Quiver Financial News

Stock Market Recap - Too much data to talk about for the week of Oct. 31st.

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Good afternoon and welcome to Quiver Financial news and this weeks episode of our Market Recap.  Today is Friday Nov. 4st and these are the top stories for the week of Oct. 31st. 

There was so much data released this week we are going to even try and cover it all in this episode.  We posted the date and times of the release so if you feel adventurous check out the description box of this weeks episode.

Top items that investors should pay attentions to were lower Manufacturing ISM numbers.  We are now 90 basis points from the historical view of having a contracting manufacturing sector.  This could mean a potential increase in job losses if this continues.

The Federal reserve as expected hiked rate another 75 basis points and Powell himself said he has no plan of stopping.  They raised their target from around 4% to now 5%. 

Unemployment rate ticked up so modestly that its almost not worth mentioning.  What I will mention is that this key stat is what has so many investors and economist sitting back on their heels thinking this house of cards is stable.

To the stock market, the rally that we called two weeks ago has continued and pushed us to another inflection point.  The put to call ratio is at its highest point since the bottom of the markets in March of 2020.  Because of this I would say trade safe for the coming week.  Normally we would agree that a pull back here would be expected.  However a rally into a close on a Friday and the over bearish sentiment since powells speech has us sitting back and watching as well.

And those are the top stories from this week that we feel you should know about.  Thank you for listening and Stay tuned for next weeks Market recap.

 

Monday, October 31

  • 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, October (GS 48.0, consensus 47.0, last 45.7): We estimate that the Chicago PMI rebounded 2.3pt to 48.0 in October, as the Chicago PMI has overshot to the downside relative to other business surveys (GS manufacturing survey tracker -1.5pt to 48.8 in October).
  • 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, October (consensus -18.5, last -17.2)

    • Tuesday, November 1

    • 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, October final (consensus 49.9, last 49.9)
  • 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, September (GS 10,000k, consensus 9,625k, last 10,053k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings declined to 10,000k in September.
  • 10:00 AM Construction spending, September (GS -0.3%, consensus -0.5%, last -0.7%): We estimate construction spending decreased 0.3% in September.
  • 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, October (GS 49.9, consensus 50.0, last 50.9): We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index declined by 1pt to 49.9 in October, reflecting weak industrial trends abroad and convergence towards other manufacturing surveys (GS manufacturing survey tracker -1.5pt to 48.8 in October).
  • 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, October (GS 14.6mn, consensus 14.3mn, last 13.49mn)

    • Wednesday, November 2

    • 08:15 AM ADP employment report, October (GS +200k, consensus +180k, last +208k): We estimate a 200k rise in ADP payroll employment in October.
  • 02:00 PM FOMC statement, November 1-2 meeting: We expect the FOMC to deliver a fourth 75bp hike at its November meeting this week, raising the target range for the fed funds rate to 3.75-4%. The focus will be on what comes next, and we expect Chair Powell to hint that the FOMC will likely slow the pace to 50bp in December. We expect the FOMC to eventually pair that slowdown with a somewhat higher projected peak funds rate in the December dot plot. Our forecast calls for hikes of 75bp in November, 50bp in December, 25bp in February, and 25bp in March with the funds rate range peaking at 4.75-5%.

    • Thursday, November 3

    • 08:30 AM Trade balance, September (GS -$72.4bn, consensus -$72.0bn, last -$67.4bn): We estimate the trade deficit widened by $5bn to $72.4bn in September, reflecting declining goods exports and rising goods imports in the advanced goods report.
  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q3 preliminary (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.5%, last -4.1%): Unit labor costs, Q3 preliminary (GS +4.7%, consensus +4.0%, last +10.2%): We estimate nonfarm productivity growth of +0.5% in Q3 (qoq saar) and unit labor cost—compensation per hour divided by output per hour—growth of +4.7%.
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended October 29 (GS 215k, consensus 220k, last 217k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended October 22 (consensus 1,450k, last 1,438k): We estimate initial jobless claims edged down to 215k in the week ended October 29.
  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, October final (consensus 46.6, last 46.6)
  • 10:00 AM Factory orders, September (GS flat, consensus +0.3%, last flat); Durable goods orders, September final (consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, September final (last -0.5%); Core capital goods orders, September final (last -0.7%); Core capital goods shipments, September final (last -0.5%): We estimate that factory orders were unchanged in September. Durable goods orders rose 0.4% in the September advance report but core capital goods orders declined 0.7%.
  • 10:00 AM ISM services index, October (GS 55.7, consensus 55.1, last 56.7): We estimate that the ISM services index declined by 1pt to 55.7 in October, reflecting convergence towards other business surveys but a sentiment boost from rebounding stock markets. Our non-manufacturing survey tracker fell by 2.0pt to 51.2 in October.

    • Friday, November 4

    • 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, October (GS +225k, consensus +190k, last +263k); Private payroll employment, October (GS +225k, consensus +195k, last +288k); Average hourly earnings (mom), October (GS +0.35%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Average hourly earnings (yoy), October (GS +4.7%, consensus +4.7%, last +5.0%); Unemployment rate, October (GS 3.5%, consensus 3.6%, last 3.5%); Labor force participation rate, October (GS 62.3%, consensus 62.4%, last 62.3%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 225k in October (mom sa), a slowdown from the +263k pace in September reflecting sequentially lower—but still very elevated—labor demand. Big Data indicators were mixed in the month, but jobless claims remained very low. We also note that job growth tends to pick up in October when the labor market is tight, as firms frontload fall and pre-holiday hiring. We estimate the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5%, reflecting a rise in household employment and flat-to-up labor force participation. We estimate a 0.35% increase in average hourly earnings (mom sa), reflecting positive calendar effects and a possible boost from autumn recruitment efforts.
  • 10:00 AM Boston Fed President Collins (FOMC voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Susan Collins will discuss the economic and monetary policy outlook at an event hosted by the Brookings Institution. On October 12, Collins said, “We are focused and resolute and have the tools to bring inflation back down to the two-percent target…I am anticipating or expecting additional interest rate changes.”
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