Copyright 2021 - Barry Cinnamon, The Energy Show

I’m starting off the year with my Ten Solar and Storage Trends for 2021. But first, a recap from Dave Barry, my favorite chronicler of all that is crazy and warped in this world: “2020 was a year of nonstop awfulness, a year when we kept saying it couldn’t possibly get worse, and it always did. This was a year in which our only moments of genuine, unadulterated happiness were when we were able to buy toilet paper.“

Looking ahead to 2021:

The solar investment tax credit was extended at the last minute by President Trump
Home electric bills went through the roof in 2020, and will stay high for most of 2021
The President, Senate and House of Representatives are committed to accelerating transition to clean energy

So here are my predictions for solar and storage trends in 2021:

All roof orientations are fair game for solar
Buildings will be designed to be carbon negative
Skill levels for solar and storage contractors will increase
Module level power electronics duopoly will continue
Customer service and warranties are key battery system selection criteria
UL 9540 requirements will stall new battery system releases
Rooftop solar systems should be oversized
EV chargers will be common options for new solar and battery installations
The home of the future will have two batteries in every garage
Whole home battery backup will remain expensive

For the details of these predictions, please listen up to this week’s Energy Show.

Solar and Storage Trends 2021

The Energy Show, hosted by Barry Cinnamon, is a weekly 30 minute talk show that runs every Saturday on KDOW Radio AM in San Jose California.

Every week Barry provides practical money-saving tips on ways to reduce your home and business energy consumption.

Barry Cinnamon heads up Cinnamon Energy Systems (a San Jose residential and commercial  solar and energy storage contractor) and Spice Solar (suppliers of built-in solar racking technology). After 10,000+ installations at Akeena Solar and Westinghouse Solar, he's developed a pretty good perspective on the real-world economics of rooftop solar -- as well as the best products and services for homeowners, manufacturers and installers. His rooftop tinkering led to the development of integrated racking (released in 2007), AC solar modules (released in 2009), and Spice Solar (the fastest way to install rooftop solar modules).

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This week's Energy Show dives into the tumultuous landscape of the clean energy industry, painting a picture of contrasting fortunes akin to the classic “Tale of Two Cities.” On one hand, we witness a surge in demand for clean energy, driven by improving economics, lower equipment costs, and rising electric rates, alongside enticing incentives. Yet, on the flip side, California experiences its first-ever decline in rooftop solar installations, coupled with a slowdown in electric vehicle growth and a resurgence of incumbent fossil fuel companies. 

Amidst this dichotomy, our guest, Jon Semingson, President of Peak Demand, Inc., sheds light on the critical challenges plaguing the industry's infrastructure and human resources. From a scarcity of skilled construction labor to a dearth of executive-level talent, the hurdles to industry growth loom large. Moreover, financing remains a linchpin, with uncertainties surrounding tax equity and interest rate trends. 

The urgency of these issues is underscored by the grid's perilous state, with transmission and interconnection queues adding to the mounting backlog of energy projects. As California grapples with policy-induced setbacks in residential, commercial, and community solar segments, the looming question remains: can utility-scale solar bridge the gap as electricity demand escalates, fueled by the surge in electric vehicles, AI, and heating needs?

This podcast doesn't just highlight the industry's challenges but offers a platform for critical discussion and solutions. For a deeper dive into these pressing issues and insights from industry experts like Jon Semingson, tune in to the full episode at EnergyShow.Biz.

Limits of Growth in the Clean Energy Industry with Jon Semingson

I read an avalanche of media criticism when Elon Musk fired his entire SuperCharger team a few weeks ago. In spite of all the whining, it was a good business decision for Tesla.

Here’s why: expanding and running a fast charging network is a lousy business.

Installation costs are high, permitting and construction delays are extensive, and revenues from charging cannot overcome the high electricity costs charged by utilities. According to a McKinsey and Company study in October of 2023, most EV fast charging sites are swimming in red ink, losing $45,000 a year at every 4 port charging station. A back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that a typical Starbucks in California would have to sell 56,000 extra cups of coffee every year just to break even on EV charging. That’s a lotta Joe.

In spite of complaints about high gasoline prices, gasoline is a worldwide commodity with reasonable substitutes. Prices are set by the free market. But prices for electricity supplied to charging stations are set by utilities who have a monopoly on electricity sales. It's illegal for anyone other than a utility to resell electricity, so utilities can charge whatever they want. To make matters worse, Public Utility Commissions in many states let utilities run wild with sky-high electric rates and record profits.

