Timing the market is easy in hindsight. Making the right call when the cycle is turning is where most OEMs feel the pressure.

In this episode, Kyler Mason and John Gough sit down with Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research Co., LLC, to unpack how data, forecasting, and judgment come together in an industry defined by cycles. As a longtime analyst in the commercial vehicle space, Steve explains how ACT collects and synthesizes market data from OEMs, suppliers, and freight markets to help leaders anticipate what's next.

Steve shares how macroeconomic forces like consumption, freight demand, regulation, and tariffs shape truck demand, why the industry continues to chase cycles it knows are coming, and how OEMs are thinking about the next inflection points. He also discusses where technologies like alternative fuels and autonomy are making a real impact, where expectations have outpaced reality, and what smart leaders do when the rules keep changing.

Listen in for a grounded look at how OEMs and dealers can make better bets when uncertainty is the only constant.

Key Takeaways:

1. Use Market Cycles as Signals, Not Surprises: Truck cycles rarely repeat, but they follow familiar patterns that leaders can prepare for if they watch momentum and inflection points closely
2. Separate Structural Demand from Short-Term Noise: Consumption and freight growth create long-term demand even when short-term shocks distort the market
3. Make Data a Starting Point, Not the Answer: Strong decisions combine transparent assumptions, good data, and informed judgment rather than blind trust in forecasts

Timestamps:

(00:00) Meet Steve Tam

(01:00) How ACT collects OEM data without crossing antitrust lines

(02:48) Turning industry data into forecasts leaders can act on

(04:11) What ACT got wrong and right about market shocks like COVID

(05:30) Why medium-duty trucks create more stability than Class 8

(06:16) Who really uses truck market data beyond OEMs

(08:00) How alternative fuels and freight data changed ACT's strategy

(10:30) Why timing matters more than demand in cyclical markets

(12:45) What the industry still refuses to learn about overcapacity

(15:30) How EPA 2027 regulations drive pre-buy behavior

(19:00) Tariffs, uncertainty, and why forecasting is harder than ever

(22:48) Making billion-dollar bets with imperfect data

(36:07) Which tech trends matter and which ones do not

(41:03) The long-term bet Steve Tam would make as a chief strategist