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   Number 1: Chuck’s Commentary - Voters Hate The Trump Economy… And It’s Only Getting Worse + America Hasn’t Been This Vulnerable In Decades

   Chuck Todd argues the entire 2026 election is collapsing into a single issue — prices — and that every other story is just a contributing factor. The problem for Republicans is that the economy is going to get worse, not better: price pressure is building across the food supply, the Iran war has disrupted fuel and fertilizer, JP Morgan is warning food inflation could hit 5% by 2027, and Kevin Warsh is going to be forced to raise rates, which will infuriate a president who Chuck argues is focused mainly on his own financial interests and could produce genuinely 1970s-like conditions. Chuck brings back reporting from a visit to the Black Locust Livestock cattle ranch to explain why beef prices can't be fixed by turning a dial: raising cattle is a years-long process, the American herd is historically small, only four companies process the country's beef and capacity is shrinking, and importing more is a short-term patch that damages domestic supply long term. It's the pattern of the whole administration — solving a price problem today by making it worse tomorrow, while the cost of producing food rises because of decisions Trump himself made. Underneath it all sits the number that explains the mood of the country: corporate pre-tax profits are at their highest share since just after World War II while workers take home the smallest share since the 1950s. There is no economic boom for most Americans, Washington keeps misreading the anger, and Trump's own voters are getting hit hardest at the pump. The war, Chuck argues, isn't just making life expensive — it's making America vulnerable. Defense leaders are warning Hegseth the Iran campaign is unsustainable: barely a quarter of the Navy's destroyer fleet is ready to deploy, advanced munitions stocks are largely burned through, and equipment and personnel are worn out, meaning fighting this war has left the country less capable of fighting the next one. China is the clear winner of Trump's second term, and Chuck’s real worry is Putin testing NATO while looking at an American president desperate for any win. Then there's Venezuela, where Trump has announced the U.S. has seized the country's oil reserves — a move Chuck calls British-empire-style imperialism and highway robbery at gunpoint, asking the obvious question: if Putin did this to a neighbor, what would we call it? The standard shouldn't change because we're the ones doing it, the windfall ought to benefit Venezuelans, and it's worth asking who's actually negotiating this and who stands to profit. It's exactly why two-thirds of South America resents the United States, and why Trump's imperial turn will only compound a credibility problem that's already severe. Chuck closes somewhere more personal: his old high school, Miami's Killian, is down from 3,000 students to 400. The kids didn't disappear — school choice killed the ambition to attend. Big public high schools once defined their communities and forced people to know each other; we traded that for choice and specialization without ever asking what a public school is actually for. We didn't try to fix public education, Chuck argues. We empowered people to escape it — and in doing so gutted one of the real sources of American strength. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the assassination of President William McKinley and the striking parallels between modern America, and America in 1901. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:30 With return of college football, comes a ton of political advertising 05:00 Football attracts a wide array of potential voters 06:30 Pro-Paxton ad in Texas made China the central theme, blamed Talarico 07:30 GOP has controlled Texas for decades, blaming Talarico is ridiculous 10:00 Dems dismiss the ad as ridiculous, but some people will believe it 12:15 Massachusetts primaries coming up on Tuesday, Sept 1st 14:15 The electorate will be voting on one issue… prices & affordability 15:00 Every other issue is a contributing factor to the price issues 15:45 The problem for Republicans is the economy will get worse, not better 16:30 Price pressures are building across the food supply 16:45 Iran war is causing major issues with the fuel & fertilizer supply 18:00 JP Morgan warns food inflation could reach 5% by 2027 18:30 Kevin Warsh will be forced to raise