In the premiere episode of our new monthly series, The Jim Paulsen Show we dig into Jim's latest research and the charts that define today's economic and market landscape. Jim lays out a compelling case for why the private sector is more resilient than many believe, why a recession may not be on the horizon, and why so many parts of the market still look cheap despite record index levels. We explore the implications of tariffs, the underappreciated productivity boom, the potential for a market broadening, and the risks posed by policy uncertainty.

Whether you're a macro thinker, a data-driven investor, or just trying to make sense of this confusing market, Jim brings clarity, charts, and contrarian insight.

🔍 Topics Covered:

• Why recession odds may be lower than consensus believes

• The disconnect between pessimism and actual economic conditions

• The impact of tariffs and why they may be disinflationary

• What’s really happening with the hard vs. soft economic data

• Why tech jobs are flat even as tech market cap soars

• The mystery of weak dividend growth during a bull market

• Why most corporate profits are below trend despite strong S&P earnings

• What could drive a broadening of the rally

• Valuation dispersion and why 76% of industries still look cheap

• Evidence micro caps may be leading a shift in market leadership

• What falling confidence among the wealthy might signal for stocks

• How we’re mismeasuring productivity in the AI era

⏱️ Timestamps:
00:00 – Jim’s contrarian view: why a recession may not happen
02:00 – Private sector balance sheet strength
06:00 – The problem with policy staying tight during slow growth
08:00 – Surprise index vs. hard data and what’s changing
10:50 – Are tariffs truly inflationary?
15:00 – Why financial markets aren't signaling inflation risk
17:50 – Can hard data finally move the Fed?
20:00 – Tech market cap vs. employment: why jobs aren’t growing
25:30 – Dividend growth is stalling—what it means
29:00 – Corporate profits: below trend for a decade
33:00 – S&P profits vs. broader corporate earnings
35:00 – Could the rally broaden beyond the Mag 7?
38:00 – Micro caps and early signs of leadership shift
40:00 – Why falling confidence among the wealthy may be bullish
45:00 – 76% of industries are still cheap—how is that possible?
48:00 – Sector breadth is historically narrow—why that could change
50:00 – Tech’s risk-adjusted returns show surprising strength
52:00 – Trump, the Fed, and the risk to central bank independence