Welcome to the 2025 predictions REVIEW! Audio above and written post below.

Happy New Year!

This post will look at what I said would happen in 2025, as well as a scoring system for those predictions.

Spoiler alert - Just like the NY Jets, I didn’t exactly excel in 2025.

Before we crack on, just a reminder that the 6 ‘crazy?’ predictions for 2026 post and audio can be accessed below.

Back to the 2025 review and the predictions from 2nd January 2025 are below.

2025 predictions REVIEW!

I will give one point to myself for every correct answer and half a point if the prediction has partially been successful.

1 - Gold to top $3,000 and then sell off back down to $2,200

The thought process behind this was that there would be a worldwide recession that would make 1929 look like a walk in the park. That did not materialise and so the latter part of this prediction now looks a bit silly.

Gold certainly topped $3,000, dipped below it very briefly in April and it never looked back!

Result = 0.5 points

2 - Worldwide recession which might be worse than 1929

April 2025 and ‘Liberation Day’ could have been the start of something gnarly, but some swift back peddling by the current US Administration meant that the markets saw a swift rebound and more than perfect V shaped recovery,

Onwards and upwards was the theme from April 7th!

Result = 0 points

3 - Keir Starmer to be ousted as Prime Minister

Many people would have liked to have seen this happen, and I am sure that many people would still like to see this happen.

Despite a plethora of mistakes and mind-boggling decisions, he is still Prime Minister.

Result = 0 points

4 - Oil to drop down to $50 a barrel (Brent Crude)

The idea for this was tied into a worldwide recession. This did not materialise, but Brent Crude has had a very poor year none the less.

I think that Oil is setting up for a potentially huge couple of years ahead!

Result = 0 points

5 - Bank of England base rate down to 4% and inflation to creep up again

Reducing rates whilst in the midst of an inflationary environment is NOT a good idea. That being said, I am not a central bank! The Bank of England base rate started 2025 at 4.50% and finished the year at 3.75%.

The annual inflation rate for the UK was 3.5% in November 2025 and have put a couple of links below.

CPIH ANNUAL RATE 00: ALL ITEMS 2015=100 - Office for National Statistics

Consumer price inflation, UK - Office for National Statistics

Result = 1 point

6 - A new international monetary system will be officially announced

BRICS rumblings were here and there throughout 2025, but no new international monetary system was officially announced as far as I’m concerned.

On BRICS, and they made massive strides in 2025 by completing their supply and payment chains and thus pushing metals pricing power eastwards. You can read more about that here.

Result = 0 points

Overall = 1.5 points out of 6 points available

Better luck in 2026!

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Welcome to the Monthly Wrap for December 2025, featuring The Contrarian Capitalist and LiveSquawk Commodity Corner.

A Happy Christmas and a Happy New Year!

5 small bits of housekeeping

* This video was recorded AM on 31st December 2025

* There is no full chart deck today

* Please do provide feedback by leaving a comment below or sending one of us a DM. We want to make sure that you are getting what you want!

* NB - No…

Welcome to the 2026 Contrarian Capitalist predictions post and audio. The written predictions are below, and the audio is above.

2026 will certainly be an interesting year to say the least! A lot will happen and there will very likely be increased volatility worldwide.

NB - Gold and Silver calculations done after market close on Friday 26th December 2025

2026 Predictions

1 - Gold to reach at least $7,828 an ounce

Gold has been on a relatively explosive run since 2024, and I don’t see any sign of this slowing down into 2026. A potential revaluing (see below) would further add pressure to the gold price.

In simple terms though, if you believe the value of your fiat currency is going to go down, then the price of gold will go to the upside.

I’ve used $4,532 as the baseline number and a 72.72% increase as the barometer as this was where gold was at the close of play on Friday 26th December 2025. I’ve then rounded it up to the nearest whole number.

2 - Silver to reach at least $218 an ounce

The metal darling of 2025 will continue to strike whilst the iron is hot. There is a lot of room to run here in Silver, and I think that it will smash through triple digits ($100) before continuing to march higher.

I’ve used $79.32 as the baseline number and a 174.62% increase as the barometer as this was where silver was at the close of play on Friday 26th December 2025. I’ve then rounded it up to the nearest whole number.

3 - WTI to drop to $45 before finishing the year higher than $80

There is a big bear narrative out there and this will feed into the hands of those that are paying attention.

There is likely more room to run to the downside in the short term for Oil, thus catching contrarians off guard.

