Switched On

Copper could become the defining materials bottleneck of the energy transition. Demand is set to rise 60% by 2050, while declining ore quality and a lack of new mines threaten a significant supply gap. Can innovation and substitution ease the crunch, or will copper constrain the transition? On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by Martin Tengler, BloombergNEF’s head of metals mining, to discuss this year’s edition of the flagship “Transition Metals Outlook” report.

Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com

Links to research notes from this episode:

Transition Metals Outlook 2026 - https://www.bnef.com/flagships/transition-metals-outlook

Publicly available executive summary - https://about.bnef.com/insights/commodities/transition-metal-outlook/

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China is steering its data center boom toward where power is plentiful and cheaper. National computing hubs are concentrating large projects in areas where land, electricity and fiber can be planned together. As capacity more than doubles through 2030, power-intensive computing is increasingly shifting toward North and Northwest China, where electricity is cheaper and renewable supply is abundant. That differs from the more market-led development seen in places such as the US. Established Chinese markets including Shanghai and Beijing remain important for workloads that need to stay close to users. So how is access to power reshaping where China builds its next generation of data centers? On today’s show, Kamala Schelling is joined by BloombergNEF’s head of Asia research, Fauziah Marzuki, to discuss the note “China Data Center Market Prospects.”

Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com

Links to research notes from this episode:

China Data Center Market Prospects - https://www.bnef.com/insights/40341

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will enter his fourth term with an energy system transformed by electrification. The country’s rapid wind and solar growth has created a curtailment crisis, weighing on investment and increasing the need for greater grid flexibility and power-market reform. Meanwhile, surging EV sales are boosting local auto manufacturing while threatening future demand for Brazil’s huge biofuels industry. Policy continuity may not be enough to manage these pressures, particularly as the country’s clean-energy transition enters a more complicated phase. So, can Lula develop a new playbook for Brazil’s next wave of electrification? On today’s show, Kamala Schelling is joined by a senior associate from BloombergNEF’s Latin America team, Vinicius Nunes, to review findings from the analyst reaction “Brazil’s Clean-Energy Surge to Test Lula’s Next Term.”

Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com

Links to research notes from this episode:

Brazil’s Clean-Energy Surge to Test Lula’s Next Term - https://www.bnef.com/analyst-reactions/tnj4zpt96osh00

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Europe’s energy shocks have exposed the cost of energy dependence. The loss of Russian gas accelerated investment in renewables and liquefied natural gas, but high prices, infrastructure bottlenecks and new import dependencies remain. Greater electrification could improve resilience by making better use of domestic power and flexible technologies. But high costs still weigh on industry. So can Europe turn energy resilience into a competitive advantage?

At the BloombergNEF Summit London, Oliver Metcalfe, BNEF’s head of European research, moderated a panel titled “Reshaping Europe’s Strategic Future.” This episode brings listeners that panel, which featured BASF’s Matthias Dohrn, Octopus Energy Group’s Greg Jackson, JP Morgan’s Hannes Kofler, and SSE’s Deepa Venkateswaran.

Today’s episode was recorded live at the BNEF Summit London. To learn more about our Summits and to listen to more interviews, please visit https://about.bnef.com/summit/

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The economics of heating your home are shifting. Whether a heat pump saves money increasingly depends on what heats your home, where you live and when you use electricity. Heating oil prices have surged to a two-decade high in the US, EU and UK, dramatically improving the economics of switching for some households, while changes to electricity tariffs can make heat pumps cheaper to run. With fossil-fuel prices volatile and power systems changing, electric heating is becoming more competitive. So where do heat pumps now make financial sense, and what could make them more attractive? On today’s show, Kamala Schelling is joined by Yara van Ingen, an associate from BloombergNEF’s tech, industry & innovation team, to discuss some of her notes, including “Heating Oil Spike Opens Market for More Heat Pumps,” and “French Heat Pump Owners Gain From Cheaper Midday Power.”

Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com

Links to research notes from this episode:

Heating Oil Spike Opens Market for More Heat Pumps - https://www.bnef.com/shorts/tmxz2dt96osp00

French Heat Pump Owners Gain From Cheaper Midday Power - https://www.bnef.com/shorts/tmxxyvkk3nye00

Gas Price Spike Still Too Mild to Drive Heat Pump Surge - https://www.bnef.com/shorts/texo3ukk3ny900

Heat Pump Market Outlook 2026: Blip, Not Bust - https://www.bnef.com/insights/39389

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Gas turbines are a hot topic. Orders for this critical piece of infrastructure are surging alongside rising power demand and the need to refurbish aging power plants. Data centers are adding urgency, particularly in the US, and scarce delivery slots are pushing prices higher. Manufacturers are expanding production, but past overcapacity is keeping them cautious about chasing today’s demand too aggressively. So how long can the boom last? And can manufacturers capitalize on the gas turbine boom without overplaying their hand? On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by BNEF global gas specialist Atin Jain to discuss findings from some of his research, including “Global Gas Turbine Order Trends 1H 2026: Records Shattered” and “Global Gas Turbine Manufacturing Outlook: Crunch, for Now.”

Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com

Links to research notes from this episode:

Global Gas Turbine Order Trends 1H 2026: Records Shattered - https://www.bnef.com/insights/40519

US Data Center Gas Demand Outlook 2026-2035 - https://www.bnef.com/insights/40383

Global Gas Turbine Manufacturing Outlook: Crunch, for Now - https://www.bnef.com/insights/40247

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Europe’s power mix is changing fast. Ample output from wind, solar and nuclear means that northwest Europe could require significantly less power from fossil fuels this winter than last. At the same time, rising electricity demand from EVs and data centers is shifting market dynamics across Europe, creating new opportunities for technologies like solar and batteries. So how are Europe’s power markets evolving, and what does that mean for prices and investment? On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by Arhnue Tan from BNEF’s European power team to discuss findings from some of her team’s notes, including “European Power Monthly October 2026: Renewables Retreat,” “European Power Winter Outlook: Cleaner Mix,” and a series of outlooks covering individual power markets across Europe, which we’ve hyperlinked below.

Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com

Links to research notes from this episode:

European Power Monthly October 2026: Renewables Retreat - https://www.bnef.com/insights/40545

European Power Winter Outlook: Cleaner Mix - https://www.bnef.com/insights/40431

Germany Power Market Outlook 2026: Batteries Versus Gas - https://www.bnef.com/insights/40407

Italy Power Market Outlook 2026: Renewables Edge Out Gas - https://www.bnef.com/insights/40373

Nordic Power Markets: Demand Outlook - https://www.bnef.com/insights/39425

France Power Market Outlook 2026: Price High, Supply Ample - https://www.bnef.com/insights/39197

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The energy transition is reshaping how companies make money. BNEF’s new Transition Risk and Opportunities Outlook models revenues for more than 70,000 companies as demand shifts across energy, transport and commodities. Businesses exposed to renewables, grids, EVs and transition metals could benefit, while others may face shrinking markets and rising carbon costs. So which companies are positioned to capture new opportunities, and which are most exposed to the transition? On today’s show, Kamala Schelling is joined by BloombergNEF finance policy and transition risk specialist Maia Mesanger and transition risk and alignment analyst Estella Agyepong to discuss their note “Transition Risk and Opportunity Outlook 2026.”

Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com

Links to research notes from this episode:

Transition Risk and Opportunity Outlook 2026 - https://www.bnef.com/insights/40403

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Power plants have a water problem that’s getting harder to ignore. Coal, gas and nuclear facilities rely heavily on water for cooling, leaving some exposed as drought and heat intensify pressure on freshwater supplies. Wind and solar generation have a dramatically lower dependence on water, but thermal plants will remain critical to power systems, and many existing assets are located in areas facing growing water stress. That creates risks beyond individual generators. Water shortages can constrain power supply just as heat pushes electricity demand higher, potentially affecting prices and consumers across the system. So how vulnerable is the power sector to water stress, and can the energy transition reduce the risk? On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by BloombergNEF climate research analyst Alistair Purdie to discuss findings from his note “Thirst for Power: Water Stress in Electricity Generation.”

Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com

Links to research notes from this episode:

Thirst for Power: Water Stress in Electricity Generation - https://www.bnef.com/insights/40317

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Europe’s gas market is heading into winter with little room for error. Lower storage levels and disruption in the Middle East have left the region more exposed to weather and competition for LNG. BNEF’s base case sees European storage falling to 21% by the end of March, but a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption or a particularly cold winter could push it toward 10%. Much will depend on temperatures, renewable generation and LNG demand elsewhere, particularly in Asia. Longer term, new supply could loosen the global gas market, but BNEF expects that relief to arrive from 2028 onwards. So how tight could the gas market get this winter, and what could tip the balance? On today’s show, Tom Rowlands-Rees is joined by BloombergNEF European gas market analyst, Arham Muhammad, and weather team associate, Jess Hicks to discuss the notes “LNG Market Outlook 2035: Oversupply to Fuel Demand Growth” and “European Gas Market Outlook 2035.”

Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com

Links to research notes from this episode:

European Gas Winter Outlook 2026-2027 - https://www.bnef.com/insights/40331

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.