The Bond Market Has Sent a Big Recession Signal. Here's What to Do by Ian Salisbury Earlier this month, bond market investors sent one the clearest signals yet that the U.S. economy is teetering on the edge of a recession. For the first time since the 2007 financial crisis, yields on 2-year Treasury bonds slipped below those of longer-dated 10-year notes. The move, known as “yield curve inversion,” has preceded every recession since the 1970s.