Taylor Made Macro

Market beatings will continue until the war ends. I discuss why I think markets can no longer avoid the war or the inflation it is causing.

Pinecone Macro Research aims to provide unique, well researched analysis of the global markets using a macro framework. Find us here: www.pineconemacro.com

Follow us and the show on Twitter: @PineconeMacro & @TaylorMadeMacro

Subscribe on Substack: https://substack.com/@pineconemacroresearch

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Bulwark Capital Management: https://bulwarkcapitalmgmt.com/

Disclaimer:

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The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Catching you up on the war in Iran as it goes kinetic again and what that means for energy prices and macro.

Pinecone Macro Research aims to provide unique, well researched analysis of the global markets using a macro framework. Find us here: www.pineconemacro.com

Follow us and the show on Twitter: @PineconeMacro & @TaylorMadeMacro

Subscribe on Substack: https://substack.com/@pineconemacroresearch

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Bulwark Capital Management: https://bulwarkcapitalmgmt.com/

Disclaimer:

--

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

A review of the week with a focus on the Fed and the Treasury as they row in different directions.

Pinecone Macro Research aims to provide unique, well researched analysis of the global markets using a macro framework. Find us here: www.pineconemacro.com

Follow us and the show on Twitter: @PineconeMacro & @TaylorMadeMacro

Subscribe on Substack: https://substack.com/@pineconemacroresearch

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Bulwark Capital Management: https://bulwarkcapitalmgmt.com/

Disclaimer:

--

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

Yesterday I said Treasury would need a bigger boat and compared buybacks to the Cheeto as a door lock - today (faster than expected!) that became clear. So I cover the buyback fail and the need for QE, the economic war against Iran, the China/Switzerland trade deal, Walmart earnings, and more supply coming thanks to the giant Anthropic IPO.

Pinecone Macro Research aims to provide unique, well researched analysis of the global markets using a macro framework. Find us here: www.pineconemacro.com

Follow us and the show on Twitter: @PineconeMacro & @TaylorMadeMacro

Subscribe on Substack: https://substack.com/@pineconemacroresearch

--

Bulwark Capital Management: https://bulwarkcapitalmgmt.com/

Disclaimer:

--

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

First Daily Discernment discussing the Treasury's intervention today and everything it may mean moving forward.

Pinecone Macro Research aims to provide unique, well researched analysis of the global markets using a macro framework. Find us here: www.pineconemacro.com

Follow us and the show on Twitter: @PineconeMacro & @TaylorMadeMacro

Subscribe on Substack: https://substack.com/@pineconemacroresearch

--

Bulwark Capital Management: https://bulwarkcapitalmgmt.com/

Disclaimer:

--

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

No one enjoys being wrong. But I do enjoy having been wrong. This means I am now less wrong, now than I was before. This means I have learned something.

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Chase sits down with book in hand to discuss some of the great insights in Soul in the Game: The Art of a Meaningful Life by Vitaliy Katsenelson. Consider this your audio CliffsNotes with anecdotes from the author and from Chase’s experiences with stoicism, challenging your own market theses, and why we should treat everything in our life as if it’s on borrowed time.

Timestamps:

(00:01) – Intro

(01:44) – Put curiosity above conviction and humility above pride

(03:47) – No one enjoys being wrong, but…do enjoy having been wrong

(05:58) – The rules of an intellectually honest debate

(07:56) – Acknowledge our assumptions, acknowledge our own biases. Address the argument, don’t attack the person

(10:56) – Pain is a perfect tuner

(14:16) – Time discovers truth

(15:55) – Accept that our control only lies within

(21:45) – Negative visualization helps you realize all the great things in your life are borrowed, not owned  

(24:00) – Outro  

Referenced in the Show:

• Soul in the Game by Vitaliy Katsenelson
• Think Again by Adam Grant
• Chase’s favorite Daniel Kahneman book:  Thinking, Fast and Slow
• Brothers Karamazov: by Fyodor Dostoevsky
• The Intelligent Investor: Ben Graham
• Stoic Books: The Wisdom of the Stoics Boxed Set & Discipline Is Destiny: The Power
• of Self-Control

Pinecone Macro Research aims to provide unique, well researched analysis of the global markets using a macro framework. Find us here: www.pineconemacro.com

Follow us and the show on Twitter: @PineconeMacro & @TaylorMadeMacro

Subscribe on Substack: https://substack.com/@pineconemacroresearch

--

Bulwark Capital Management: https://bulwarkcapitalmgmt.com/

Disclaimer:

--

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

"You have to, create your own library of Alexandria. And the great thing is you can do it topic by topic. Someone sends you a book recommendation? Great. Buy it on Kindle, stick it in the Notebook [LM], right? You'll get there eventually, but it's part of your searchable database from today because, I've taken it on recommendation from someone I trust."

