The Battle for the Black Sea Is Not Over

As Russia scores localized gains on land, Ukrainian forces have achieved major successes in the Black Sea Region (BSR). The Ukrainians have sunk or damaged some one-third of the Black Sea Fleet, forced Moscow to move naval assets away from occupied Crimea, and put Russia on the defensive. These successes challenge the narrative that Russia’s war against Ukraine is a stalemate and demonstrate Ukraine’s determination to preserve its identity, sovereignty, and independence.

Ukraine’s gains are real and strategically significant, but the Battle for the Black Sea is not over. Major Russian land, sea, and air assets remain in Crimea and in the BSR, and Moscow is using them to continue its quest to subordinate Ukraine. The war will be won or lost on land and in the air.

If Russia wins or ends the war on its terms, the interests of all Black Sea littoral states will be negatively affected. But so too will those of the United States, Europe, and the West more broadly. The US has a major interest in a free and open Black Sea and a peaceful, stable, and prosperous BSR.

Join Hudson for an event to present the results of an in-depth study written by a US–Romanian–Ukrainian team: Hudson Senior Fellow Matt Boyse, New Strategy Center CEO George Scutaru, New Strategy Center Senior Fellow Dr. Antonia Colibasanu, and New Geopolitics Research Network Director Mykhailo Samus.