Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan explores the concept of "Black Swan events" – unpredictable and high-impact occurrences that significantly shape our world. Taleb argues that our minds are not designed to anticipate such events, leading to a consistent underestimation of their likelihood and impact. He critiques conventional statistical methods, particularly the reliance on the bell curve, which he argues is ill-suited for understanding the true nature of randomness in complex systems. He emphasizes the need for "robustness" – building systems that can withstand unpredictable events – rather than focusing on prediction, which is often unreliable. The text also delves into the limitations of human cognition, highlighting biases such as the "narrative fallacy" and "confirmation bias" which distort our understanding of reality. Taleb advocates for a more "skeptical empiricist" approach, acknowledging the limits of our knowledge and embracing uncertainty.