-Rupert Mitchell, Blind Squirrel Macro

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This week, Chase interviews his brain doppelgänger and good friend, Rupert Mitchell, of Blind Squirrel Macro. Rupert began his finance career on the sell side of Investment Banking (pick one, he worked there) and also ran the equity syndicate desk in Hong Kong. Rupert began Blind Squirrel Macro as a way to connect with people about investing. His apt tag line is “Macro for Civilians” and this conversation stays on brand. Enjoy all of Rupert’s thoughts on space, his thankfulness for the power of a targeted ETF, and most importantly, how to approach A.I. agnostically. We must have Rupert back, because we barely scratched the surface in this episode!

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Timestamps:

(00:01) – Intro

(04:03) – Why Rupert loves the market

(06:52) – How Rupert structures his trade ideas

(12:19) – ETF providers need some love

(14:37) – Early wins can be dangerous

(16:46) – Living in Australia gives you an edge  

(23:40) – Will there ever be a Bloomberg [terminal] killer?

(26:53) – Oil

(29:56) – Rupert is the new champion for the old book question

(35:10) – A.I. can’t strip us of beautifully written words

(37:37) – It’s inevitable that you get trades right for the wrong reasons

(40:08) – Be Agnostic about A.I.

(46:17) – How Rupert collects dots

(55:42) – Plugs

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This Episode's Charity:

This week’s episode features causes close to Rupert’s heart: Guide Dogs Australia & Search and Rescue Dogs of Australia. Unfortunately, Rupert didn’t slip once, so we couldn’t help the best of Australia’s dog professionals. But you can by checking out these great charities!

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Referenced in the Show:

So many ETFS: Simplify’s TUA & PFIX, Range’s NUKZ & LNGZ, Cathie Wood’s Space ETF, & Procure’s UFO

AI Tools for an informational edge: Harkster, NotebookLM, & FinChat

Other great Podcasts/Radio: Commodity Context & Desert Island Discs

Books: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Dostoyevsky's The Gambler, Annie Duke’s Thinking in Bets & Doyle Brunson’s Super System

Myers-Briggs Personality Type Test: 16Personalities

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Guest Plugs:

Rupert’s X : @SquirrelMacro

Rupert’s Substack: blindsquirrelmacro.com

Rupert’s Podcast: Blind Squirrel Macro - The Pod

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Pinecone Macro Research aims to provide unique, well researched analysis of the global markets using a macro framework. Find us here: www.pineconemacro.com

Follow us and the show on Twitter: @PineconeMacro & @TaylorMadeMacro

Subscribe on Substack: https://substack.com/@pineconemacroresearch

--

Bulwark Capital Management: https://bulwarkcapitalmgmt.com/

Disclaimer:

--

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

“So, geopolitics really is more about defining possibilities and getting ready for any possibility so that if the crazy thing happens, ah, I've thought about it before. And I know what I'm going to do when that happens, rather than I'm going to perfectly be able to identify the scenario.” - Jacob Shapiro, Cognitive Investments

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This week’s episode features a future regular guest of Taylor Made Macro, Jacob Shapiro, from Cognitive Investments. Jacob is a true neutral geopolitical analyst that approaches the world and the markets with humility and back-breaking labor to arrive at his conclusions. Chase and Jacob discuss current events in global elections, the importance of finding original news sources, paying attention to news that seems strange, and implementing a ranking system for the avalanche of information one needs to get through to do this work each day. This helps you with the most important takeaway of the episode: scenario planning. Thinking about what could happen helps you prepare if it does happen.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) – Intro

(01:38) – Charity: William and Anne Monroe Shapiro Endowment

(02:16) – Mexican Elections: Shienbaum is a Scientist

(08:13) – Modi’s Age and Charisma Have Their Limits

(11:29) – South Africa’s Apartheid History Overshadows the Geopolitical Potential

(14:39) – Individual Leaders Can Have a Great Amount of Agency in the Right Moment, with the Right Circumstances

(17:54) – Milei’s Economic Changes Could be Trading Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Meaningful Change

(25:23) – Mexican, Brazilian, and Saudi Arabian ETFs Are (as of recording) Mispriced.

