Steve St. Angelo, founder of the SRSRocco Report, discussed a wide range of fundamental factors impacting precious metals, energy, and the broader economy, cautioning against sensationalist price targets. He argued that the recent parabolic surge in gold and silver, driven by massive FOMO, leverage, and specific narratives like a supposed Chinese export ban, has resulted in a necessary consolidation phase.

Current margins for miners are historically high, but a correction is likely not over, with technical gaps suggesting potential downside to $3,500 gold and $55 silver, especially during a broader market sell-off. A central theme was the fragility of energy markets. The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz serves as a preview of future constraints, with the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and Cushing inventories approaching critical functional minimums. This situation masks deeper issues, including opaque oil stockpile drawdowns in China.

Steve predicted that higher oil prices will manifest in the near term, contributing to economic stress. He identified the AI bubble as the primary catalyst for an impending recession, far more destructive than the dot-com crash, as trillions of dollars in data center buildout risk becoming stranded assets. The popping of this bubble, combined with liquidations by fundamentally unprofitable Bitcoin mining companies, is expected to trigger a significant deflationary wave. In this environment, St. Angelo sees investment demand, not industrial or central bank buying, as the ultimate long-term driver for silver, which will protect wealth as other financial assets suffer from peak energy constraints.

He also highlighted the market’s dysfunctional reality, noting that a spike to $300 silver would likely break the bullion dealer system, creating a liquidity crisis where sellers massively outnumber buyers.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:58 - Gold Silver Prod.  Costs & C.B.
00:04:23 - China Oil Inventory Drawdowns
00:05:49 - Strategic Petroleum Reserve Analysis
00:09:44 - Oil Inventory Timeline Risks
00:14:56 - AI Bubble and Recession Risks
00:19:43 - Federal Reserve Policy Challenges
00:24:04 - Precious Metals Miner Margins
00:26:00 - Gold Silver Risk Asset Behavior
00:28:26 - Future Gold Silver Outlook
00:35:03 - Trading Silver For Gold Oz.
00:42:51 - Bitcoin Miner Economics
00:49:18 - Concluding Thoughts



Guest:

Steve St. Angelo
Independent researcher Steve St. Angelo (SRSrocco) started to invest in precious metals in 2002. Later on in 2008, he began researching areas of the gold and silver market that, curiously, the majority of the precious metal analyst community have left unexplored. These areas include how energy and the falling EROI – Energy Returned On Invested – stand to impact the mining industry, precious metals, paper assets, and the overall economy.

Steve considers studying the impacts of EROI one of the most important aspects of his energy research. For the past several years, he has written scholarly articles in some of the top precious metals and financial websites.

You can find many of Steve’s articles on noteworthy sites, such as GoldSeek-SilverSeek, Market Oracle, Financial Sense, GoldSilver.com, SilverDoctors, TFMetals Report, Outsiderclub, SGTreport, BrotherJohnF, Hartgeld, Der-klare-blick, PeakProsperity, SilverStrategies, DollarCollapse, FurtureMoneyTrends, Sharpspixley, FinancialSurvivalNetwork, Pmbull, Deviantinvestor, PmBug, Wealthwire, and ZeroHedge.

#PreciousMetals #GoldSilver #EnergyCrisis #OilPrices #SPRInventory #CentralBanks #InvestmentDemand #SilverMining #GoldMining #AIBubble #MarketCrash #DeflationaryWave #BitcoinMining #PeakEnergy #WealthProtection
X Website YouTube


📈 The Competent Investor
Markets, macro, and the minds that move money.

Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.
RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.
Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.
X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.
YouTube — Full video episodes.

Lobo Tiggre, author and founder of the Independent Speculator, joined your host Tom Bodrovics to discuss the complex interplay of geopolitics, monetary policy, and commodity markets. Lobo argued that the war in the Middle East, while not inherently inflationary, fuels inflation through the government’s response—specifically, massive deficit spending and money printing to finance the conflict. He warned that this pattern of "profligacy" historically dethrones currencies and ends empires, placing new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in an impossible position between political pressure to cut rates and the economic need to fight inflation.

