The Retirement Learning Lab

Tesla Stock Analysis: 3 Major Problems Crushing TSLA + Fair Value $250 vs Current ~$294


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Tesla shares are under serious pressure, and in this episode, I break down exactly why. As a chartered financial consultant, I've analyzed Tesla's fundamentals and identified three critical problems that every investor needs to understand.

What We Cover:

  • Why the EV tax credit elimination is bigger than most realize
  • Tesla's declining delivery numbers and market saturation signals
  • Leadership distraction concerns and their impact on execution
  • Complete SEC analysis: Stability, Earnings, and Competitiveness
  • Robotaxi reality check - separating timeline hype from facts
  • Bulls vs Bears perspectives on Tesla's future
  • Clear recommendations for current holders and potential buyers

Key Insights: Current Price: ~$294 | Fair Value Estimate: $250 | Assessment: 20% Overvalued

Tesla's operating margins have compressed from 17% to 7.4%, deliveries are down 13% year-to-date, and the company faces significant regulatory headwinds. While Tesla remains financially strong with $37B in cash, the easy growth years appear to be behind them.

My Take: Tesla is still a good company, but it's no longer the growth stock it once was. Current shareholders should evaluate position sizing, while potential buyers should wait for a better entry point around $200-220.

Looking Ahead: Tesla reports earnings July 23rd - I'll be watching for updates on affordable vehicle timelines, realistic robotaxi commercialization plans, and strategies to offset the EV tax credit impact.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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The Retirement Learning LabBy Van Richards, ChFC®, RICP®

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