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Tacit Bargain: Energy Flows and the Iran Standoff
This week's edition dissects the fragile equilibrium in the Iran conflict, where a 'tacit bargain' over energy flows is preventing outright escalation – but at a rising cost. We explore how private credit, dwindling missile stockpiles, and a collapsing fertilizer supply chain are interconnected, creating a uniquely vulnerable global system.
Explore the full visual digest at pers-int.com
0:00 - Introduction
1:10 - Iran's Conflict & Geopolitical Power Plays
9:15 - The Strait of Hormuz & Global Oil Markets
16:51 - Private Credit, Emerging Markets & Commodity Risk
20:42 - Energy Transition, Fertilizer Supply & Food Security
24:03 - Conclusion
Referenced sources:
Falando de Mercado Asfalto venezuelano retorna ao mercado (Argus Media)
Fertilizer Matters EP44 Sustainable & Specialty Fertilizers Market (Argus Media)
Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Joumanna Bercetche and Julian Lee (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Bloomberg Surveillance TV March 16th, 2026 (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Trump's Demand for Hormuz Support Faces Resistance (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Instant Reaction Judge Rejects Subpoenas of Fed in Powell Case, DOJ to Appeal (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Ziad Daoud & Michael Nierenberg (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Bloomberg Surveillance TV March 13th, 2026 (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Trump Warns Iran of New Strikes, Private Credit Concerns (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Ed Morse & Audrey Childe-Freeman (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Bloomberg Surveillance TV March 12th, 2026 (Bloomberg Surveillance)
The Risks of a Prolonged Iran War (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Ryan Lovell - Chainlink The Infrastructure Pipes for Multi-Chain Finance (EP.491) (Capital Allocators – Inside the Institutional Investment Industry)
Iran Conflict Brief A 'Tacit Bargain' Protecting Gulf Energy (Columbia Energy Exchange)
Credit Crunch AGL's Comer on CLOs, Active Management and Growth (FICC Focus)
EM Lens War-Induced Oil Shocks Aren't Kind to EM Economies (FICC Focus)
Macro Matters Yield-Curve Scenarios with BNY's Granet (FICC Focus)
Credit Crunch Iran War, Software Rout and Credit a Safe Haven (FICC Focus)
MacroVoices #523 Jim Bianco Energy, FED & Economy in the wake of Iran conflict (Macro Voices)
War in Iran is Chewing Through American Missile Stockpiles (Odd Lots)
What War in Iran Means for China's Teapot Oil Refineries (Odd Lots)
War in Iran Is Creating a Fertilizer Crisis Like Never Before (Odd Lots)
Uncomfortable moments in private credit (Unhedged)
This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.
View all episodes
By Personalised IntelligenceThis week's edition dissects the fragile equilibrium in the Iran conflict, where a 'tacit bargain' over energy flows is preventing outright escalation – but at a rising cost. We explore how private credit, dwindling missile stockpiles, and a collapsing fertilizer supply chain are interconnected, creating a uniquely vulnerable global system.
Explore the full visual digest at pers-int.com
0:00 - Introduction
1:10 - Iran's Conflict & Geopolitical Power Plays
9:15 - The Strait of Hormuz & Global Oil Markets
16:51 - Private Credit, Emerging Markets & Commodity Risk
20:42 - Energy Transition, Fertilizer Supply & Food Security
24:03 - Conclusion
Referenced sources:
Falando de Mercado Asfalto venezuelano retorna ao mercado (Argus Media)
Fertilizer Matters EP44 Sustainable & Specialty Fertilizers Market (Argus Media)
Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Joumanna Bercetche and Julian Lee (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Bloomberg Surveillance TV March 16th, 2026 (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Trump's Demand for Hormuz Support Faces Resistance (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Instant Reaction Judge Rejects Subpoenas of Fed in Powell Case, DOJ to Appeal (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Ziad Daoud & Michael Nierenberg (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Bloomberg Surveillance TV March 13th, 2026 (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Trump Warns Iran of New Strikes, Private Credit Concerns (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Ed Morse & Audrey Childe-Freeman (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Bloomberg Surveillance TV March 12th, 2026 (Bloomberg Surveillance)
The Risks of a Prolonged Iran War (Bloomberg Surveillance)
Ryan Lovell - Chainlink The Infrastructure Pipes for Multi-Chain Finance (EP.491) (Capital Allocators – Inside the Institutional Investment Industry)
Iran Conflict Brief A 'Tacit Bargain' Protecting Gulf Energy (Columbia Energy Exchange)
Credit Crunch AGL's Comer on CLOs, Active Management and Growth (FICC Focus)
EM Lens War-Induced Oil Shocks Aren't Kind to EM Economies (FICC Focus)
Macro Matters Yield-Curve Scenarios with BNY's Granet (FICC Focus)
Credit Crunch Iran War, Software Rout and Credit a Safe Haven (FICC Focus)
MacroVoices #523 Jim Bianco Energy, FED & Economy in the wake of Iran conflict (Macro Voices)
War in Iran is Chewing Through American Missile Stockpiles (Odd Lots)
What War in Iran Means for China's Teapot Oil Refineries (Odd Lots)
War in Iran Is Creating a Fertilizer Crisis Like Never Before (Odd Lots)
Uncomfortable moments in private credit (Unhedged)
This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.