Recorded on: June 16, 2026

Some Competent Links:
Website: https://competentinvestor.com
Substack: https://competentmanpod.substack.com/
X: https://x.com/CompetentInv
Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-7699939

The conversation then shifted to market opportunities. Lobo, a self-described "wolf" hunting for low-risk entries, revealed he sold all his gold and silver stocks near the January peak, not from bearishness but from disciplined profit-taking. He is now eyeing the oil sector, anticipating that a potential peace deal could cause an overreaction and a sharp drawdown in oil prices, creating a compelling buying opportunity for quality producers. He remains long-term bullish on copper and uranium, citing structural supply deficits and the paradigm shift toward nuclear energy for 24/7 power and energy independence. However, he cautioned that an AI-driven market scare could put those sectors on sale as well.

Tiggre also touched on the improving permitting environment for mining in the U.S. under the Trump administration, noting it creates an investable window before potential policy reversals. He discussed his research on "crappy producers," confirming they can outperform in a bull market due to margin expansion but require precise market timing to avoid devastating drawdowns. Ultimately, Tiggre emphasized a disciplined, contrarian approach: patiently waiting for clear "buy low" opportunities across commodities rather than chasing momentum, and using tools like selling puts to enter positions at advantageous prices.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:52 - Fed Policy and War Impact
00:05:42 - Peace Deal Prospects
00:12:37 - Supply Chain Rerouting
00:15:20 - SpaceX IPO Valuations
00:22:34 - Taking Profits?
00:29:08 - Gold Sentiment & Opportunity
00:37:53 - Demand For Metals & Permitting
00:41:14 - Bull Markets & Miner Performance
00:46:12 - Oil Sector Strategy
00:49:23 - Copper Market Constrained?
00:51:55 - Uranium Market Thoughts
00:59:40 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
Website: https://independentspeculator.com
X: https://x.com/duediligenceguy
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/louis.james.965580/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lobotiggre/

Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name "Louis James." While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey.

Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record.

A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator.  Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has "skin in the game" with them.

#Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #FederalReserve #OilMarket #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics #Investing #Gold #Silver #Uranium #Commodities #StockMarket #AITechnology #MarketAnalysis

Guest:

Lobo Tiggre — Author & Founder of the Independent Speculator
Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name "Louis James." While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey.

Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record.

A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator. Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has "skin in the game" with them.
Website X Facebook LinkedIn


📈 The Competent Investor
Markets, macro, and the minds that move money.

Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.
RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.
Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.
X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.
YouTube — Full video episodes.

Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, presents a contrarian view on bonds, arguing they are now an attractive investment due to three factors.

First, the dominance of passive bond indices creates mechanical distortions, as market-cap weighting leads to misallocation during interest rate changes, undermining price discovery.

Second, broad inflation has largely ended, with demographics and high short-term rates pushing conditions toward deflation, while many confuse ongoing price-level increases with inflation.

Third, equities face high valuations and concentration risk, making bonds a safer option for income, especially for retirees. Green explains how banks’ "hold to maturity" bond holdings, trapped by unrealized losses from rate hikes, restrict credit provision. He proposed to the Treasury replacing these bonds at current coupons to free capital without a bailout, reducing systemic stress. He warns that monetary policy now acts as fiscal stimulus due to high debt-to-GDP, making rate cuts potentially contractionary and risking a crisis in housing and credit markets.

Green dismisses ideas like gold revaluation or gold-backed bonds as ineffective fantasy, emphasizing that bond market dysfunction is a global Western phenomenon tied to passive investing. He notes upcoming IPOs like SpaceX may increase equity supply and pressure valuations, but their scale is manageable compared to 2000. Ultimately, Green urges investors to recognize how bonds have shifted and to seek education on economic realities, advocating for forward-looking policy that improves infrastructure rather than reacts to crises.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:15 - Non-Consensus View on Bonds
00:01:55 - Understanding Inflation Properly
00:03:48 - Why Bonds Are Interesting Now
00:05:45 - Banking System Bond Problems
00:07:57 - Treasury Proposal to Free Capital
00:12:11 - Passive Investing Distortions
00:21:52 - Risks of Impending Crisis
00:28:01 - Federal Reserve Policy Challenges
00:35:07 - Inflation Impact on Consumers
00:44:26 - IPOs and Market Supply Issues
00:55:10 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Michael Green — Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management
Michael is Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management. Michael has been noted for his work as a market theoretician and financial media participant. He is a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania and a CFA holder.
Substack X


📈 The Competent Investor
Markets, macro, and the minds that move money.

Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.
RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.
Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.
X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.
YouTube — Full video episodes.

Craig Tindale argues that the current global instability stems from humanity's tendency to mistake its complex models for reality. He explains that systems like central banking and globalized supply chains were built on narrow metrics, such as price efficiency, while ignoring broader consequences like sovereignty and resilience. This "delusional" approach led to the offshoring of industrial capacity, creating critical dependencies that are now being exposed. He draws a parallel with climate models, noting how specialized scientific silos fail to capture integrated system dynamics, such as how shipping fuel regulations reduced cloud cover and increased ocean heating.

The discussion highlights how blockages in key chokepoints, like the Strait of Hormuz, are triggering cascading downstream effects that the "just-in-time" global economy cannot easily absorb. Tindale details the often-overlooked petrochemical supply chain, explaining how disruptions in products like naphtha and sulfuric acid will take months to materialize into shortages for fertilizers, plastics, and metal refining. This delayed reaction, he notes, creates a false sense of security that does not fit political or market cycles.

On the economic front, Tindale predicts a necessary end to the era of perpetual asset inflation and consumption driven by the wealthy. He believes the US dollar will evolve rather than collapse, likely becoming more of a transactional currency as nations form competing blocs and gravitate toward a commodity-backed system. He criticizes the dominant geopolitical narratives of short wars and national primacy, suggesting that major powers like the US and China are locked in a checkmate that will damage all involved, with smaller nations suffering the worst consequences. Ultimately, he advises cultivating personal resilience, community, and a capacity to tolerate uncertainty rather than seeking definitive predictions.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:40 - Models and Civilizational Renewal
00:08:36 - Understanding Climate Models
00:14:34 - Borrowing from the Future
00:17:17 - Just-in-Time Inventory Issues
00:22:00 - Downstream Oil Consequences
00:32:50 - Market Responses to Closures
00:38:10 - Dollar and Bond Impacts
00:46:50 - Potential for More Conflicts
00:51:50 - New Reserve Currency Basket
01:00:40 - Finding Credible Information
01:05:42 - Wrap Up

Guest:

Craig Tindale — Private Investor and Publish of the CTindale Substack
Craig Tindale is a private investor who has spent nearly four decades working in software development, business strategy, and infrastructure planning, including in leadership positions at Telstra, Oracle, and IBM. Additionally, he has direct experience working in east-to-west supply chains, including as the CEO and Asia Regional Director for DataDirect Technologies.

He’s now pivoted to investing in groundbreaking ideas such as drone reforestation through Air Seed Technologies, and uses his knowledge of Chinese industrial strategy and Western tech demand to identify the choke points in Critical Metals markets. Most recently he released the white paper, Critical Materials: A Strategic Analysis, which offers a systems synthesis on how the race for rare earths and the return of material constraints is shaping geopolitical relationships.
Substack X LinkedIn


📈 The Competent Investor
Markets, macro, and the minds that move money.

Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.
RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.
Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.
X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.
YouTube — Full video episodes.

Michael Kao, a former hedge fund manager and commodities trader, joined host Tom Bodrovics to discuss his view that the economy is walking a tightrope between two starkly different outcomes. Kao outlined a framework with four macro quadrants, defining a "Goldilocks" scenario of disinflationary growth and a "stagflationary" environment of slow growth with high inflation. His original thesis for the Trump 2.0 playbook anticipated the Goldilocks path, powered by AI-driven productivity and reshoring initiatives he calls a "reverse Marshall Plan," which could reduce the deficit much like the mid-1990s. This outlook has been severely disrupted by the unexpected Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has injected a supply-side inflationary shock into the system. This oil-led inflation is demand-destructive, essentially acting as a tax on consumers, and differs from the demand-led inflation of 2021.