(27:16) – Between Two Pines

(32:43) – Scenario Imagination and Admitting You’re Wrong are too Important When Money is on the Line

(36:32) – Google Translate Your Way to More Accurate, Ground-level News, and Dissect the Piece of Info that Seems Strange

(44:04) – Spanx vs. High Nutritional Reading

(46:07) – Jacob’s Books: All the King's Men by Robert Penn Warren & Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by Richards Heuer [Jr.]

(47:14) – Notion Helps Organize Information

(51:44) – Finding the Original is the Most Important Task

(53:37) – High Level Meeting Summaries: Pay Attention to Divergence

(56:10) – Don’t Put on a Trade Unless You Can Get to Confidence

(58:40) – Geopolitical Analysis is not a Hard Science

(1:02:14) – Swim to Connect Dots

(1:03:10) – Half-Holocaust Survivors / Half D.C. Socialites – Bridging the Various Classes Perspectives for Better Political Analysis

(1:06:36) - Plugs

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This Episode's Charity:

In honor of Jacob’s parents, an endowment for First Generation American citizens has been established at Oxford College of Emory University. Please donate here.

Jacob and Chase raised $20 for charity this week!

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Referenced in the Show:

Cognitive Dissidents (Soon The Jacob Shapiro Podcast): Depreciable Line of Information

Movie: Three Days of the Condor

Jacob's Book Recommendations: All the King's Men by Robert Penn Warren & Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by Richards Heuer [Jr.]

Speechify & Perplexity

Book 3: The Tao Jones Averages

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Guest Plugs:

Jacob’s X : https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob’s Work : Cognitive.Investments

Podcast : Cognitive Dissidents

Jacob’s Website : jacobshapiro.com

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Pinecone Macro Research aims to provide unique, well researched analysis of the global markets using a macro framework. Find us here: www.pineconemacro.com

Follow us and the show on Twitter: @PineconeMacro & @TaylorMadeMacro

Subscribe on Substack: https://substack.com/@pineconemacroresearch

--

Bulwark Capital Management: https://bulwarkcapitalmgmt.com/

Disclaimer:

--

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

“I can generally, take an issue and argue both sides...ultimately you've got to weigh all the evidence and be honest with yourself and come up with the right answer… the ability to take an issue, see both sides, argue both sides, build a case for both sides…and that causes you to just dig and read and turn over stones and understand underlying processes and things like that.” - Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research

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This episode features Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research. Chase and Warren dig deep into construction data, Warren’s process, models, and why he finds construction so important for macro. Warren teaches us how to research trades like a lawyer, but also how important saying, “I don’t know” is for your credibility…unless you’re at a cocktail party. He argues that sticking to what you know and picking high quality businesses will keep you alive in the markets. We also learned that Gothic Western Fiction is an actual genre (!?). Enjoy this meeting of the minds and learn how to balance granularity with accuracy.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) – Intro & Plugs

(01:20) – Warren’s Charity: BridgeALife

(02:57) – Warren’s Framework on Housing, Construction, and Construction Employment

(16:07) – Argue Both Sides of a Trade Like a Lawyer

(18:49) – A Behavioral Edge Creates an Informational Edge

(19:37) – Preempt a Bad Trade Through Research and Process

(21:26) – Learn How To Say, “I Don’t Know” Unless You’re at a Cocktail Party

(23:59) – Stick to Investing in What You Know & Pick Quality Businesses

(27:45) –Speed Read Until AI Can Do it For You

(31:13)— Exercise Your Nervous System to Help Connect the Dots

(33:36) – Having to Rescind a Prediction Made Publicly is Tough

(38:45) – Blood Meridian – Gothic Western Fiction??

(42:22) – Understanding Modern Money – A transformation for Warren

(42:34) – Between Two Pines

(47:48) – Are Higher Rates Stimulative?

