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The 2020 Election Analytics Redux: If you build on sand, it’s your fault when the building shakes
The Measurement Minute by Gary Angel
Every now and again the Measurement Minute goes off topic and what better time than after an election. Professional analysts get their own election postmortems these days, and lots of folks have been piling on Nate Silver’s 538. They got the same treatment for wrongly predicting Clinton a 70/30 likely winner in 2016 as they did for rightly predicting a Biden victory (90/10 likelihood) in 2020. That 2016 criticism was wrong and unfair. But in 2020? Not so much. The Measurement Minute considers whether polling is really accurate enough to support the uses Silver and his team are putting it to and based on 2020 at least, the answer is probably not.
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By Gary Angel
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The Measurement Minute by Gary Angel
Every now and again the Measurement Minute goes off topic and what better time than after an election. Professional analysts get their own election postmortems these days, and lots of folks have been piling on Nate Silver’s 538. They got the same treatment for wrongly predicting Clinton a 70/30 likely winner in 2016 as they did for rightly predicting a Biden victory (90/10 likelihood) in 2020. That 2016 criticism was wrong and unfair. But in 2020? Not so much. The Measurement Minute considers whether polling is really accurate enough to support the uses Silver and his team are putting it to and based on 2020 at least, the answer is probably not.