A tour of current macro indicators highlights this tension: inflation measures (CPI, PPI, PCE) are rising, while labor and headline growth metrics remain surprisingly resilient. However, the consumer is being squeezed, with retail sales, spending, and consumer confidence declining alongside a sharp rise in inflation expectations. Kao warns that many downstream inflationary effects, especially in food and petrochemicals, have yet to fully materialize. He believes the Federal Reserve is effectively "boxed," with no good case for either cutting rates and stoking inflation or hiking into a supply shock that is already hurting consumers. Despite the short-term turmoil, Kao remains optimistic that powerful secular deflationary forces from AI will ultimately reassert themselves. He cited staggering examples of AI-driven efficiency that could anchor long-term growth.

For positioning, he personally seeks safety in diversified, uncorrelated streams of passive income from assets like oil and gas private equity and idiosyncratic credit, avoiding a traditional passive beta approach. His parting thought highlighted the modern "fog of war," where deliberate obfuscation makes it crucial to watch market clues for what is truly transpiring beneath the geopolitical chaos.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:01:05 - Defining Macro Scenarios
00:07:40 - Iran War Macro Impact
00:10:22 - Tariffs and Demand Elasticity
00:16:16 - Macro Indicators Overview
00:21:25 - Consumer and Housing Metrics
00:23:30 - PPI CPI and Data Trust
00:27:38 - Federal Reserve Roundtable
00:31:36 - Goldilocks Scenario Outlook
00:35:53 - Oil Demand Destruction Risks
00:42:18 - Fed Rate Policy Challenges
00:46:07 - AI Productivity Boom
00:52:55 - Investment Positioning Strategy
00:56:06 - Urban Kaoberg Project
01:03:00 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Michael Kao — Private Family Office Investor & Author - Former Hedge Fund Manager & Commodities Trader
Michael Kao is a seasoned investor and retired portfolio manager with 25 years of experience in commodities trading and hedge fund management. He has a lifelong passion for the markets and a keen interest in geopolitics, which has lead him to manage his own investments and publish his views on his SubStack Website – Kaoboy Musings.

Known for his out of consensus calls that often wind up becoming consensus later on, Michael Kao strives to cut through the noise in his musings by introducing mental models from other disciplines and injecting ideas from eclectic topics. He aims to educate, encourage out-of-the-box thinking, elevate above the noise and entertain.
X Substack New Platform


📈 The Competent Investor
Markets, macro, and the minds that move money.

Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.
RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.
Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.
X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.
YouTube — Full video episodes.

Francis Hunt, founder of The Market Sniper, presents a technical analysis centered on South Korea as a potential early indicator of a coming AI bubble deflation. He highlights the KOSPI index's extreme 291% surge in just over a year, driven almost entirely by two chip-making giants, Samsung and SK Hynix, which now constitute roughly 50% of the market. This narrow, unsustainable rally is occurring simultaneously with a critical divergence: foreign professional money is flowing out of South Korean equities, while the void is being filled by a massive surge in domestic retail margin debt. This setup, he argues, makes the market acutely vulnerable. The core of his thesis rests on the Korean won, which he predicts faces a 50% contagion collapse against the US dollar.

Hunt explains that historically, a strengthening won accompanied equity inflows, but the currency has recently begun weakening despite record sales from its chip champions. This breakdown in correlation signals that when the AI tide recedes, the currency could enter a crisis, potentially triggering a broader high-tech Asian contagion.

He notes that a similar vulnerability exists in Japan, whose equity boom he also predicted, though he sees Japan as less narrowly concentrated in AI. Hunt foresees a destructive bust cycle characterized by forced selling, rising unemployment, and a hollowing of the middle class, which could pave the way for increased social division and centralized control mechanisms like UBI and CBDCs. He criticizes the passive investing complex, arguing that the upcoming SpaceX IPO is structured to provide exit liquidity for early investors by compelling ETFs to buy the stock, effectively socializing potential losses onto retail pensions. To navigate this environment, he advises a retreat from overvalued tech, advocating for capital preservation in hard assets like gold and silver. He emphasizes that dispassionate chart analysis remains the most reliable source of truth, with the current setup offering significant opportunities for currency trades and options during major stock market corrections.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:16 - South Korea Market Opportunity
00:07:08 - Currency Collapse Warning
00:11:15 - Foreign Investment Withdrawal
00:15:01 - USD KRW Chart Review
00:18:14 - Japan Market Comparison
00:21:59 - AI Bubble Deflation Signs
00:25:22 - Economic/AI Bust Scenarios
00:29:50 - Middle Class and Passive Risks
00:36:50 - Market Outlook and Advice
00:41:16 - Inflation & Energy Demand
00:45:35 - Gold, Liquidity, & India
00:51:38 - Accurate Info & Wrap Up

Guest:

Francis Hunt — Renegade Trader, Analyst, & Founder of The Market Sniper
Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade?