Mid-term elections combined with a potential ‘behind closed doors’ oil deal between President Trump and the Saudi’s likely means that Oils upside could be limited.

Once the mid-terms are done then I expect to see a spike to the upside.

We’ve not even begun to touch on any other possible ‘geopolitical news’ either!

4 - 250th 4th July celebrations will see a major monetary reset, or something pegged against the dollar. Maybe revaluing of gold? Something along those lines.

Something monetary wise is lined up for 4th July 2026! I’m not 100% what it is but I expect it to be announced on 4th July 2026.

5 - Democrats to take back the house AND senate in the mid-terms

This is more of a Contrarian hunch and the democrats taking back both the house and senate would have major ramifications for the USA (and the world) moving forwards.

6 - Brazil will win the world cup

As much as I’d love to say England here, I’m working on the basis that a European team has never won the World Cup when it has been hosted in North America (Brazil won in Mexico 1970 and USA 1994, Argentina won in Mexico 1986).

Therefore, I will plump with Brazil to win the World Cup in 2026.

Bonus Prediction

This is reverse psychology at play here. The New York Jets will NOT make the playoffs in the 2026 NFL season.

What do you think will happen in 2026? What predictions do you have? Leave a comment below!

Welcome to Mid-Week Macro for Wednesday 24th December 2025.

Protect your wealth. Defend your freedom. Outsmart the system.

This post and video are FREE for everyone.

There will NOT be a Mid-Week Macro on Wednesday 31st December 2025. This is because Chris Stadele of LiveSquawk Commodity Corner and I will be recording the end of month (and year) macro.

NB - Substack live cut off the first few minutes of the recording last week, hence why the first minute or so is a bit slow on this video. Hopefully it all works out.

Become a paid subscriber and get early access to expert interview podcast as well as access to the Friday Commodity Wrap, Sunday Market Wrap and much more. Starting at just $9.17 per month, it’s exceptional value to protect your wealth, defend your freedom, and outsmart the system.

Mid-week Polymarket market

Thank you Polymarket for working in partnership with The Contrarian Capitalist. You can connect with Polymarket on Substack!

Something different this week as we look at the Super Bowl Champion odds for the game on 8th February 2026. My team (New York Jets) don’t believe in playoff football.

I said to a friend at the start of the season that the Green Bay Packers will win the Super Bowl. Due to injuries, I am not convinced that that will happen. My sneaky pick would be the San Francisco 49ers (7% chance). This is because the Superb Bowl will be in their home stadium and they are just playing good solid ball!

Podcasts & Posts

News Links

This has been making me laugh much more than it should be!

Still, it could be worse

And a Christmas classic won’t be quite the same this year

2-Hour Private Strategy Call with The Contrarian Capitalist

A focused two-hour session covering anything you want, including commodities, macro, Plan B strategies, residency, property, precious metals or geopolitics. You set the agenda and get clear, actionable guidance.

$147, valid until 31st Dec 2025

PAID SUBS GET A DISCOUNT (behind the paywall in the Friday Commodity Wrap)

NB - I am not a financial advisor

Thank you Rob Burke, Garry B Lindboe, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.

Today’s episode features Giacomo Prandelli of the popular The Merchant's News newsletter on Substack. Giacomo Prandelli is a commodity analyst and geopolitical strategist who connects energy market movements with global events.

AUDIO IS AVAILABLE HERE

Please LIKE, SHARE AND SUBSCRIBE TO THE CONTRARIAN CAPITALIST

NB - Recorded on Wednesday 17th December AM

The following topics are covered:

* The short, medium and long-term outlook for Oil

* Venezuela. From sanctions to opportunity!

* Maduro. Trump. Where the political game stands now

* Why Venezuela’s heavy crude still matters so much for US Gulf Coast refineries

* The importance of the news headlines and why we should be focused on the fundamentals

* Russia. Ukraine and the shadow fleet

* How the sanctions architecture actually works in practice

* Shadow fleet mechanics. STS transfers. opaque ownership. price cap leakage

* What could realistically tighten the screws and what that would do to crude and products flows

* Guyana. the new offshore oil frontier

* Exxon’s dominance so far, and the entry of other players

* How Guyana changes the Atlantic Basin balance vs Brazil. US Gulf. West Africa

* Key risks & potential border tensions with Venezuela

* Europe’s gas and LNG outlook

* How dependent Europe now is on US LNG. and how stable that flow really is

* General EU Nat Gas dynamics

* Is Colombia next?

