Squawk Box Europe Express

Crude prices slip as President Trump claims an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine days after announcing a controversial diesel deal with Moscow. The U.S. President has also said he's considering joining Saudi Arabia in its fight against the Iran-backed Houthis following strikes on Riyadh's main airport which killed 13 people. Elsewhere in markets, US and European futures point to gains at the open, in a week set to be dominated by bank earnings. And, China and the EU hold "intensive" talks on the auto trade amid concerns over market dumping.

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CNBC confirms that OpenAI told investors its annualised revenue came in roughly $20 billion below that expected at the end of September, with the news pushing AI names including Nvidia, Oracle and Coreweave deep into the red. Meanwhile, Ray Dalio tells us the stock market's cushion against rising yields is shrinking - even amid expected strength in corporate earnings - warning there are not enough investors to meet funding requirements. And President Trump promises not to attack Iran until after November's mid-term elections, saying productive discussions are ongoing - despite Houthi rebels targeting Saudi airports, killing three and forcing hundreds of flights to be cancelled.

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The global bond rout eases as the latest Fed minutes dial back the odds of a rate hike this month - shifting expectations to December instead - while Wednesday's successful 10-year Treasury auction draws solid demand, bringing the yield down from a 24-year high. Meanwhile, France braces for further student protests today as Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu admits anger over school conditions is not unprovoked, while he also moves to cap next year's public deficit at 5% to ease debt spiral fears. And, EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič touches down in China for two days of trade talks, with Brussels eyeing a cap on hybrid car imports as the bloc’s trade deficit with Beijing balloons to more than €1 billion a day.

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The S&P 500 shatters records to close above 7,800 points for the first time, propelled by a massive tech rally is masking a broader market sell-off. Beneath the surface, trouble is brewing. We dive into the bond market volatility pushing the 10-year Treasury yield back past 5.3% and unpack UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti’s urgent warning about France's debt crisis. Plus, we look at Mistral AI’s bold new model, "Le Chonk," and the Houthi attacks that have Brent crude surging back over $100 a barrel.

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As stock markets advance, so do bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury topping 5.3%, while investors continue to dump French paper, taking the spread with German bunds to its widest since the Eurozone debt crisis and the euro to a 17-month low. In the face of a looming debt spiral, former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane tells CNBC that governments must outline plans to curb spending. And, AI executives testify in New York and Sydney over safety fears and rogue agents, with OpenAI admitting that its actions and response to the Australian government hack were "not good enough".

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The U.S. dollar hits a 17-month high against the euro as French debt worries and political risk shake European markets, even as soft U.S. jobs data prompts investors to scale back Federal Reserve rate hike bets. Meanwhile, crude prices edge lower as Middle East exports recover, G7 nations release 100 million barrels of strategic reserves, and Iran sets its terms for the Strait of Hormuz. In M&A, French industrial giant Schneider Electric strikes a massive $22.6 billion deal to buy U.S. software group PTC to capture the industrial AI boom. Plus, we are live from London at the Goldman Sachs "10,000 Small Businesses - How Britain Can Win" conference, spotlighting U.K. growth and innovation with key guests.

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Treasurys get some short-lived relief after the 10-year yield hits levels not seen in nearly a quarter of a century - but borrowing costs tick higher again as investor attention turns to September's non-farm payrolls report. Meanwhile, Europe's borrowing costs also coming under heavy pressure, with the UK becoming the first G7 country to pay 6% on long-term borrowing since 2012, while fiscal uncertainty in France sees the euro tank against the dollar.

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Treasury yields hover around levels not seen in nearly a quarter of a century as lenders taper their Fed hike forecasts. Meanwhile crude prices are whipsaw, even as supply concerns ease, while Kpler says oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz reached pre-war levels this week. And tech CEOs have reportedly rounded on Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei amid growing fears over the safety of AI. - for pod.

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President Trump has hailed what he calls a 'morally binding' document on AI guardrails in the face of growing safety concerns - and has signed an executive order to rename the technology after a luncheon with tech leaders at the White House. Meanwhile OpenAI CEO Sam Altman tells CNBC that the firm needs to improve its models safely and confidently before it goes public. And another day, another new high for yields: The yield on 30-year U.S. paper hits its highest in nearly 25 years, as the global bond sell-off continues - with September one of the worst months for sovereigns in years.

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Existential risks to humanity – that is what Anthropic has reportedly said in its prospectus, seen by Reuters and the FT, despite still eyeing a $2 trillion valuation. That news comes after OpenAI pulls its latest model over safety concerns, while Mistral AI CEO Arthur Mensch tells CNBC the current AI slowdown debate in the U.S. is a cover for the “negligence” of some rivals. In markets, bond yields continue their inexorable march higher as President Trump rejects a proposal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. And in the U.K., speculation mounts that Andy Burnham could signal an end to the totemic 'triple lock' on U.K. pension payments - as he prepares to address Labour's party conference for the first time as Prime Minister.

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