He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis.

Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals.

He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus, teaching strengthens his trading abilities while helping to build a vibrant community of successful traders.
X X Website YouTube


📈 The Competent Investor
Markets, macro, and the minds that move money.

Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.
RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.
Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.
X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.
YouTube — Full video episodes.

Kevin Muir expresses deep skepticism about the looming SpaceX IPO, suggesting its astronomical valuation could mark a peak in market enthusiasm, reminiscent of the AOL-Time Warner deal. Beyond sentiment, the sheer supply of new stock from major IPOs like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will require capital that must come from selling other assets. This comes as institutional cash levels are near record lows and corporate buybacks, historically a key source of stock demand, are shrinking because tech giants are redirecting cash flow into AI infrastructure.

Muir believes stock market weakness could arrive before the IPO date as investors sell to make room, and he highlights the dangerous disconnect in the equity risk premium. With bond yields now exceeding the earnings yield of stocks, long-term return models are flashing warnings, even as short-term momentum persists. He analyzes the current market through his concept of "rolling mini bubbles," where speculative manias in sectors like silver, EVs, and now semiconductors inflate and deflate cyclically. Rather than fighting these bubbles, he argues for identifying and riding the next one, pointing to agriculture as a candidate.

The AI boom faces acute skepticism. Muir suspects the recent surge in GPU usage is artificially driven by companies mandating AI adoption and may not represent durable demand. He warns that the massive capital expenditure and circular profit dynamics among tech giants create a fragile, self-reinforcing feedback loop, with concentration risk dangerously high in a handful of stocks. On geopolitics, he sees energy and defense spending as a long-term inflationary force, yet remains bullish on Japan due to its cheap currency and vast domestic savings. On gold, he dismisses the old correlation with real yields, arguing that sustained Chinese diversification away from US assets will drive the next leg higher, with the recent pullback presenting a buying opportunity.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:55 - SpaceX IPO Overvaluation
00:02:06 - Potential Market Peak
00:03:40 - Increased Stock/Equity Supply
00:05:23 - AI Spending Replacing Buybacks
00:10:13 - Equity Risk Premium Discussion
00:14:38 - Market Seasonality Analysis
00:16:35 - Mini Rolling Bubbles
00:24:08 - Fed's Role in Markets
00:27:10 - Kevin Warsh Criticism
00:34:00 - Current Fed Policy Stance
00:41:28 - AI Boom and Risks
00:59:24 - Japan Market Outlook
01:05:06 - Gold Investment Perspective
01:09:00 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Kevin Muir — Publisher of The Macro Tourist Newsletter & Co-Host of The Market Huddle
Kevin Muir started as an institutional equity derivative trader for a big Canadian bank in the 1990s. In 2000, Kevin decided that bank-life wasn't for him, so he traded his own account for the next two decades. Along the way, he started writing the MacroTourist newsletter, which he describes as an "almost daily" letter about the markets that still manages to have fun. The MacroTourist newsletter attempts to bring a unique take on a variety of different financial topics. Kevin's tagline is, "All I Bring to the Party is 25 Years of Mistakes."

Kevin Muir is a CFA and a graduate of the University of Toronto economics program.
X Website Substack Podcast E-Mail


📈 The Competent Investor
Markets, macro, and the minds that move money.

Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.
RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.
Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.
X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.
YouTube — Full video episodes.

