SpaceX Bagholder Podcast

00:00 - Back at $170, up ~15% in two sessions: the "visible incremental progress" trade

02:20 - Starship Flight 14: first Starlink V3s to orbit, engine-outs, and the call to go orbital

07:36 - Flight 15/16 NET dates vs reality: Raptor V3 engines pulled for cryo testing

09:08 - Terafab: Intel vs TSMC fighting over allocation, advanced facility ahead of schedule

13:32 - AI roundup: Grok 4.7 sucks, Opus 5.5 top dog, Meta's Muse vs Grokbot, Gemini 4, Reflection AI

28:25 - White House AI summit nothingburger, Anthropic's wet lab, Elon/Shivon split

00:00 - The AI "pause" / frontier pacing push, and why SpaceX shareholders hate it

06:45 - Construction pace: Starbase, TerraFab, Giga Texas fab, and the Louisiana island site

10:38 - Grok 4.7 still not out, now "Opus 5 tier"; Elon pivots hype to Grok 4.8

13:49 - Meta's Muse clones Grokbot, and why that's bullish for compute demand

16:30 - GPT-6 Astra: OpenAI is out of compute, the Microsoft-via-SpaceX angle

18:25 - CFO Brett Johnson at Goldman Sachs: $1.1B/month compute deal, 2027 guide cut to 5-10 GW

21:06 - Starship Flight 14: "revenue generating" but still slipping to Sept 19/22

00:00 - Starbase Louisiana: $100B spaceport, $100M for 125,000 acres; Starship Flight 14 set for September 15

06:16 - Orbital AI data centers pulled forward to Q4 2027; NVIDIA Q2 earnings and TerraFab tenant speculation

09:53 - OpenAI roundup: Jalapeno chip vs NVIDIA, Cursor cut from ChatGPT subscriptions, Astra hacking report

18:51 - Grok 4.6 now on AWS, Google Cloud, and Azure; Starshield AI Pentagon contract

21:30 - Wrap-up and positions

We discuss OpenAI and Anthropic's reported Q2 2026 numbers and whether or not their growth rates are sufficient for SpaceX's needs. Can Grokbot spur more growth?

00:00 - Intro: Anthropic and OpenAI Q2 revenue numbers, and why SpaceX bag holders care

03:40 - Fable 5 is the smartest model, but it's stuck at ~10% of Anthropic's revenue mix

05:07 - The math: OAI And Anthropic Revenues

07:26 - The two lanes of AI spend: building the app vs serving the customer (Duolingo example)

12:54 - Grokbot: from harness to wholesale employee replacement, and salary-sized token budgets

17:20 - September releases: GPT-6 Astra, Fable 5.1, and Grok 4.7

21:25 - Starship Flight 14 slips to September 15 — and will they catch the ship?

To remain on track to get to 300 by january 2028, SpaceX needs to get these items done in 2026

00:00 - The Cursor acquisition closes: Cursor's dual role at SpaceX — Grok training and driving usage

04:47 - Grok bot vs. OpenClaw: a managed agent at ~10x cheaper token prices

10:29 - The culture edge: acceleration vs. safety-minded competitors

11:57 - Deal financials: $60B all-stock, ARR doubled to $4B, Q3 AI segment set to turn profitable

15:49 - Terafab construction has started — ahead of the 2029-2030 consensus

Analysis on recent compute growth estimates and really the insane ramp available in 2027

00:00 - Highest morale yet: the $100B ARR math (2 GW × $50B/GW)

02:44 - 2027: is Elon's 10 GW target actually plausible?

03:55 - The build-out: locations, turbines, and the labor bottleneck

09:50 - Who pays: frontier labs, 50% margins, and the Microsoft workaround

16:55 - Demand check: OpenRouter tokens 6.4T → 69T in half a year

19:59 - NVIDIA's $500B fund → $6T valuation by 2028

low key best earnings report ive ever seen tbh

00:00 - Intro

00:36 - AI segment: revenue, compute buildout & capex

09:23 - Space segment & Starship

11:04 - Starlink & direct-to-cell

18:30 - Guidance & outlook

20:27 - NVIDIA exclusivity & orbital compute

25:22 - Position recap

An earnings preview/walkthrough and personal estimate for Q2 2026 SpaceX earnings

0:00 Intro & Q2 2026 expectations ($7.23B vs Street $6.87B)

0:38 Space Launch segment

1:34 Launch mix: customer vs. internal payloads

2:38 Starship R&D costs & segment losses

4:51 Connectivity segment: subscribers & ARPU

7:20 Government, enterprise & mobile revenue drivers

10:20 AI segment: Anthropic compute ramp

11:46 AI operating loss & adjusted EBITDA turning positive

13:41 Questions for management & wrap-up

Successful flight 13 + elon announces flight 14 will land the ship and more