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A SCIENCE NOTE

“Supercells”—those powerful, rotating thunderstorms capable of spawning tornadoes, large hail, and extreme winds—are being intensified and shifted in behavior by the climate crisis. Here’s how:

Supercells form when warm, moist air near the surface rises and interacts with colder, drier air aloft. Global warming supercharges this by:

Increasing surface temperatures, which boosts convective available potential energy (CAPE)—a key ingredient in storm intensity.

Adding more moisture to the air (warmer air holds more water vapor), leading to explosive updrafts and more intense rainfall and hail.

Result: Supercells are forming in environments with higher energy, making them more intense and more dangerous.

While global warming tends to decrease upper-level wind shear on average, in many regions—especially the central and eastern U.S.—the contrast between warm, moist Gulf air and upper-level jets remains strong:

This supports rotating updrafts (mesocyclones), the key to supercell formation.

There’s growing evidence that supercells are becoming more efficient at producing tornadoes when these ingredients align.

Result: Supercell tornadoes may become more frequent, more severe, or more widespread under certain conditions.

Recent studies show that Tornado Alley is shifting eastward toward the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys, where population density is higher:

More supercells are forming in the Southeast U.S., which also has more trees and terrain that make tornadoes harder to see and warn against.

There’s also an observed increase in nighttime tornadoes, which are deadlier.

Result: Climate change is moving supercell risk into more vulnerable regions, increasing casualties and damage potential.

Supercells now frequently carry more moisture, resulting in:

Heavier downpours and higher risks of flash flooding.

Rain-wrapped tornadoes, where heavy precipitation hides the funnel—making visual spotting nearly impossible.

Result: Supercells are now often multi-hazard events, not just wind or hail, but flooding, debris flows, and compound disasters.

Some studies suggest climate change may increase the odds of training supercells—storms that form in lines and repeatedly hit the same areas:

This leads to cascading destruction: wind, hail, tornadoes, then flooding, all in one location.

There’s growing concern about “super outbreak” potential—like April 2011, but more frequent.

Result: Local infrastructure may be overwhelmed by repeated strikes, especially in the Midwest and South.

Some researchers argue supercells are becoming canaries in the coal mine for climate-driven atmospheric instability:

Their sensitivity to heat and moisture makes them early indicators of unstable new storm patterns.

Observing supercell shifts can help anticipate larger-scale climate feedbacks.