Map showing the south of the USA and the shipping channel to South America

Example of recent news - Trump orders ‘blockade’ of sanctioned oil tankers leaving, entering Venezuela | Reuters

Contact Information

You can connect with Giacomo Prandelli on Substack at The Merchant's News, and also on X and LinkedIn.

2 recent articles to check out are:

ALL interview podcasts are released to PAID SUBSCRIBERS first.

Take control of your financial future with The Contrarian Capitalist. Paid members get commodity and market insights, exclusive macro videos, early interviews, and the tools to build, protect, and grow wealth in uncertain times.

Starting at just $9.17 per month (less than a couple of coffees), it’s exceptional value to protect your wealth, defend your freedom and outsmart the system.

Thank you for being part of The Contrarian Capitalist community!

Welcome to Mid-Week Macro for Wednesday 17th December 2025.

Protect your wealth. Defend your freedom. Outsmart the system.

This post and video are FREE for everyone.

There WILL be a Mid-Week Macro on Wednesday 24th December 2025.

NB - Substack live has seemingly cut off the first few minutes of the recording. Apologies for that. The first few minutes looked at the variety of recordings and posts on CC this week. These links are further on below.

Become a paid subscriber and get early access to expert interview podcast as well as access to the Friday Commodity Wrap, Sunday Market Wrap and much more. Starting at just $9.17 per month, it’s exceptional value to protect your wealth, defend your freedom, and outsmart the system.

Mid-week Polymarket market

Thank you Polymarket for working in partnership with The Contrarian Capitalist. You can connect with Polymarket on Substack!

Even with the weak jobs data, there is currently a 77% chance of ‘‘no change’’ to the Fed rate come January. This seems about right to me at the time of writing.

Podcasts & Posts

2 excellent guest posts that are worth reading (and they are free) are from Guardian Research….

And Tom Bradshaw….

Giacomo Prandelli from The Merchant's News outlined his short, medium and long-term price targets for Oil.

News Links

Bank of Japan expected to hike rates to 30-year high

Bank of England poised for Christmas interest rate cut after inflation slows

Trump is good news for Nato, Mark Rutte tells BBC - Is it really?

On the other hand…..

Weak Hiring Data Underscore Fed’s Room to Manoeuvre

WTI Holds ‘Venezuela Blockade’ Gains After Small Crude Draw, Record US Production

2-Hour Private Strategy Call with The Contrarian Capitalist

A focused two-hour session covering anything you want, including commodities, macro, Plan B strategies, residency, property, precious metals or geopolitics. You set the agenda and get clear, actionable guidance.

$147, valid until 31st Dec 2025

PAID SUBS GET A DISCOUNT (behind the paywall in the Friday Commodity Wrap)

NB - I am not a financial advisor

Welcome to Mid-Month Macro with Chris Stadele of LiveSquawk Commodity Corner

As per usual, there is a LOT to talk about!

5 small bits of housekeeping

* None of this is to be constituted as investment or trading advice. We are NOT financial advisors.

* This video was recorded just after 09:00 ET on Monday 15th December

* The Monthly Wrap for December will be recorded on 31st December 2025

* Please continue to provide feedback as it helps us to continue to provide as much value to you as possible

* Please subscribe to both The Contrarian Capitalist and LiveSquawk Commodity Corner using the buttons below

Charts looked at today include Gold, Silver, Copper, Palladium, Platinum, VIX, DXY, S&P, NASDAQ and WTI Oil.

NB - Apologies for the charting issues with TradingView today.

The Macro Turning Point Most Investors Are Missing

Today’s podcast guest is Adam Rozencwajg.

Adam Rozencwajg is the Co-Founder and Managing Partner of Goehring & Rozencwajg (G&R), a leading natural resource investment firm headquartered in New York City.

With nearly two decades of experience in commodity and natural resource investing, Mr. Rozencwajg is widely regarded as an authority in the field, known for his contrarian deep-value approach and rigorous, original research across long-term commodity cycles.

AUDIO IS AVAILABLE HERE

Please LIKE, SHARE AND SUBSCRIBE TO THE CONTRARIAN CAPITALIST

NB - Recorded on Thursday 11th December AM

In this wide-ranging podcast, Adam A. Rozencwajg discusses:

* The carry cycle and its correlation with commodities

* Whether Gold is currently cheap or expensive

* The Gold to Oil ratio and what its current level tells us

* Is oil supply being overstated?

