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The CRE Recovery Is Only Half True | Ep 30
Powered by HqO - Learn more and join the Quantum City Initiative here: https://www.hqo.com/the-future-of-cities-begins-now/
120 million square feet leased in Q1 2026. Best quarter in a decade. First time since before the pandemic that volume cleared its historical average.
So why does Class B still feel like a completely different market?
AI firms are signing massive leases. Trophy assets are doing fine. The best buildings in the best markets are printing record quarters. But Class B is staring at a debt wall that doesn't care about good headlines. CMBS delinquencies are above 5%. The loans coming due in the next 18 months aren't going to refinance themselves. And the Fed just got a new chair who made it very clear he's not cutting rates to make anyone feel better.
Meanwhile Dubai just launched a $5.6 billion metro line, 100 driverless taxis, air taxis with a six year exclusivity deal, and The Boring Company is breaking ground on the loop. Their stated goal is 80% of daily destinations reachable within 20 minutes. They're not debating it. They're building it. And while we argue about everything else, they're directly connecting infrastructure to GDP output and nobody in the US seems to care.
The real story right now isn't whether CRE is recovering. It's who the recovery is actually for.
In this episode:
Sponsored by HqO - the leading tenant experience platform for commercial real estate.
TIMESTAMPS:
View all episodes
By HqOPowered by HqO - Learn more and join the Quantum City Initiative here: https://www.hqo.com/the-future-of-cities-begins-now/
120 million square feet leased in Q1 2026. Best quarter in a decade. First time since before the pandemic that volume cleared its historical average.
So why does Class B still feel like a completely different market?
AI firms are signing massive leases. Trophy assets are doing fine. The best buildings in the best markets are printing record quarters. But Class B is staring at a debt wall that doesn't care about good headlines. CMBS delinquencies are above 5%. The loans coming due in the next 18 months aren't going to refinance themselves. And the Fed just got a new chair who made it very clear he's not cutting rates to make anyone feel better.
Meanwhile Dubai just launched a $5.6 billion metro line, 100 driverless taxis, air taxis with a six year exclusivity deal, and The Boring Company is breaking ground on the loop. Their stated goal is 80% of daily destinations reachable within 20 minutes. They're not debating it. They're building it. And while we argue about everything else, they're directly connecting infrastructure to GDP output and nobody in the US seems to care.
The real story right now isn't whether CRE is recovering. It's who the recovery is actually for.
In this episode:
Sponsored by HqO - the leading tenant experience platform for commercial real estate.
TIMESTAMPS: