There are growing signs that the country is heading for a recession. Insolvencies are growing at a rate not seen since 2009, while output in the SME sector has fallen by 20%.

SME businesses are disproportionately affected by the fuel crisis, so this may be a temporary issue since forecourt petrol prices are beginning to fall.

There are the major supermarket chains driving a price war, and this should see headline inflation moderate. This will add another layer to the Bank of England’s interest rate decision, which will be announced at lunchtime tomorrow.

Andrew Bailey and his colleagues are split about whether a further 50 basis points is justified. So far in the current cycle, the Bank has been reactive to data and over the past month inflation has had less of an impact while globally, slowing economies have been making headlines.

The financial markets are still pricing in 50 basis points, but it is likely that Bailey will make this another dovish hike and provide advance guidance regarding the bank’s possible reaction to a slowing economy.