The Approach Angle

The Approach Angle  

Nate Schwartz (@_nateschwartz) and Kyle Bland (@blandalytics) discuss plate discipline stats for pitchers.

The episode starts by talking about zone rate and chase rate, as Kyle explains that throwing pitches in the strike zone doesn't directly correlate with success for pitchers. However, they get into why pitches out of the zone can succeed, and how chases are generated. Then, they move into contact and whiff rates, breaking down what happens when a hitter decides to swing the bat. The two emphasize how location drives so much of the whiff, even though many people think it's more about stuff. Kyle also explains his preference for swinging strike rate compared to whiff rate, and what the differences are between the two stats. Finally, they talk about called strikes + whiffs (CSW%) and putaway rate -- two stats that have overarching value across the suite of plate discipline stats.

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The Approach Angle

Nate Schwartz (@_nateschwartz) and Kyle Bland (@blandalytics) discuss pitch tunnels and their impact on arsenal construction.

The podcast starts by talking about what a pitch tunnel is and why it can be effective against all types of hitters (including Jordan Walker, who Nate has to give a mention to after the Home Run Derby win). They talk about how release points and movement can confuse a hitter in terms of pitch recognition and affect their decision window when it comes to making a swing. Then, they talk about all of the different ways that the public has attempted to quantify tunneling. The next segment discusses arsenal construction -- like what makes pitches good tunnel partners and how bridge pitches can be effective. Additionally, they talk about why it can be useful to have pitches that don't tunnel with one another. Finally, they close with players that have interesting tunnels & mixes: Davis Martin, Bryan Woo, Nolan McLean, and Paul Skenes.

Articles mentioned: The Importance of Release Point Consistency, Daniel Schwartz; Introducing Pitch Tunnels, Baseball Prospectus; 
Quantifying Arsenal Effects: A New Paradigm in Pitching Models, Driveline Baseball; The Science of Pitch Tunneling, Maxwell Resnick; Introducing BP's New Arsenal Metrics, Stephen Sutton-Brown

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The Approach Angle

Nate Schwartz (@_nateschwartz) and Kyle Bland (@blandalytics) talk about the numbers and ideas behind pitch models.

The discussion begins by talking about what "stuff" actually is. What does it mean when a scout says a pitcher has great stuff, and how does that get valued? Kyle lays out the pitch characteristics and other factors that go into stuff. Then, they talk about if Stuff models actually do what people want them to do, and what the gaps in the thinking are. Next, the two get into how Stuff models are built. There are different philosophies and concepts that can change how the final output looks, but some inputs are consistent across almost all models. Finally, the discussion shifts into how to use Stuff models and actually understand what the numbers mean for different types of pitchers.

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The Approach Angle

Nate Schwartz (@_nateschwartz) and Kyle Bland (@blandalytics) talk about the new miss distance and other bat tracking stats.

There are new leaderboards on Baseball Savant! They talk about what all of these new numbers mean and what they're actually calculating. There's miss distance, the distance between bat and ball on a whiff, and there are dimensions to where to bat is in relation to the ball. Is the ball in on the hands of the bat or off the end? Is the bat on time or late? And is the bat over or under the ball? Then, they talk about what they know so far, with differences in certain pitch types and counts leading to different results. The two discuss how they look at new data, getting into what they look for and how they learn. Finally, Kyle talks about where he wants to see these new numbers go and how they can potentially be implemented going forward.

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The Approach Angle

Nate Schwartz (@_nateschwartz) and Kyle Bland (@blandalytics) are joined by Alex Chamberlain to talk approach angles and pitch movement.

This week, Nate and Kyle hop into the world of pitch movement, and Alex Chamberlain joins the discussion as one of the key researchers on approach angles. They start with the foundation of pitch movement—what causes movement, how pitches move, and the topline concepts of movement. They transition to discussing the required context for all pitch movement numbers. This revolves around arm angle and other physical characteristics, such as extension and release point, which explain why the fastball deadzone is actually dynamic. Finally, the group talks approach angles, as they explain vertical approach angle and horizontal approach angle. Vertical approach angle is powerful in understanding fastball performance, and both approach angles are most effective on the edges of the strike zone.

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The Approach Angle

Nate Schwartz (@_nateschwartz) and Kyle Bland (@blandalytics) talk about four hitters who are doing something new.

