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Soldera's Q3 GO Outlook | State of the GO Market | Soldera Markets #10
As Q3 unfolds, we analyze the evolving dynamics shaping the European Guarantees of Origin (GO) market while reviewing our Q2 predictions.This episode is based on our full in-app quarterly report available to Soldera members. You can also listen to this episode your favourite podcast platform here.
Looking Back at Q2 and Assessing Our Predictions
β Market experienced prolonged decline before dramatic recovery in final weeks πβ Prices bottomed at 40 cents before recovering to 80 cents, validating under-supply predictionsβ German June disclosure deadline created delayed market activity separate from March patterns π©πͺ
We Need To Talk About Norwayβ¦
β Q2 Episode correction: Total Norwegian GO consumption actually decreased year-over-year despite record cancellations. β Problematic government behaviour impacting the GO market intensifies π³π΄
Critical Supply Dynamics
β Europe producing 8-9% less renewable energy than last year, creating 50 TWh deficit β Nordic hydro reserves normalizing after record-high levels, hot summer predictions threatening further decline βοΈβ 2024 vintage GOs now in end-of-life phase as traders rotate inventory π
Demand Outlook and Regulatory Shifts
β CSRD scope reduction from 50,000 to 10,000 companies but targeting largest emitters πβ Hydrogen RFNBO requirement relaxation lobbying could unlock hundreds of TWh demand β Corporate sustainability commitments remaining strong despite regulatory changes β Forward curve premiums moderating as regulatory uncertainty impacts long-term pricing π
Strategic Market Considerations
β Forward markets showing 50% premiums for 2026 vintage as utilities hedge exposure πβ Record-low oversupply reduction expected to significantly impact market dynamicsβ New government auctions emerging while market fragmentation challenges persist πβ Cross-border virtual GO accounts on the horizon at Soldera. Watch this space β¦
As always, stay connected with our quarterly market outlooks to track the GO landscape. Catch our next outlook in Q4!
#GuaranteesOfOrigin #RenewableEnergy #EnergyMarkets #Renewables
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podcast.soldera.org
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By Soldera Markets: Exploring Renewable Energy & Guarantees of Origin πAs Q3 unfolds, we analyze the evolving dynamics shaping the European Guarantees of Origin (GO) market while reviewing our Q2 predictions.This episode is based on our full in-app quarterly report available to Soldera members. You can also listen to this episode your favourite podcast platform here.
Looking Back at Q2 and Assessing Our Predictions
β Market experienced prolonged decline before dramatic recovery in final weeks πβ Prices bottomed at 40 cents before recovering to 80 cents, validating under-supply predictionsβ German June disclosure deadline created delayed market activity separate from March patterns π©πͺ
We Need To Talk About Norwayβ¦
β Q2 Episode correction: Total Norwegian GO consumption actually decreased year-over-year despite record cancellations. β Problematic government behaviour impacting the GO market intensifies π³π΄
Critical Supply Dynamics
β Europe producing 8-9% less renewable energy than last year, creating 50 TWh deficit β Nordic hydro reserves normalizing after record-high levels, hot summer predictions threatening further decline βοΈβ 2024 vintage GOs now in end-of-life phase as traders rotate inventory π
Demand Outlook and Regulatory Shifts
β CSRD scope reduction from 50,000 to 10,000 companies but targeting largest emitters πβ Hydrogen RFNBO requirement relaxation lobbying could unlock hundreds of TWh demand β Corporate sustainability commitments remaining strong despite regulatory changes β Forward curve premiums moderating as regulatory uncertainty impacts long-term pricing π
Strategic Market Considerations
β Forward markets showing 50% premiums for 2026 vintage as utilities hedge exposure πβ Record-low oversupply reduction expected to significantly impact market dynamicsβ New government auctions emerging while market fragmentation challenges persist πβ Cross-border virtual GO accounts on the horizon at Soldera. Watch this space β¦
As always, stay connected with our quarterly market outlooks to track the GO landscape. Catch our next outlook in Q4!
#GuaranteesOfOrigin #RenewableEnergy #EnergyMarkets #Renewables
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit podcast.soldera.org