Michael Pento, President of Pento Portfolio Strategies, identifies a dangerous "triumvirate of bubbles" in credit, real estate, and equities as the most precarious factor facing markets. He argues that every credible metric, from total debt-to-GDP to home price-to-income and stock market capitalization-to-GDP ratios, is at an all-time record high. This extreme overvaluation has been sustained by aggressive Federal Reserve money printing and interest rate repression under Chair Jerome Powell, which Pento blames for destroying the middle class's purchasing power and creating a massive wealth disparity between asset owners and wage earners.

Pento sees the 40-year bull market in bonds as definitively over, with yields rising globally due to an intractable inflation problem and a sovereign debt insolvency issue. He notes that foreign demand for U.S. debt is waning due to sanctions and reduced trade, removing a key anchor for yields. This environment, he warns, makes double-digit bond yields a realistic possibility, which would devastate overleveraged credit markets, stocks, and real estate. He predicts the credit bubble will break first, with stress in private credit and junk bonds spilling over into equities and housing. While he hopes new Fed leadership might engineer a cathartic recession by shrinking the balance sheet, he doubts the political will exists to endure the necessary pain.

Pento’s investment model currently positions for a reflationary to stagflationary environment, favoring short-duration bonds, commodities, and energy while reducing gold exposure. He cautions investors to abandon traditional 60/40 portfolios, as both stocks and bonds could decline simultaneously, and stresses the critical need for active management in these historically overvalued and fragile markets.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:23 - Triumvirate of Market Bubbles
00:01:58 - Federal Reserve QE and Powell
00:03:18 - Inflation and Middle Class Destruction
00:05:25 - Kevin Worsh and Fed Balance Sheet
00:06:24 - Interest Rate Repression and Debt
00:11:28 - Rising Global Yields and Risks
00:14:27 - Double-Digit Rates Possibility
00:16:28 - Credit Bubble & Recession
00:23:52 - Investment Strategy and Positioning
00:27:48 - US Mid-Term Election
00:32:35 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest:

Michael Pento — President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies
Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies with more than 30 years of professional investment experience. He worked on the floor of the NYSE during the mid-90s. Pento served as an economist for both Delta Global and EuroPacific Capital. He was also the portfolio creator and consultant to Delta/Claymore's commodity portfolios, which were distributed through Claymore/Guggenheim's sales network.
Website E-Mail X


📈 The Competent Investor
Markets, macro, and the minds that move money.

Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.
RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.
Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.
X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.
YouTube — Full video episodes.

Doomberg analyzes the accelerating convergence of global crises, framing the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East as battles within a broader World War III that began in 2014. He argues these conflicts are catalysts revealing the fragility of a late-stage US dollar-centric financial system, where Western sovereign debts have reached mathematically unsustainable levels. The recent strategic pact between Russia and China to advance a multi-polar framework is seen as a historic step toward de-dollarization, punishing the US for abusing its financial chokehold. Doomberg notes that paradoxically, heavily sanctioned nations like Iran and Russia have built resiliency that will serve them well when the current system collapses, as major Western currencies and bonds are all correlated proxies destined to fail together.

Regarding the energy shock from the Strait of Hormuz closure, Doomberg admits his earlier prediction of $150 oil was wrong, attributing the muted price response to a massive inventory overhang and deceptive market practices in 2025 that are now being burned off at higher prices. The near-term threat remains a full-blown regional war that could cause an uninsulated global depression, though the long-run outlook for commodity prices is lower due to supply responses. The current ceasefire is viewed as a necessity for the US and Israel, given missile shortages and Iran's credible ability to devastate Gulf energy infrastructure that remains defenseless.

Shifting to Canada, Doomberg expresses optimism that political roadblocks to energy exports are clearing, predicting Mark Carney will succeed in building a pipeline to unlock Alberta's vast resources, analogous to Nixon going to China. He dismisses Canadian insolvency fears given its immense per-capita resource base. Finally, he underscores his analytical method of deliberately seeking and grading a wide spectrum of global propaganda to construct a more predictive, holistic view of world events.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:52 - Sovereign Debt Crisis Catalyst
00:04:53 - Global Yields and Japan
00:07:30 - Sanctioned Countries Resiliency
00:08:57 - Energy Shock Impacts
00:10:30 - Medium-Term Optimism Outlook
00:16:44 - Religious War Undertones
00:19:20 - Congressional War Constraints
00:21:33 - Oil Price Predictions Reviewed
00:26:11 - Canada Energy & Resources
00:34:45 - News Flow & Information
00:40:32 - China & Trump's Claims
00:49:52 - Foreign Policy Whiplash
00:53:17 - Energy & Datacenters
00:57:19 - Wrap Up

Guest:

Doomberg — Head Writer For The Doomberg Team and Creator of the Doomberg Substack
Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems.
Substack X Website


📈 The Competent Investor
Markets, macro, and the minds that move money.

Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.
RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.
Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.
X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.
YouTube — Full video episodes.

Tony Greer, trader, editor of 'The Morning Navigator', and co-founder of 'The Macrodirt Podcast', joined Tom Bodrovics to share a trader’s perspective on navigating today’s chaotic markets. Greer emphasized a core philosophy: “Don’t worry about being right, worry about getting it right,” prioritizing P&L over ego and reacting flexibly to new information. He views the brewing energy crisis from the Strait of Hormuz closure as a significant, underappreciated risk, markets may only wake up when tangible shortages hit personal convenience, not through forward-looking pricing. While oil charts remain constructive and he expects high prices for longer, political distractions and Trump’s headlines create confusion, though many are noise to be canceled.

Greer sees a potential replay of 2022 with headline inflation is re-emerging, as seen in recent CPI and PPI prints, which could pressure tech and growth stocks while benefiting hard assets and value. He is positioned long energy, oil services, gold, and miners, noting that gold miners’ sell-off defies their record margins and cheap valuations, making them compelling buys even if they shake out weak hands first. Technology’s AI bubble appears extended, and while he’d short a parabolic blow-off top, he remains nimble, as illustrated by his prepared exit from homebuilders when rates rose. The dollar and yields serve as guides, not trades unto themselves.

Beyond markets, Greer reflected on his inaugural TG Macro conference, finding the deep human need for personal connection its greatest lesson. The event’s sentiment marker—broad consensus to own gold and miners—later proved a contrarian signal, a reminder of crowd psychology. He plans a second conference in Nashville for February 18–19, 2027, with a rotating mix of speakers. Greer stressed the restorative power of analog activities—cooking, guitar, family—and urged listeners to unplug, shake hands, and foster real connection, a balance essential in the digital age.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:01:12 - Trading Mindset and Flexibility
00:03:28 - Global Energy Crisis Concerns
00:06:40 - Trump Policies and Markets
00:10:10 - Oil Charts and Planning
00:14:20 - Gold Miners Outlook
00:18:24 - Energy Sector Positioning
00:27:30 - Trading & Positioning Shorts
00:30:15 - CPI, Fed, Dollar and Rates
00:35:00 - Morning Market Analysis Routine
00:38:20 - Conference Reflections
00:42:30 - AI & Wrap Up

Guest:

Tony Greer — Trader, Editor of 'The Morning Navigator', and Co-Founder of 'The Macrodirt Podcast'
After graduating from Cornell University in 1990 Tony followed in his father’s footsteps to a Wall Street trading operation. He quickly learned his career path would be vastly different. He says, "I would not be sitting in the same seat on the same trading desk managing the same risk for the same firm for over 30 years."

We have clearly entered a new era in financial markets.

He began in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank on the 107th floor of the World Trade Center downtown Manhattan. Tony was an FX trading assistant while the Quantum Fund was breaking the Bank of England in 1992.

In 1993 he joined Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader, spending half a year as a Vice President in their Zurich treasury department. Then returned to New York City early in 1995 to join J. Aron & Company, the privately held commodity trading arm of Goldman Sachs.

He managed risk for the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, in precious and base metals trading, and futures and options trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

He started his first venture in 2000 – Machine Trading which happened right before the tech bubble burst. That decision was his first excruciating life lesson in market timing. It turned out to be an extremely valuable learning experience.

He believes there is a massive opportunity with both the unprecedented situation in global markets and in the way financial news is consumed. In 2016, he started TG Macro, LLC.
Conference Website X Substack YouTube


📈 The Competent Investor
Markets, macro, and the minds that move money.

Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.
RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.
Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.
X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.
YouTube — Full video episodes.