In this week’s Insight’s we begin a 3 part series for 2026, splitting sections into Macro (this week), Micro/themes (next week) and asset allocation for 2026 vs a generic model (a week after that).

We see the macro picture in 2026 split into two. The Trump administration is way behind in the poles and needs a booming economy heading into the mid-term elections in November. The Fed gets a new head in May and by then we’ll have 5 of 7 rate setting committee members as Trump appointees. What follows next is the direct impact of these actions.

Monetary & Fiscal policy are likely to become even more accommodative to the point where the real interest rate yield in the US may even slip into negative territory leading to a weak USD and ultimately higher inflation in H2.

There’s likely to be a steepening of the US yield curve as the Fed over extends on the short-end whilst investors, fearing inflation push the long end higher, commonly known as a Bear Steepener.

Globally, the Japanese Yen may well be the best performing currency as the Central Bank continues its upward move in rates. Europe has little growth, no further rate cuts and a stable currency whilst the UK may face currency weakness if fiscal deficits continue ballooning.

Emerging markets and commodities ex Oil continue to boom. Gold accelerates on lower rates and threat of inflation.

Always do your own research or seek the advice of your professional financial advisor.

You can find us on LinkedIn and YouTube, Money Matters, Ben Hakham CEO at Traderoutes Capital.