In this episode of Dazi’s AI Cycle Watch, we continue the logic from Episode 016.

The main episode explained the AI crowding-out effect: upstream bottlenecks are gaining pricing power. This follow-up asks what happens downstream. As AI data centers absorb memory, advanced nodes, packaging capacity, and high-end materials, will AI PCs and AI smartphones immediately become profit machines?

Not necessarily.

Edge AI is a real long-term trend, but the first stage may be painful for device makers. BOM costs rise first, while consumer willingness to pay for AI features still needs to be proven. The key variables are ASP, gross margin, service revenue, replacement cycles, and inventory.

The winners will not be every company that adds “AI” to its product name. They will be the ones with pricing power, ecosystem lock-in, service monetization, and supply chain control.

Price is only the result. Variables define the stage.

We don’t predict prices. We observe the cycle.