rates, Trump will be furious 19:00 Trump is only worried about his own personal financial interest 19:45 Fed raising rates to combat inflation will create 1970’s like conditions 20:15 Went to the Black Locust Livestock cattle ranch for Noosphere interview 21:45 Beef prices can’t just be adjusted with the turn of a dial 22:15 Raising cattle is a long term process & our beef herd is historically small 23:00 Trump knows beef prices are hurting him & wanted to import more 24:15 Importing is a short term solution, hurts the long term domestic supply 25:00 Only 4 companies process American beef & we’re losing capacity 25:30 How we can lower beef prices and boost domestic production 26:30 Trump tries to solve price issues in the short term, makes it worse long term 27:00 The price to produce food is rising because of decisions Trump made 27:45 Corporate pre-tax profits are at highest share since aftermath of WW2 28:15 Workers are getting lowest take home share of profits since 1950s 29:00 This is why voters across the spectrum are so pissed off at the system 29:30 There’s no economic boom for most Americans 30:15 Washington continues to misunderstand the anger of the voters 30:45 Trump voters are getting hardest hit by higher gas prices 32:30 Iran war isn’t just making things expensive, it’s making us more vulnerable 33:00 Defense leaders warning Hegseth the Iran war is unsustainable 33:45 Hegseth has put America in more danger than it’s been in since Cold War 34:15 Barely 1/4th of the Navy’s destroyer fleet is ready to deploy 34:45 We’ve burned through most of our advanced munitions 35:15 We’ve worn out our military equipment and personnel 36:00 Fighting this war has made us less capable of fighting the next war 36:30 China has been the biggest winner of Trump’s second term 37:00 What are we no longer willing to do because of the Iran war? 38:00 We’ve spent all this money on the military… and we’re tapped out? 38:30 We should be incredibly concerned about Putin testing NATO 39:15 Putin sees an American president desperate for a win 40:00 Trump announced that we’ve seized Venezuela’s oil reserves 40:45 This feels like British empire style imperialism 42:00 If Putin had done this to another country… what would we call it? 42:30 The standards shouldn’t be different because WE are doing it 43:30 Who is doing this negotiation and who stands to benefit? 44:30 Shouldn’t the windfall from Venezuelan oil benefit Venezuelans? 45:00 Trump is taking Venezuela’s oil at gunpoint, it’s highway robbery 46:00 This is why 2/3rd’s of South America hates the United States 46:30 Trump wants to make America and empire… and the world will hate us 48:00 This compounds America’s credibility problem globally 49:00 The world is only going to hate America & Americans more due to Trump 51:00 Chuck’s high school, Killian is down to 400 students from 3,000 51:45 The kids didn’t disappear, school choice killed ambition to attend there 53:00 Big successful public high schools defined their communities 54:30 Connection between community and schools has broken down 55:00 School choice creates communities not based in their neighborhood 56:00 We haven’t asked “What do we want a public school to do for a community?” 56:45 A public school is central to creating a local community 57:30 We trade choice and specialization, for a community that isn’t forced to interact 59:00 Killian’s community is still a good one, but the character changed 1:00:15 What exactly is public education for? Is it purely for kids' education? 1:01:00 The public school system was a source of our power… and we’ve gutted it 1:01:30 We didn’t try to fix public ed, we tried to empower people to escape it 1:03:45 We created more choices, but did we make education better? 1:05:45 We lost a place where we were forced to get to know each other 1:09:00 ToddCast Time Machine - The Assassination of William McKinley 1:09:30 Of all presidential assassinations, Americans know the least about this one 1:10:00 The assassin was Leon Czolgosz, an anarchist who felt system was unjust 1:10:45 After McKinley died, Teddy Roosevelt became president 1:11:15 Czolgosz actually produced some of the political change he wanted 1:12:00 Modern America echoes America in 1901 1:13:00 Czolgosz saw political assassinations create change in Europe 1:14:45 Other anarchists thought Czolgosz was too committed, maybe a plant 1:15:15 Emma Goldman argues that societal conditions explain the assassination 1:16:00 When people conclude politics won’t solve