Contributor(s): Professor Paul Collier | The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which track poverty among 5 billion people, miss the key future challenge for development policy. This is that around 50 countries, now at the bottom of the world economy, are economically stagnant and so are diverging from the rest of mankind at an accelerating rate. The lecture analyzes why these countries, with around a billion people, are diverging - why globalization generates both convergence for most of the developing world and divergence at the bottom. Based on this diagnosis of the problems, it shows why the current approach of the G8 is liable to fail, and how a more serious and broadly based set of policies could be radically more effective.