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Supply, Macro & Capital: Ontario's 2026 Setup
Ontario Housing Starts Surge—But It’s All Multifamily: CMHC Data, CIBC Forecast, Capital Shifts & New CMHC Benchmarks
Addy Saeed and mortgage agent Ribhu Rampersad unpack a data-heavy week covering CMHC April housing starts, CIBC’s provincial economic forecast, new CMHC supply modeling, and key policy/legal updates affecting Ontario multifamily. Ontario posted 6,680 starts in April (+25% YoY), driven entirely by multifamily (+32.8%) while single-detached fell (-18%); Toronto’s mix is overwhelmingly multi-unit, Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge spiked (855 starts, +235% YoY; +92% YTD), and Hamilton was volatile (27 starts, -86%). CIBC forecasts Ontario at 1% real GDP growth in 2026 with population down 0.7% YoY and renewal-driven consumption pressure, with a conditional 2027 rebound. They discuss development charge cuts, Canadian capital pulling back from US real estate, office conversion realities, a Pickering growth plan, contractor stress signals, an Alberta Court of Appeal decision allowing equity investors to trigger CCAA, and new CMHC underwriting benchmarks raising expenses and tightening insured multifamily financing starting June 8, 2026.
00:00 Welcome and Agenda
00:32 Three Big Themes
01:06 CMHC April Starts
02:14 Ontario Starts Breakdown
03:56 Pipeline Risks and Takeaways
05:30 CIBC Ontario Forecast
08:14 Macro Takeaways to Watch
09:27 CMHC Supply Elasticity Model
11:11 Policy Lag and Investor Thesis
13:15 Rapid Fire News Roundup
13:25 Development Charges Cut
14:31 Capital Leaving US Real Estate
15:21 Office to Residential Conversions
16:15 Pickering Growth Plan Risks
17:07 Contractor Stress and Holdbacks
18:04 Equity Investors Trigger CCAA
19:19 Connecting the Threads
21:12 Breaking CMHC Benchmark Update
22:39 Benchmark Impacts on Deals
23:55 Wrap Up and Disclosures
About Your Hosts:
Addy Saeed: With over 20 years of experience in the real estate industry, I've navigated through the complexities of property investment, development, and management. My goal is to demystify real estate investing for our listeners.
Web Links Skool Community: https://www.skool.com/learn-invest-ma...
Get access to all our tools at learninvestmanage.com
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By Westcliff Asset Management IncOntario Housing Starts Surge—But It’s All Multifamily: CMHC Data, CIBC Forecast, Capital Shifts & New CMHC Benchmarks
Addy Saeed and mortgage agent Ribhu Rampersad unpack a data-heavy week covering CMHC April housing starts, CIBC’s provincial economic forecast, new CMHC supply modeling, and key policy/legal updates affecting Ontario multifamily. Ontario posted 6,680 starts in April (+25% YoY), driven entirely by multifamily (+32.8%) while single-detached fell (-18%); Toronto’s mix is overwhelmingly multi-unit, Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge spiked (855 starts, +235% YoY; +92% YTD), and Hamilton was volatile (27 starts, -86%). CIBC forecasts Ontario at 1% real GDP growth in 2026 with population down 0.7% YoY and renewal-driven consumption pressure, with a conditional 2027 rebound. They discuss development charge cuts, Canadian capital pulling back from US real estate, office conversion realities, a Pickering growth plan, contractor stress signals, an Alberta Court of Appeal decision allowing equity investors to trigger CCAA, and new CMHC underwriting benchmarks raising expenses and tightening insured multifamily financing starting June 8, 2026.
00:00 Welcome and Agenda
00:32 Three Big Themes
01:06 CMHC April Starts
02:14 Ontario Starts Breakdown
03:56 Pipeline Risks and Takeaways
05:30 CIBC Ontario Forecast
08:14 Macro Takeaways to Watch
09:27 CMHC Supply Elasticity Model
11:11 Policy Lag and Investor Thesis
13:15 Rapid Fire News Roundup
13:25 Development Charges Cut
14:31 Capital Leaving US Real Estate
15:21 Office to Residential Conversions
16:15 Pickering Growth Plan Risks
17:07 Contractor Stress and Holdbacks
18:04 Equity Investors Trigger CCAA
19:19 Connecting the Threads
21:12 Breaking CMHC Benchmark Update
22:39 Benchmark Impacts on Deals
23:55 Wrap Up and Disclosures
About Your Hosts:
Addy Saeed: With over 20 years of experience in the real estate industry, I've navigated through the complexities of property investment, development, and management. My goal is to demystify real estate investing for our listeners.
Web Links Skool Community: https://www.skool.com/learn-invest-ma...
Get access to all our tools at learninvestmanage.com