problems, they look to alternatives 1:16:45 The assassination happened at a fair showing celebrating technological advances 1:17:30 The United States was emerging as a world power, but there were two Americas 1:18:00 One America saw dynamism, the other saw exploitation 1:18:30 The setting of the assassination was almost poetic 1:19:15 Doctors treating McKinley were too afraid to use new X-ray technology 1:20:15 Lincoln’s son was actually nearby during the assassination 1:20:45 Roosevelt was installed as VP by party bosses to get rid of him 1:21:30 Roosevelt sworn in at age 42, and understood the conditions for political radicalism 1:22:00 Roosevelt argues for the “Square Deal” and goes after concentrated corporate power 1:23:00 The uncomfortable truth: Does assassination provide the sought political change? 1:23:45 Lincoln and JFK’s assassination both changed the political timeline 1:25:00 Czolgosz was convicted and executed weeks after McKinley’s death 1:25:30 Congress passes the Anarchist Exclusion Act, Goldman is deported 1:27:00 The forces that produced Czolgosz weren’t confined to America 1:27:30 Roosevelt’s policies helped prevent a Russian-style revolution 1:28:00 Roosevelt argues capitalism has to be regulated and restrained 1:29:15 America in 2026 isn’t America 1901, but it does rhyme 1:30:15 Ask Chuck 1:30:30 What do you make of James Talarico’s status in Texas? 1:36:30 Thoughts on Project 2025, is it a threat and is Trump following it? 1:38:45 Do you think the Trump administration will still act on Cuba? 1:41:00 Why not make the Attorney General an elected position? 1:44:45 Do you see your political independence as a protest against duopoly? 1:49:00 Takeaways from first week of college football See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

   August 31, 2026·1h 54min
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   Number 2: Chuck’s Commentary - Trump’s Trade Wars Are Directly Impacting The Battleground States… & The Midterms + Mark Walter Is The Canary In The Coal Mine

   Chuck Todd opens with the collapse of U.S.-Canada trade talks, where Mark Carney walked away after last-minute American demands — chiefly on mid- and heavy-duty truck tariffs — and declared the U.S. can't be trusted as a partner. Asked about the tone of his remarks, Carney's answer was blunt: you are at war when you get attacked. Chuck notes the whole western world is quietly cheering him on even as individual European leaders push back while the EU took its deal, and argues the real problem is that this administration isn't negotiating with one voice. The fallout lands squarely on Senate battlegrounds, forcing Susan Collins to speak out against her own party's trade war. Then there's beef: Trump's move to let in 300,000 metric tons of tariff-free ground beef drew immediate fire from cattle groups and Republicans including Ashley Hinson and Tim Sheehy, and Chuck argues it's a tacit admission that the tariff regime is raising prices. Battleground states account for two-thirds of American cattle ranching, Iowa becomes the bellwether, and Trump is single-handedly making safe races competitive — while Scott Bessent defends the indefensible, calling tariff refunds corporate welfare and arguing the country needs fewer jobs because of deportations, all as the national debt clears $40 trillion. Then Chuck highlights that polling between July 4th and Labor Day is largely wasted money, the August electorate isn't the November electorate, polling has gotten cheaper and worse, and polling averages deserve real skepticism. Arkansas is the case study — five Senate polls, four poorly done, and the one that got everyone's attention showing Tom Cotton in trouble had bad methodology. Chuck’s landing: don't buy the poll, but Cotton may be in some trouble anyway, because he's an old-school hawk who championed war with Iran in a state where Trump commands more personal loyalty than he does. He won't lose, but the margin could surprise. Chuck also flags red flags in Byron Donalds' northern Florida margins, argues the USS Abraham Lincoln reporting exposed a credibility crisis at a Pentagon where Hegseth treats accurate reporting as a personal threat, and warns it'll take decades for either the Pentagon or DOJ to recover. Plus: an NRSC memo declaring data center politics toxic, Mike Rogers keeping AIPAC out of Michigan while El-Sayed argues outside money shouldn't buy the state's politics, and Hakeem Jeffries meeting privately with Jared Kushner — which Chuck defends outright, because communication isn't betrayal even when the base wants confrontation. He closes on the question underneath the ToddCast's Lakers special report: with private credit over $1.5 trillion and life insurers holding roughly $900 billion of it, is Mark Walter an outlier or the canary in the coal mine? Chuck’s answer is that he isn't an outlier at all — this is how the machine works now, in a corner of finance where no single regulator can see the whole picture and where the real worry may be inflated valuations. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Harry Truman nationalizing the railroad system… and why emergency presidential powers need to be taken back by congress. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 03:00 Noosphere interview this week is on China shock 2.0 05:00 Dynastic this week is on Alabama football 07:00 A couple shout outs from Chuck 11:00 Trade talks between U.S. and Canada collapse 11:30 Mark Carney says the US can’t be trusted as a partner 12:30 Carney says U.S. fired the first shot in trade war with Canada 13:45 Carney doesn’t want Canada subservient to U.S. & will diversify 15:00 European leaders are individually pushing back, but EU took the deal 16:00 The whole western world is cheering on Mark Carney 18:00 We were close to a trade deal, then U.S. added new demands 19:00 Howard Lutnick got involved and created new problems 20:15 The Trump administration isn’t negotiating with one voice 21:15 All the senate battleground races are impacted by Canada trade war 22:30 These aren’t trivial trade relationships with Canada 23:00 Susan Collins is being forced to speak out against trade war 24:30 Trump is now creating a fight with the beef & cattle industry 25:15 Importing cheap foreign beef is admission tariff regime hurts consumers 26:00 Trump will hurt American cattle producers by importing beef 26:45 Battleground states account for 2/3rds of cattle ranching 27:45 This could make uncompetitive elections very competitive 28:15 Iowa will be the bellwether for Trump’s policies impacting ag states 29:15 Trump is actively hurting Republicans in ag heavy states 30:00 Scott Bessent is forced to say the stupidest things to defend Trump 30:30 Bessent is now saying tariff refunds are corporate welfare 31:30 Bessent says we don’t need as many jobs due to deportations 32:15 Bessent is trying to manipulate the bond market prior to midterms 33:15 National debt surpassed 40 trillion dollars, both sides point fingers 34:00 We’re going to have to deal with the debt sooner rather than later 35:00 It’s a waste of money to poll between July 4th and Labor Day 35:45 The electorate in August isn’t the same as the electorate in November 37:00 Polling has gotten cheaper… and worse 38:00 Be wary of indiscriminate polling averages 40:00 Arkansas has had 5 senate polls and 4 were poorly done 41:00 Arkansas poll got everyone’s attention, showed Cotton in trouble 42:30 The methodology of the poll was bad & limited 43:45 Don’t buy the poll, but Tom Cotton actually may be in trouble 44:30 Cotton is an old-school hawk, a champion of war with Iran 45:00 Trump has more personal loyalty in Arkansas than Cotton 45:45 Cotton won’t lose, but the margin may be surprisingly close 47:15 Examination of Bryon Donald's margins showed red flags 47:45 Donalds didn’t perform well in northern Florida counties 48:30 Base voters were motivated enough to go vote against him 49:00 USS Abraham Lincoln has revealed a credibility problem with DoD 49:30 Stars & Stripes was created to give troops access to independent info 50:00 Hegseth viewed accurate reporting as a threat to himself 50:30 Hegseth more worried about a presidential run than the troops 51:15 Can’t trust either the Justice Department or the Pentagon 52:00 It will take decades for either institution to regain credibility 53:30 NRSC put out memo saying data center politics are toxic 54:15 Messaging is to “let communities decide” 54:45 Data centers are the beginning of backlash against tech & AI 55:30 Mark Zuckerberg is only tech CEO who understands the backlash 56:00 Mike Rodgers doesn’t want AIPAC publicly involved in Michigan race 56:45 El-Sayed’s argument is outside interests shouldn’t purchase MI politics 57:30 Plenty of American jews support Israel, but not Netanyahu’s government 58:30 Hakeem Jeffries met privately with Jared Kushner 59:00 This meeting shows the Trump WH preparing for Speaker Jeffries 59:30 Jeffries in impossible position, base wants confrontation with Trump 1:00:30 Jeffries and