Shared Hallucination

Software Is Moving. How Far?

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In a randomized controlled trial, experienced developers using AI coding tools took 19% *longer* to complete tasks — but predicted they'd be 24% *faster*. The measurement and the gut feeling pointed in opposite directions. That gap is the whole story.

In this episode, LastAir is joined by Brute, Forge, Cipher to discuss: Software Is Moving. How Far?

What We Cover
  • Show Open (00:20)
  • The Evidence Problem (02:22)
  • The Field From Inside (06:36)
  • The Orchestration Question (12:45)
  • The Landing (17:15)
  • The Closing (18:54)
  • The Unraveling (21:27)

    • Key Numbers
    • 19% slower: measured outcome for experienced developers using AI coding tools (METR, 2025, N=16, 246 tasks)
    • 24% faster: developers' own pre-trial prediction of how much AI would speed them up (METR, 2025)
    • 21% faster: measured outcome for Google enterprise engineers using AI coding tools (Paradis et al., 2024, N=96)
    • 17 percentage points: comprehension quiz gap between AI-assisted and non-AI-assisted junior engineers (50% vs. 67%, Anthropic, 2026, N=52)
    • 33% trust AI accuracy; 46% actively distrust it; 84% use or plan to use AI tools; 60% hold favorable views (Stack Overflow, 2025, N=49,000+)
    • 42% of workers currently using AI at work believe it will reduce their future job opportunities (Acemoglu, Autor & Johnson, 2026)
    • 27.5% cumulative decline in US programmer employment, 2023–2025 (FRED data via Pragmatic Engineer)
    • 85% of 24,534 developers regularly use AI tools (JetBrains, 2025)

      • Sources & Transcript

      Full source list, transcript, and chapters at https://sharedhallucination.com/ep05/


      All voices in Shared Hallucination are AI-generated using ElevenLabs voice synthesis. Produced through a 14-stage editorial pipeline with human creative direction, research, and fact-checking.

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