Less Crowded Houses. NZ’s housing policy success and implications for Australia by Stuart Donovan.

To read the paper: https://www.cis.org.au/publication/less-crowded-houses-the-success-of-nzs-housing-policy-reforms-and-implications-for-australia/

To become a member: https://www.cis.org.au/membership-2-step-1/ 

Introduction to the Paper:

Many Australians are increasingly concerned by deteriorating housing affordability and its implications for socio-economic outcomes. In a recent survey, 62% of respondents agreed that “continued increases in house prices is bad for the economy and is exacerbating wealth inequality”.[1] In another survey, around two-thirds of respondents agreed that the federal government was not doing enough to address Australia’s housing problems.[2] Analysis by the Australian Bureau of Statistics finds genuine cause for concern, with rates of home ownership for those aged 25-39 years falling from 66% to 55% in the period from 1991 to 2021.[3]

Such concerns are increasingly reflected in policy, with a recent federal government report observing that “rising housing costs” pose “challenges for many young Australians”.[4] The same report pointed to a need for housing supply to be “responsive to demand”, especially in locations that are accessible to jobs. There is indeed growing evidence that housing policy reforms can increase supply and support affordability. Perhaps most notably, rates of housing supply in New Zealand have — after a decade of reform — surged past Australia. For these reasons, this paper reviews New Zealand’s reforms and considers potential lessons for Australia.

First, the paper summarises the context to housing policy reforms in New Zealand, which have sought to streamline planning processes and enable housing in desirable locations, a process known as ‘upzoning’. The term is used here to describe changes to planning policies that enable more housing to be built, such as increased building height limits. A recurring theme in New Zealand’s housing policy reforms has been the potential distributional effects of upzoning — that is, who ‘wins’ and ‘loses’. Growing awareness of the distributional benefits of housing appears to have fostered broad-based support for reforms in New Zealand.

The paper then briefly reviews empirical evidence on the impacts of New Zealand’s housing reforms. These effects are apparent from even a cursory comparison of housing outcomes in councils that have upzoned versus those that have not. In 2023, for example, upzoned councils in Auckland, Canterbury, and Lower Hutt have accounted for around two-thirds of all the dwelling consents issued in New Zealand, which is much more than their share of the population. Several credible economic studies find upzoning supported large and rapid improvements in housing affordability as well as a rapid expansion in social housing.

Thirdly, the paper presents some preliminary analyses of New Zealand’s housing policy reforms. Whereas dwelling growth in Canterbury and Auckland initially lagged population growth, after each region was upzoned in 2011 and 2016, dwellings have grown faster than population. Moreover, analysis of data from Auckland shows the population of people aged 20-34 years grew most strongly in areas that experienced the most upzoning, and vice versa for those aged 65+ years. While more research is needed, these preliminary analyses suggest young people may have disproportionately benefited from these reforms, where benefits likely represent a ‘double dividend’ of more affordable housing and better access to jobs and amenities.

There have been several recent overviews of New Zealand’s housing reforms, including Maltman (2023), Greenaway-McGrevy (2024), Blick and Stewart (2024) and Politano (2024).  These summaries focus on estimates of the effects of Auckland’s Unitary Plan. Like this paper, they agree that upzoning led to large increases in construction and improvements in affordability.  This paper updates this earlier work, provides a broader context, and is targeted at a broad Australian audience.

To conclude, this paper argues that Australia can learn from New Zealand’s experience: enabling more housing can quickly lead to more supply and improved affordability.

The Argument For Debate: how school debating can improve academic outcomes and foster a stronger democracy. 

The Rise of Activist Corporations: How activism agendas subsumed shareholder primacy

by Peter Swan AO

September 26, 2024

#auspol #woke

Read the paper here: https://www.cis.org.au/publication/government-spending-and-inflation/

Some observers welcome this growth to the extent it is a reflection of new spending programs and expansion of existing programs perceived to meet legitimate needs. But it is also a matter of serious concern for reasons that include the implications for higher taxation and public debt, the effect on incentives and the diversion of scarce resources away from alternative and higher productivity activities.

Recently, attention has turned to the impact of higher public spending on inflation as monetary policy struggles to restore inflation to its target. Specifically, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has spoken of the high level of aggregate demand relative to the economy’s potential output. The RBA has drawn attention to the relatively rapid growth of public final demand as a contributor to excessive aggregate demand —­ although the Governor has also stated that public sector demand “is not the main game” in the policy response to persistent inflation.

This policy paper presents the key facts about public expenditure growth in recent years and discusses its contribution to inflation.

All our links: https://linktr.ee/centreforindependentstudies 

The pacifist answer to the problem of #war is straightforward. Any use of violent force by anybody in any circumstances is immoral and should cease. War is always worse than its alternatives; peace is always preferable. This is not a view to which I subscribe. We all want peace, but at what cost and to whom? If those who believe in the possibility of morally justified war have to reckon with the dreadful consequences of their position, so do pacifists. Not going to war in 1994 was good for Britons and Australians, but not so good for the Tutsi in Rwanda: our staying at peace left the Hutu at peace to slaughter 800,000 of them. Peace, like war, is morally complicated.