After spending the last couple of weeks building up the analytical toolkit on the hitting side, the two investigate hitters who are doing something new—for better or worse. They start with Gunnar Henderson's struggles, looking at how his swing has changed from past years and the effect that has on his decision-making. Then, they look at Munetaka Murakami's breakout season and talk about how his approach is sustainable despite an exceptionally high whiff rate. After that, they take a stab at why Fernando Tatis Jr. has no home runs and project what he'll look like for the rest of the season and beyond. Finally, they evaluate Jordan Walker's breakout season, and why a bunch of small changes are going a long way.

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The Approach Angle

Nate Schwartz (@_nateschwartz) and Kyle Bland (@blandalytics) about ERA estimators and how to apply them.

The discussion starts by talking about why ERA needs to be estimated. There are so many factors that go into run prevention that make it hard to value a pitcher just on ERA. They first dive into FIP, breaking down why it makes sense to remove balls in play from the equation entirely. This starts the focus on strikeouts and walks as the main identifer across the board. The chat moves to xFIP, which adjusts for league-average home run rate. Next, the two talk about SIERA, and how it's complex compared to the others and is the most predictive. After covering the main ERA estimators, they shift to how xERA is powered by Statcast data, but that doesn't make it more predictive. Finally, they wrap up by mentioning PLA, Pitcher List's scaled stat for pitch level value (PLV) and the players that stand out across these estimators.

Articles discussed: The Relative Value of FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and xERA Pt. II, Dan Richards; pFIP: Pitch Height, Launch Angle, and the FIP Framework, Alex Chamberlain; Predictive Classified Run Average, Connor Kurcon; What is PLV?, Nick Pollack

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The Approach Angle

Nate Schwartz (@_nateschwartz) and Kyle Bland (@blandalytics) break down swing rates and contact rates for hitters.

The discussion starts with how ABS has changed parts of how we value plate discipline, and how good discipline can play into challenges. They dive into swing rates: they start with how overall swing rate doesn't necessarily mean anything on its own, but can show outlier trends. Breaking it out into zone swing and out-of-zone swing (chase rate), they mention chase rate's importance because no good outcome can come from a chase swing. They move into contact rates, focusing on the importance of zone contact. Overall, they note how important it is that swings in the zone still struggle to create run value, emphasizing decision-making relative to contact ability. Finally, they close by talking about Pitcher List's decision value and contact ability, and what goes into those stats.

Articles discussed: Quantifying the Corey Seager Approach, Robert Orr; The Westburg Paradox, Tanner McGrath; Chasers Gonna Chase, but Where?, Davy Andrews; Heart of the Zone Value Tweet, Kyle Bland; STIO Tweet, Kyle Bland

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The Approach Angle

Nate Schwartz (@_nateschwartz) and Kyle Bland (@blandalytics) talk about different versions of game score.

They start by talking about the theory behind the original game score, which was created by Bill James. That leads to the second version of game score, developed by Tom Tango, where the two talk about the philosophical differences in what a game score is meant to capture. Then they talk about how Kyle went about creating his version of the game score and what he wanted to get out of it. They extensively discuss the crowd-sourced rankings and how it applies to the letter grades with the pitch cards. Finally, they conclude with ideas for stats to include in a "start watchability" index.

Articles discussed: Game Scores, Bill James; Game Score Version 2.0, Tom Tango; Explaining Pitcher List’s Player Card Grades, Kyle Bland

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The Approach Angle

Nate Schwartz (@_nateschwartz) and Kyle Bland (@blandalytics) are joined by Sara Sanchez to talk about park factors.

The discussion starts with the group talking about what goes into park factors and what they actually mean. They discuss how specific factors, such as HR or strikeout factors, can be more important than the overall factor at times. They also talk about how the weather can get baked into some park factors and ignored in others (such as the wind in Wrigley). Next, they get into how players prepare and adapt to different parks, both offensively and defensively. Finally, Kyle explains how park factors get integrated into daily & weekly projections, and Sara talks about how controlled environments in domes is good for pitchers.

Articles discussed: An Updated System of Park Factors (and Volatility), Jonathan Judge; The Park Factors are in the Pudding, Kiri Oler; The Impact of Changing Park Factors Around Baseball (Pt. 1)

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