(50:52) – Self-Reinforcing Loops to the Downside

(55:01) – Malinvestment in the 2020s

(56:39) – Yellowstone is “Too Popcorn”

(59:40) – Thank You Listeners

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This Episode's Charity:

Bridge A Life Charity – Local group in Sarasota Area, Florida that provides resources to foster families.

Donate here: https://www.bridgealife.com/get-involved/donate-2021

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Referenced in the Show:

1.  Warren’s Market Huddle Interview
2. Books:  Blood Meridian by Cormac McCarthy  & Understanding Modern Money: The Key to Full Employment and Price Stability by Randall Wray
3. David Einhorn – The Long and Short of Investing
4. Warren Mosler – This Guy Says the Fed Has Got Everything Precisely Backward, 2022, NYT Article

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Guest Plugs:

Warren’s X : https://twitter.com/WarrenPies

3Fourteen Research: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/

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Pinecone Macro Research aims to provide unique, well researched analysis of the global markets using a macro framework. Find us here: www.pineconemacro.com

Follow us and the show on Twitter: @PineconeMacro & @TaylorMadeMacro

Subscribe on Substack: https://substack.com/@pineconemacroresearch

--

Bulwark Capital Management: https://bulwarkcapitalmgmt.com/

Disclaimer:

--

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

“But I'm buying stuff where, revenue’s growing rapidly. I'm buying stuff where value creation is happening rapidly. I'm buying, you know, growth momentum names. I’m buying them before anyone else realizes that they’re growth momentum names...they're still valued like uh, value stocks. If you look at this sort of stuff we're doing, we call it--, I call it inflection investing for lack of a better word, but they tend to be industries that have destroyed a lot of capital that have bored people to death, that give people PTSD.” -Kuppy, Praetorian Capital

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Kuppy has been a great friend to Chase since he started PMR. This week they discuss position sizing, what inflection investing really means, how to spot the convergence of cyclical and secular tailwinds, and most importantly, how getting away from the markets allows you to express your trades more effectively. Kuppy's approach to investing is bold, well researched, and decisive. We also discussed how he decided to stop missing stuff with the inception of Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM).

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:46) – Kuppy is a value investor that makes money

(02:58) – Charity of Choice: Sugar Pine Foundation

(04:09) – Roman History isn’t a real major  

(06:03) – Inflection investing is momentum investing with a value overlay

(09:28) – Middleman companies provide the best value?

(09:46) – Cyclical sectors with secular change

(12:02) – Find ways to be out of the office

(12:46) – Kuppy makes the chart

(12:55) – Fundamental Momentum

(13:42) – Exit criteria: When something better comes along

(15:40) – Sizing of trades: There’s not enough good ideas to trade small positions

(19:54) – Get away from granularity unless it’s earnings season

(24:42) – Massive events still take weeks to figure out

(26:25) – Surfing – no phones allowed

(28:20) – Good food and good weather for good living

(29:13) – Being wrong isn’t personal. Get out before you change your mind

(31:39) – Between Two Pines

(35:21) – Sidestep the politics and sales pitches of corporate management leadership

(40:45) – KEDM – Kuppy got tired of missing stuff

(46:16) – Tomorrow’s Gold by Marc Faber & Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre and Roger Lowenstein

(47:00) – Sleepwalking into YCC

(48:04) – Kuppy reaches out the finance circle for “smell tests”

(49:23) – Luck in trades because of long timeline horizons

(51:46) – Plugs

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This Episode's Charity:

The Sugar Pine Foundation began in 2004.They are dedicated to restoring sugar pines in the Lake Tahoe National Forest in California.

Donate here: https://sugarpinefoundation.org/get-involved/donate

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Referenced in the Show:

Kuppy’s Book Recommendations: Tomorrow’s Gold by Marc Faber &

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre and Roger Lowenstein

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Guest Plugs:

Kuppy’s X : https://twitter.com/hkuppy

Praetorian Capital : https://pracap.com/

Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM) : https://kedm.com/

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Pinecone Macro Research aims to provide unique, well researched analysis of the global markets using a macro framework. Find us here: www.pineconemacro.com

Follow us and the show on Twitter: @PineconeMacro & @TaylorMadeMacro

Subscribe on Substack: https://substack.com/@pineconemacroresearch

--

Bulwark Capital Management: https://bulwarkcapitalmgmt.com/

Disclaimer:

--

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor