It’s Thursday, December 4. This is The Front Page, your daily window into the world of The Free Press—and our take on the world at large. Today: The motivated reasoning of climate science. An immigration judge fired by Trump speaks out. Ryan Holiday on the book you should read instead of “The Catcher in the Rye.” Elliot Ackerman on how Pete Hegseth screwed up. And much more.

But first: How bad are things in Europe?

David Betz—a historian and professor at King’s College London—is an unlikely prophet of doom. Betz has spent the last 24 years writing “specialist articles and books” as a scholar of civil wars, and he has recently come to the alarming conclusion that Britain is destined for civil war. In fact, Betz thinks the early stages of such a conflict are already underway. “The tipping point has already been passed,” he tells Dominic Green, who writes about Betz—and the possibility of civil war in Britain—for The Free Press today.

It sounds like a fringe theory, but does Betz have a point? Read Dom’s report for more on the professor’s dystopian predictions—and why he thinks it’s not just Britain that faces a dark future.

From one alarming European story to another. Kara Kennedy examines the strange case of Finnish politician Päivi Räsänen. She’s no ordinary citizen—she’s spent the last 30 years in Finland’s parliament, and served for several years as the country’s interior minister. But that hasn’t saved her from Helsinki’s speech police.

A member of Finland’s Evangelical Lutheran Church, she criticized its 2019 decision to sponsor an LGBT Pride event. She did this by tweeting a passage from the Bible saying that gay sex is sinful and, as a result, has been on trial for the last six years as state prosecutors try again and again to convict her of a hate crime.

Now that it’s reached the Supreme Court of Finland, Kennedy says the heart of the matter “is a simple question with massive consequences: Can quoting the Bible be a crime?” Read her dispatch—a truly wild tale—to find out.

—Will Rahn

On Old School: Read this Book Instead of The Catcher in the Rye

In the latest episode of Old School, Shilo Brooks sits down with author Ryan Holiday to discuss Walker Percy’s The Moviegoer. Percy’s classic follows a Korean War veteran who has money, women, and a respectable job, but whose inner life is defined by existential malaise and a spiritual itch that he calls “the search.” Holiday—who describes the novel as a better and more mature Southern cousin to The Catcher in the Rye—makes the case that the New Orleans–set story is even more relevant in our media-saturated world than it was when it was published in 1961, with more Americans than ever still on their own quiet search for meaning.

A Live Q&A with Haviv Rettig Gur

Join us this evening at 5 p.m. ET for a live conversation with Maya Sulkin and our Middle East analyst, Haviv Rettig Gur. Haviv will be answering subscriber questions about Israeli politics, the latest on Hamas and Hezbollah, and anything else you’re wondering about in the region. You can still submit a question here. This is a livestream for paid subscribers.

President Trump said on Tuesday that he could soon begin ordering land strikes on alleged narco-traffickers in Latin America. (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images)

• President Trump said on Tuesday that he could soon begin ordering land strikes on alleged narco-traffickers in Latin America following an astounding U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean and a series of deadly strikes against boats purportedly carrying drugs. “You know, the land is much easier,” Trump told reporters. “And we’re going to start that very soon, too.”

• President Trump announced Wednesday that he will pardon Texas Rep. Henry Cuellar, a conservative Democrat, on charges of conspiracy and bribery. House Republicans had hoped to unseat Cuellar in next year’s midterms.

• Progressive councilman James Solomon defeated former governor Jim McGreevey in a runoff for Jersey City’s mayoral race. McGreevey’s loss marks the end of an attempted political comeback, 20 years after he resigned from his governor’s seat due to an extramarital affair with another man.

• New data from the payroll processor ADP shows that private hiring fell in November. According to ADP, the private sector lost 32,000 jobs in November, a sharp downturn from the 47,000 private-sector jobs gained in October.

• A wave of federal agents arrived in New Orleans on Wednesday, part of the Trump administration’s crackdown on illegal immigrants residing in the United States. With protests expected in the heavily Democratic city, Louisiana state police will assist federal law enforcement operations; the New Orleans city police will not.

• The Trump administration has paused immigration applications from 19 “high-risk” countries, including Iran, Venezuela, Somalia, and Libya. The memo cited last week’s shooting of two National Guardsmen by an Afghan national as a result of ineffective vetting that now poses a “threat to the American people.”

• The death toll of a massive Hong Kong high-rise apartment fire rose to 159 on Wednesday, with victims ranging from 1 to 97 years old. Authorities have arrested six people who allegedly deactivated some of the building’s fire alarms before the flames broke out. Thirty people are still missing.

• Bad Bunny has dethroned Taylor Swift as the world’s most-listened-to artist, according to newly released 2025 Spotify Wrapped. Bad Bunny amassed 19.8 billion streams on the music platform, more than Swift, who had the most streams for the last two years. Bad Bunny will headline this year’s Super Bowl.