* Demand and land factors affecting oil

* Why there is still some potential room to run in coal

* Copper outlook

* What Silver is telling us at the moment

* And much more

Contact Information

You can download the excellent Q3 Commentary by visiting https://www.gorozen.com/commentaries/2025-q3

Goehring & Rozencwajg manages a global, long-only natural resource strategy designed to provide broad, diversified exposure to the full natural resource complex. The firm is distinguished by its original research, decades of sector expertise, and long-term track record across multiple market cycles.

ALL interview podcasts are released to PAID SUBSCRIBERS first.

Take control of your financial future with The Contrarian Capitalist. Paid members get commodity and market insights, exclusive macro videos, early interviews, and the tools to build, protect, and grow wealth in uncertain times.

Starting at just $9.17 per month (less than a couple of coffees), it’s exceptional value to protect your wealth, defend your freedom and outsmart the system.

Thank you for being part of The Contrarian Capitalist community!

Today’s podcast guest is Trader Ferg, a true Contrarian who has been a ‘‘Full-time trader for 9 years’’ and who has a ‘‘habit of hanging out in hated corners of the market that are uninvestable".

AUDIO IS AVAILABLE HERE

Please LIKE, SHARE AND SUBSCRIBE TO THE CONTRARIAN CAPITALIST

NB - Recorded on Tuesday 9th December PM. Many companies and ETF’s are mentioned throughout the recording. These are not to be taken as financial advice/recommendations. Always do your own homework and manage risk properly. We are not financial advisors.

In this wide-ranging podcast, Ferg discusses:

* 2 Tin companies worth keeping an eye on

* Supply dynamics for Platinum, Palladium, Rhodium and Copper

* Why the future is bright for PGMs but not necessarily Copper

* How to potentially profit from oil services moving forwards

* Why getting out of USD exposure could be wise moving forwards

* Quasi Exchanges

* And much more

Contact Information & Previous Recordings

You can find Trader Ferg on Substack and X.

You can listen to our previous conversation below.

Three must read articles from Ferg include:

The Platinum Stock Supply Crisis by Dr. David Davis - Auctus Metals: Expert Precious Metal Portfolio Management Services

ALL interview podcasts are released to PAID SUBSCRIBERS first.

Take control of your financial future with The Contrarian Capitalist. Paid members get commodity and market insights, exclusive macro videos, early interviews, and the tools to build, protect, and grow wealth in uncertain times.

Starting at just $9.17 per month (less than a couple of coffees), it’s exceptional value to protect your wealth, defend your freedom and outsmart the system.

Thank you for being part of The Contrarian Capitalist community!

Welcome to Mid-Week Macro for Wednesday 10th December 2025.

Protect your wealth. Defend your freedom. Outsmart the system.

This post and video are FREE for everyone.

Take control of your financial future with The Contrarian Capitalist. Paid members get commodity and market insights, exclusive macro videos, early interviews, and the tools to build, protect, and grow wealth in uncertain times.

Starting at just $9.17 per month (less than a couple of coffees), it’s exceptional value to protect your wealth, defend your freedom and outsmart the system.

Thank you for being part of The Contrarian Capitalist community!

Mid-week Polymarket market

Given that the Fed just cut rates by 25bps, it is no surprise to see that Polymarket has the odds of ‘no rate cut’ in January 2026 at 81%. I would have it a bit higher but that could depend on that delayed jobs report, which is due out on 16th December.

Thank you Polymarket for working in partnership with The Contrarian Capitalist. You can connect with Polymarket on Substack!

Podcasts/Posts/News Links

$60 SILVER IS HERE

US could ask tourists for five-year social media history before entry

“Bud Light” Moment Hits Cracker Barrel: Stock Crushed, Traffic Slides, Guidance Slashed

Deep Discounts Tempt Indian Refiners To Seek Non-Sanctioned Russian Oil

2-Hour Private Strategy Call with The Contrarian Capitalist

More and more people are asking for 1 on 1 calls to discuss a plethora of topics. I’ve now created a 2-hour private call with myself; the button below is also at a special price of just $147, valid until 31st Dec 2025.

A focused two-hour session covering anything you want, including commodities, macro, Plan B strategies, residency, property, precious metals or geopolitics. You set the agenda and get clear, actionable guidance.

NB - I am not a financial advisor and PAID SUBS GET A DISCOUNT (behind the paywall)

Thank you Tom Weiss, Dana, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.