The war in #Ukraine has resulted in the widespread devastation of the country. Russian president Vladimir Putin’s threat to use nuclear weapons hangs over it, and it seems unlikely that the Ukrainians can triumph over Russia. So, surely it would have been better, if Kyiv had not resisted in the first place. And would it not be best, if it were to stop resisting now?

Meanwhile in #Gaza the civilian casualties of the war between Israel and Hamas continue to mount. South Africa has accused Israel of genocide, and the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court has applied for a warrant to arrest the Israeli Prime Minister. And yet, it was Hamas that began the current phase of the conflict with the horrendously deliberate and indiscriminate massacre of #Israeli civilians on October 7 last year. And it is Hamas that planned to make a battlefield out of a dense urban environment, building tunnels for its gunmen but no shelters for non-combatants. And it is Hamas that is constitutionally committed to eradicating #Israel. So how are we to make coherent moral sense of the situation?

Counting the Cost: Subsidies For Renewable Energy By Michael Wu.

How to Build Low-Cost Nuclear: Lessons from the world by Aidan Morrision. First published on April 11, 2024.

For all references and graphs, please download the publication at the centre for independent studies website where you can also become a member of CIS. As this paper is graph and data-heavy, it’s a good idea to have the paper open as you listen along. The paper can be downloaded from here: 

Professor Sweller underscored the essential role of knowledge, especially in educational contexts focusing on students' learning process. He posited that human cognition, an intelligent system itself, largely depends on our existing knowledge. Furthermore, he emphasized that the importance of knowledge in human cognition has been often downplayed both in educational research and AI development. This subtle observation explains AI's remarkable growth in recent times.

In a remarkable comparison, he explored the idea that like humans who struggle with limited intelligence due to insufficient knowledge, AI applications too have limitations in their utility without considerable accessible knowledge and information, the recent proliferation of which has been facilitated by the massive storage of data.

He delves deeper into the potential limitations of AI and the inefficiency of discovery learning for both humans and artificial intelligence systems. This becomes particularly relevant when false or implausible conclusions, known as AI hallucinations, are generated due to insufficient or low-quality data available to an algorithm.

Sweller stimulatively invites us to grapple with the concept of intelligence, its interplay with our knowledge and the foundations of intelligent systems. By reflecting on these foundations, we can better navigate the opportunities, challenges, and limitations of today’s AI and its potential implications for future educational systems and wider societal dimensions.

What is the Science of Learning? By Trisha Jha.

The establishment of the Australian Education Research Organisation (AERO) — in particular its recent work How students learn best — and the Strong Beginnings report into initial teacher education reforms are important because they create space for shifting focus towards the science of learning.

Unfortunately, key pillars of Australian education policy do not reflect the science of learning, due to the far-reaching impacts of progressive educational beliefs dating back to the 18th century.

These beliefs include that:

• Students learn best when they themselves guide their learning and it aligns with their interest;

But these beliefs are contradicted by the science of learning, which is the connection between: 1) insights from cognitive science and educational psychology; and 2) the teaching practices  supported (and not supported) by those insights. Key concepts include:

• Biologically primary knowledge (BPK) and biologically secondary knowledge (BSK): These concepts are not about stages of schooling. Rather, BPK includes things like basic social relations and problem-solving skills we have evolved to learn and do not need to be taught. In contrast, BSK includes foundational skills — like reading, writing, maths as well as coding, Cubism and how to kick a football (what schools are for) — we can only learn through instruction;

The teaching approach best supported by the evidence is explicit instruction of a well-sequenced, knowledge-focused curriculum. Some key features of explicit instruction include:

• Careful ordering of curriculum content so that new information and concepts are built sequentially;

There are many implications for the science of learning:

• For teachers, it is an opportunity to design instruction in a way that is likely to lead to most students’ success with learning;

Read the paper here. 

When taking a closer look at the regulations presently stifling the housing market, it reveals a grim picture where tax concessions and local goverments' influence play a significant role. Emily Dye exposes how perceived views, heritage protections and desire for preservation overrule the need for more housing, leading to an unreasonably high ration of median house prices to incomes.

Dye spotlights the need for a shift in housing preference. As younger generations are drawn towards environment-friendly, high-density housing, the bureaucratic regulations continue to favor single-family sites. The zoning tax—a housing constraint resulting from bureaucratic interventions—is dissected in the publication, revealing its heavy contribution to the high home prices in major Australian cities.

While high immigration is frequently blamed for the surge in home prices, Emily argues that restrictive supply is, in fact, the culpit. She asserts that demand only becomes a problem when supply is handicapped. Dye concludes with a compelling argument for increased housing stock through strategic state interventions, arguing that this is the only path to make housing affordable for Australia’s future generations.