This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses best in class data look at 10 charts that could be pivotal to performance in 2023. Inflation, unemployment and the policy response are key, but the energy crisis is still bubbling beneath the surface and recession-watch will be everyone’s favourite pastime next year.

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Chinese equities have been rallying for a month in expectation that COVID restrictions would be lifted. Despite this, commodities and other global assets that should have been affected have yet to provide anything more than false starts. This week, however, we got the definitive news that restrictions were being lifted meaningfully and we assess whether this is now the time that commodities finally make their move higher

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In this episode of The Big Conversation, Real Vision’s Jamie McDonald examines the possible reasons for the pullback in commodity prices and asks whether an impending recession is the main driver. If that is the case, then why do we see such resilience in 2023 corporate earnings especially when other data, particularly housing data, is pointing to estimates being far lower.

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses best in class data to see how financial markets may transition from 2022 and the year of the price shock to uncertainty in2023. Could that be the year of the growth shock? Whilst the consensus is for a slowdown, will it be deep or mild?

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at the recent decline in the dollar and what this could mean for Fed policy. The long-term relationship of a falling dollar is rising commodity prices. Therefore, an early pivot could run the risk of rebooting inflation. That in turn might require the Fed to remain on a hawkish path. Will the Fed start to ease off before they have got prices under control?

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at the outlook for employment and its implications for both recessions and equity markets. Equity markets usually make a major bottom during recessions and recessions go hand in hand with higher unemployment. Currently, unemployment is close to record lows. That could change, but will it be swift enough to allow the Fed to reverse course on rates? In the Chatter, Real Vision’s Roger Hirst talks to Kelvin Tay, Regional Chief Investment Officer at UBS Wealth Management in Singapore, about the likelihood of a recession in the US.

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This week Real Vision’s Jamie McDonald uses best in class data to tackle the question of why US yields continue to rise despite deteriorating economic conditions. The answer possibly lies a very long way from the US, in Japan. This week the BoJ intervened once again to stabilize their currency and that means selling treasuries - a lot of them.  

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This week Real Vision’s James Helliwell uses best in class data to make sense of the markets in the wake of the latest inflation data. With core CPI hitting a 40-year high despite seeing a slowdown in the headline data, investors are increasingly concerned by the broadening of price pressures, and the potential for this to fuel a wage spiral as workers demand increases to keep up with the cost of living. But might the Fed’s rate hikes bring this to an end by creating higher unemployment? In the chatter, Real Vision’s James Helliwell talks to Indrani De, Head of Global Investment Research at LSEG, about some of the key trends and structural changes taking place beneath the surface of the labor market, and how these might influence the outlook for inflation, rate hikes and risk assets. 

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2  

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This week Real Vision’s Jamie McDonald uses best in class data to look at the prospect of a higher oil price through midterms and into year end, and the surprising effects that could have on the consumer. Last week OPEC+ made the decision to cut oil production and it had the desired effect, a higher oil price. But couple this with less ammo from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve post midterms in a month, and we could see oil grind higher into year end. In the Chatter, Real Vision’s Roger Hirst talks to David Rickard, Director in Trading Solutions at LSEG, about several of these issues but in particular how they relate to higher government yields.

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at markets that were breaking but are now bouncing. The stresses in the UK bond market and the strength in the US dollar has led to a repricing of a potential Fed pivot. But, if the markets pivot before the Fed, does that make a pivot less likely?

See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2

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