Financial Review

Stuck in Neutral


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…Stocks bounce. Turkey? Home Depot shines. Household debt increases. Collections drop. CBO forecasts 3.1% growth this year. Wages have been stuck in neutral for 45 years. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-14-2018 DOW + 112 = 25,299 SPX + 18 = 2839 NAS + 51 = 7870 RUT + 17 = 1692 10 Y + .02 = 2.89% OIL – .48 = 66.72 GOLD + .60 = 1194.70 Stocks snapped a 4-day string of losses Yesterday we said the problems in Turkey really should not plague the US stock market. The country’s currency, the lira, has fallen sharply, dropping more than 25 percent in the past week to a record low, though it recovered somewhat today. Sure, the collapse of the lira was a legitimate concern, but Turkey is not a major trade partner. Turkish president Erdogan called for a boycott of American made electronic products. Apple did not flinch. There really is very little downside to having an all-out trade war with Turkey. There is danger with other countries; there is the danger of contagion.   The markets are not able to enjoy a Federal Reserve “put”. The Fed is actually tightening now, selling off its balance sheet and raising interest rates. Don’t count on a Powell Pause. That’s the message seasoned watchers of the Federal Reserve have for any investors hoping that turmoil in Turkey and the wider emerging-market selloff would stay the hand of Chairman Jerome Powell from raising interest rates. While international developments did cause the ...
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Financial ReviewBy Sinclair Noe