This episode of The 100 Year Thinkers brings together Robert Hagstrom, Chris Mayer, and Bogumil Baranowski for a deep conversation on what makes a great business, why long-term investing is so hard, and how the world’s best investors think about mistakes, management, conviction, and the durability of competitive advantages. We explore perfect businesses, the pain of missed opportunities, the behavioral traps that derail long-term compounding, and how to navigate rapid technological change while keeping your investment process grounded.

Topics covered:
• What defines a perfect business and why so few qualify
• The role of capital efficiency, returns on capital, and cash generation
• Why omissions are often investors’ most painful mistakes
• How to build conviction to hold great companies through drawdowns
• The behavioral edge of true long-term investing
• Management quality, insider ownership, incentives, and red flags
• Why owner earnings and free cash flow matter more than GAAP earnings
• The challenge of evaluating fast-changing industries and staying within your circle of competence
• How AI, networks, and scale economics reshape competitive moats
• Portfolio management lessons, starter positions, and letting winners run

Timestamps:
00:00 Perfect businesses and long-term economics
01:49 Defining the perfect stock
03:27 Holding long term through volatility
07:30 Behavioral inefficiencies and market structure
09:15 Humanizing mistakes and decision making
14:28 Errors of omission and painful missed opportunities
19:00 What to look for in management
24:27 Signals from financial disclosures and actions
26:00 Key quantitative metrics for long-term compounders
34:04 Owner earnings vs GAAP earnings
37:00 Intangible investment and modern cash flow analysis
38:50 Circle of competence and fast-changing industries
42:00 Large language models, networks, and moats
43:52 AI use cases and productivity
45:00 Closing thoughts and where to find the guests
46:25 Episode recap and takeaways

In a world that moves tick by tick and quarter by quarter, The 100-Year Thinkers zooms out to explore what it really means to invest with patience, discipline, and perspective.

In this premiere episode, join Matt Zeigler, Bogumil Baranowski, Chris Mayer, and Robert Hagstrom as they discuss market concentration, the dominance of mega-cap stocks, and how investors can think in decades—not days.

Together, they explore the evolution of active management, the role of the S&P 500, the challenge of private equity, and how to build portfolios that last.

• Concentration and the rise of mega-cap dominance
• Equal-weight vs. market-cap-weighted indexes
• The role of the S&P 500 and how it shapes investor behavior
• Why the Magnificent Seven may not repeat past winners’ mistakes
• The differences between today’s tech leaders and the 1999 bubble
• The changing nature of private equity and illiquidity premiums
• How to define success as an investor beyond beating the index
• The importance of focusing on business economics over stock prices
• Lessons from Buffett, Bill Miller, and other long-term thinkers

00:00 Concentration and portfolio construction
04:00 Market-cap dominance and equal vs. cap weighting
10:30 Active management, benchmarks, and the S&P 500
17:00 Economic realities of the top 10 stocks
23:00 Government policy and market intervention
26:00 Comparing 2024 to 1999 and lessons from past cycles
32:00 Innovation, Russell 2000, and private company growth
40:00 Active management and how the S&P wins
41:45 The private equity boom and its challenges
49:00 Redefining performance and investor goals
55:00 The importance of focusing on business economics
57:00 Closing thoughts and where to find the guests

Topics CoveredTimestamps