AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. GPT-2 to GPT-4 took us from ~preschooler to ~smart high-schooler abilities in 4 years. Tracing trendlines in compute (~0.5 orders of magnitude or OOMs/year), algorithmic efficiencies (~0.5 OOMs/year), and “unhobbling” gains (from chatbot to agent), we should expect another preschooler-to-high-schooler-sized qualitative jump by 2027.

AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. GPT-2 to GPT-4 took us from ~preschooler to ~smart high-schooler abilities in 4 years. Tracing trendlines in compute (~0.5 orders of magnitude or OOMs/year), algorithmic efficiencies (~0.5 OOMs/year), and “unhobbling” gains (from chatbot to agent), we should expect another preschooler-to-high-schooler-sized qualitative jump by 2027.

AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. GPT-2 to GPT-4 took us from ~preschooler to ~smart high-schooler abilities in 4 years. Tracing trendlines in compute (~0.5 orders of magnitude or OOMs/year), algorithmic efficiencies (~0.5 OOMs/year), and “unhobbling” gains (from chatbot to agent), we should expect another preschooler-to-high-schooler-sized qualitative jump by 2027.&nbsp;

Situational Awareness: 1. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs1 (Part A)

Katja Grace reads other people's stuff out loud. This is not meant to be public. If you aren't friends with Katja, it probably isn't for you.&nbsp;

Technology

Katja Grace reads other people's stuff out loud. This is not meant to be public. If you aren't friends with Katja, it probably isn't for you. 

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Situational Awareness: 1. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs1 (Part A)

Situational Awareness: 1. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs1 (Part A)