Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1067.

Hey everybody, it's your pal Wally Pip here, and welcome to Spy Trader! It's 6 am on Thursday, April 3rd, 2025, and things are looking a little dicey this morning. Futures are down across the board after President Trump slapped some new tariffs on pretty much everyone. What did the ATM say to the bank card? "You're always withdrawing from our relationship."

So, let's dive into the headlines. US stock futures are signaling a rough open, all thanks to Trump's newly announced 'Liberation Day' tariffs. He's hitting US imports with a blanket 10% duty starting April 5th, and then countryspecific tariffs kick in from April 9th. The Dow futures are down about 0.5%, the S&P 500 futures are off by 0.7%, and Nasdaq 100 futures have dropped 0.9%. Ouch!

We saw the Dow and S&P 500 rise yesterday, but those gains were wiped out in extended trading after the tariff news. The S&P 500 had its worst month since 2022 in March, and this isn't helping. The tech sector is getting hammered, especially companies with big US exposure. Pharma stocks, on the other hand, are looking pretty good. In other news, RH shares tanked after missing estimates, blaming tariff uncertainty. And Altria Group, that's MO, got downgraded by Deutsche Bank because of valuation concerns, dropping 2.8%.

What's driving this? Well, these tariffs are expected to reduce consumer spending and hurt economic growth. Comerica Bank is already revising its 2025 GDP forecast down to 1.7% from 2.5%. We also saw the goods and services deficit shrink a bit in February, but inflation concerns are rising because of the tariffs. The 10year Treasury yield has fallen to 4.13%, showing increased economic anxiety.

So, what should you do? Given all this uncertainty, I'd suggest diversifying your investments across different asset classes. Consider focusing on defensive sectors like pharmaceuticals and consumer staples. Keep a close eye on those trade developments. With tech facing headwinds, maybe look at value stocks with strong fundamentals. Stay informed on GDP, inflation, and interest rates. And most importantly, reassess your risk tolerance.

Piper Sandler is still down on Hershey, citing pricing pressure. Plus, we've got a bunch of earnings reports coming up, including ConAgra Brands, Walgreens Boots Alliance, and Lamb Weston Holdings. Big tech earnings are right around the corner with Netflix on April 22nd, followed by Tesla, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Apple all reporting soon after that.

Morningstar's Preston Caldwell thinks the recession risk has climbed to at least onethird because of these tariffs. They're planning to reduce GDP growth forecasts for the next couple of years. Economists pretty much agree that tariffs will hurt US and global growth while boosting inflation.

Remember, this is just my take on things, not financial advice. Do your own research and talk to a professional before making any big moves. Stay safe out there, and I'll catch you on the next Spy Trader!