonged recession throughout 2023, June saw economist consensus move to forecasting a UK output expansion of +0.1% for 2023. We believe there are still modest upgrades to come over the near-term to close in our growth forecast of +0.4% for the year. However, UK-focused investors can be forgiven for growing concerns that this good news is in the rear-view mirror and recent upward shifts to interest rate expectations are more relevant to the growth outlook. These higher interest rates will sharply increase the nominal hurdle rate to undertake property transactions, capital investment, and the costs of refinancing existing activities. In this note we appraise the domestic economic outlook and update our output growth forecasts - downgrading our outlook for 2024 and 2025. The risk of policy mistake from an overtightening of UK monetary policy has grown in likelihood over the last three months and, whilst it is not all the Bank of England's fault, outcome matters more than attribution.