Kushner SHOULD be talking, communication isn’t betrayal 1:01:45 Is Mark Walter an outlier, or the canary in the coal mine? 1:02:15 After financial crisis, government cracked down on banks 1:02:45 US private credit is now over $1.5 trillion dollar 1:03:30 Life insurance companies have become banks for the ultra wealthy 1:04:30 LIfe insurance companies can operate very differently 1:05:45 You can’t just pull your money out of a life insurance company 1:07:00 The incentives between investment firm & policyholder may not align 1:08:15 Life insurance companies hold $900B in private credit debt 1:08:45 Mark Walter isn’t an outlier, this is how the machine works 1:09:30 If a life insurance company fails, your money can be frozen 1:10:30 There are caps on policyholder protection 1:11:00 Executive Life failed when the junk bond market crashed 1:11:45 Executive Life bonds were bought by Leon Black, who founded Apollo 1:12:15 Insurance isn’t regulated by one agency, it’s multiple agencies and states 1:13:30 Regulators can’t get the picture of the entire machine, just pieces of it 1:14:15 Finance regulators have been siloed off from each other 1:15:45 The real worry here could be inflated valuations 1:20:00 ToddCast Time Machine - 1950, Truman seizes the nation’s railroads 1:20:45 Private rail was the primary transportation system at the time 1:21:15 Congress had given the president the tool to do this 1:22:00 The authority was used during WW1 and WW2 1:22:30 Truman wanted to draft striking rail workers into the military 1:23:00 The strike was settled while Truman was addressing congress 1:23:30 Railroad seizure became routine in the Truman administration 1:24:30 Truman decided country couldn’t risk rail strike during Korean War 1:25:45 Truman’s authority was never really challenged 1:26:15 The rail workers unions couldn’t stop workers from walking off the job 1:27:00 In April 1952 steelworkers were threatening to strike 1:28:30 Steel industry sued Truman and won after he tried to seize it 1:29:00 Rail seizure power was granted by congress, not for steel 1:30:45 Future presidents tried to use this same authority, didn’t always work 1:31:15 Congress needs to take back emergency powers after granting them 1:32:45 Could a future president try to use this power to seize the AI industry? 1:34:30 The lesson is how presidents accumulate power over time 1:35:15 Ask Chuck 1:35:30 Parallels between Natalie Harp and Isabel Lyon? 1:39:45 What gives you pause about Mark Kelly as a candidate? 1:43:30 Could a Democratic wave election change smaller local politics? 1:46:15 What is motivating Darline Graham to run for a full term? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

   August 24, 2026·1h 52min
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   Number 3: Full Episode - South Carolina Delayed Trump's Lame Duck Status... For Now + Why Trump Is Losing In Iran & Trying To Break The West

   Chuck Todd digs into Darline Graham's 52-48 runoff win over Ralph Norman in South Carolina — a result that snapped Trump's ugly endorsement streak but only barely, and only because Trump personally recruited her, endorsed her, flew to Myrtle Beach for a rally, and dropped more than $800,000 in MAGA Inc. money on a race his PAC had sat out all cycle elsewhere. Chuck's read is that Trump clearly still moves Republican primary voters, but that a four-point squeaker for an appointed newcomer carrying one of the most recognizable names in state politics is not the show of strength the White House wanted. Graham inherited Lindsey's negatives with voters without inheriting his positives, remains an amateur candidate prone to gaffes, and may be dragged down further by resentment over how she got the seat in the first place. Against her is Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician with a real organization raising real money — and while no Democrat has won a Senate race in South Carolina since 1998, Chuck asks the honest question about a favorable environment: what's Andrews' actual ceiling, and can 48% be a winning number in a state where the Supreme Court gutting the Voting Rights Act has produced a surge in Black turnout? If the blue wave turns into a tsunami, South Carolina lands on the map. A Graham loss in this environment would be a genuine disaster for Trump. That leads into the broader strategic picture, where Chuck reports Trump met with advisors about how to deploy his enormous war chest — with the advisors trying to keep the midterms from becoming a referen