Matthew and Sarbjit are joined by Robert Martin, founder of the forecasting website Lean Tossup, to discuss how his predictive model works and why it may be superior to traditional forecasting methods in the impossible-to-model 2020 cycle. 

Also on the agenda: 

The impact of 2016 PTSD on 2020 predictions 

Why forecasters and prediction markets disagree so dramatically on Trump's reelection odds 

How to profit by fading the conventional wisdom 

Your hosts: 

Sarbjit Bakhshi, head of political markets at Smarkets 

@sarbjit_pol  

Matthew Shaddick, head of political betting at Ladbrokes  

@shadsy

Robert Martin (guest)

@LeanTossup 

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Cold Funk Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) 

Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 License 

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ 

All content and opinions presented herein, whether by hosts and guests, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or other advice.