I’m a big EV fan, but the lack of EV charging infrastructure coupled with the extraordinarily high costs of charging will stifle the industry’s growth. California’s goal of selling only zero emissions vehicles by 2035 is a pipe dream. In order to hit that goal we need to quickly change the monopoly utility business model so that EV charging makes sense.

But there's another faster and cheaper option: solar-powered EV charging. Solar charging is easy to do for homes — the average driver in California needs just 7 more solar panels to meet their annual driving needs. Taking it one step further, we should couple EV chargers with commercial solar installations. Think about it: shouldn’t we charge our cars during the day, when it's sunny, from inexpensive rooftop solar, at work, where the cars are parked? Instead of waiting to charge our cars at public stations which get expensive power from utility solar farms 500 miles away?

Tesla’s Supercharger network challenges are just the tip of the iceberg. For more about costs and practical solutions to EV charging, please tune in to the full SuperCharger podcast at www.energyshow.biz

Elon Musk Is Right About The SuperCharger Business

10 years in the solar and storage industry qualifies most industry veterans as a solar old timer. But there is one person who stands out as a beacon of leadership, longevity and success. Ed Murray has been heating water molecules (solar thermal), converting photons to electrons (solar PV) and saving customers money since 1978.

That’s 322 dog years!

Ed Murray, CEO of Aztec Solar in Sacramento, knows solar thermal, PV and storage technology like the back of his hand. He’s managed to run his successful solar business in spite of the “solar coaster” craziness.

But what impresses me the most about Ed is his industry leadership. Ed has been on the Board of Directors of the California Solar and Storage Association for 40 years, has been serving as its president since 2016, has been on the Board of the North American Board of Certified Energy Practitioners for 14 years, and served on the Board of the Solar Energy Industries Association for 14 years.

For a detailed dive into what it takes to be successful in the solar and storage industry for the long term, you don’t want to miss this episode of the Energy Show at www.energyshow.biz

40+ Successful Years in Solar and Storage

It’s not a flippant comment or a classic jazz solo — but an existential question about the devastating trend our civilization is on due to climate change.

The history of Earth Day shows how the worldwide environmental movement has evolved from concerns about in-your-face air and water pollution … to a focus on the invisible hazard of rising CO2 emissions.

To a large degree we’ve cleaned up the worst of the visible air pollution, contaminated water, and toxic wastes hiding under a few feet of topsoil. In the first few decades of Earth Day, consumers, companies and governments were all pulling in the same direction to right these environmental wrongs.

But something insidious happened due to the profits that can be reaped by polluting the Earth. Economists call it a Negative Externality (the imposition of a cost to one group of people as an indirect effect of the actions of another group of people). To fossil fuel companies, the negative externality they cause by producing oil and gas — which when burned pollutes the Earth with CO2 — is just a side effect to their record profits. For decades fossil fuel companies have been fighting and concealing this unprofitable truth.

There is hope amidst this grim reality. The history of Earth Day shows how public opinion can indeed change this trajectory — especially as the effects of CO2 pollution impact all of us with flooded shores, burning homes and unlivable cities. For insights into our progress amidst this grim reality, please Listen Up to this week’s Energy Show.

Earth Day … So What?

Welcome back to Part 2 of our interview with Scott Sullivan, my friend and one of the best networked executives in the industry. Earthquake excitement has diminished in the New Jersey area, but seismic changes in solar continue around the country. 

In Part 1 we discussed what happens in the solar and storage industry — really every industry — when company profits decline. It’s a tough adjustment to make, and many companies have not yet recovered from this high interest rate environment.


Nevertheless, the majority of companies have figured out the formula, and the topics that Scott and I discussed are summarized below:

* What are the characteristics of a great solar and storage contractor?
 * What should potential customers look for in a contractor?
 * Have you seen any changes with the solar panels offered by contractors?
 * Have you seen any changes with the inverters and batteries offered by contractors?
 * Is solar financing recovering yet from high interest rates?
 * Are Virtual Power Plants (VPP) and Vehicle To Grid (V2G) technologies getting much traction?
 * And last but not least, what do you do for fun?

If you missed any of Part 1 or Part 2 of our podcasts with Scott Sullivan, please visit ENERGYSHOW.BIZ and listen to the full podcasts.

Solar and Storage Trends 2021

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