In case you weren’t depressed enough by the recent cold weather, icy roadways, loss of electricity and drinking water issues, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists just released its 2026 Doomsday Clock on Tuesday.

This group of global Brainiacs said that the world’s destruction is now just 85 seconds away.  It has moved four seconds closer than the 89 seconds it was a year ago.

The scientists’ symbolic Doomsday Clock has been around since 1947 after World War II ended.  This pessimistic bunch cited “hard-won global understandings are collapsing, accelerating a winner-takes-all power competition and undermining international cooperation.”

Nuclear wars, climate change, misuse of biotechnology, and, newly added, the rapid development of artificial intelligence are now leading the concerns expressed by the worldwide group of scientists.

Don’t panic – yet.   Most of us have succeeded in living productive lives for decades despite these looming ominous threats.

But what about college sports?

People on the left and right side of the political aisle may disagree about the urgency of the threats mentioned by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.

Both sides are likely to agree that America’s longtime college sports environment has been undergoing seismic changes in recent years.  The tectonic plates which have long supported college athletics have been shifting around faster than the San Andreas fault.

College sports began as a way to develop friendly athletic competitions between regional colleges and universities.

A rowing competition in August, 1852 between Harvard and Yale was considered the first official intercollegiate sporting match.

The Harvard Crimson won “The Race” which covered two miles.  The Yale Bulldogs finally broke into the winner’s column in the fourth annual race.

Harvard still leads the series 97-60, but Yale has been victorious in seven of the last ten matches.

The evolution of athletic conferences

Other colleges and universities quickly saw the benefit from developing annual sporting competitions with nearby regional schools.

The Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Association (SIAA) originated in 1892.  This group would eventually spin-off today’s Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) and the Southeastern Conference (SEC).

The Western Conference (1896) became the predecessor for today’s Big Ten Conference.

Remember the “Big 8” Conference?  It began in 1907 and has evolved into today’s Big 12.   A west coast group of schools called the Pacific Coast Conference began a sports affiliation in 1915 which later morphed into the Pac-12.

Dozens of other conference affiliations began around the country for larger and smaller colleges and universities – primarily based on regional proximity.

From 1900-2000, the “new” NCAA was (generally) able to manage college athletics

For most of the 20th century, the number of college athletic conferences continued to grow and evolve.

The larger schools had enough money to construct significant facilities dedicated to football, basketball, and other sports to entice the top student-athletes.  The “major” schools generally remained in geographically-friendly conferences to minimize travel costs and classroom interruptions for student-athletes.

Mid-majors and smaller schools found alignments with regional rivals of similar school size and interests.

The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) began in 1906.  It was intended to establish rules ensuring fair play for intercollegiate sports and protection of the competing athletes.

The NCAA eventually divided colleges into the scholarship-driven Division I and Division II groups plus the non-athletic scholarship Division III.  Each division features its own national championship competitions in most sports.

Many athletes attend college to refine their skills in hopes of quickly turning pro

The term “student-athlete” has been used in connotation with college athletics for much of the last century.

Athletic scholarships have been provided to talented sports participants.  It included the value of school tuition, room, and board in return for the student’s athletic participation.  This relatively small portion of the student population was expected to maintain close to a “C” grade point average in order to retain their scholarship from year to year.

As expected, marginally qualified academic performers in high school started being recruited by some colleges for their athletic abilities.

These weaker college students started being shuffled into “Beginner Basket Weaving” (just kidding – maybe) and less strenuous academic classes to keep them eligible for sports participation.

The pro football’s NFL requires prospective players to be at least three years removed from high school.  College football has developed as the primary conduit necessary for players who dream of donning an NFL uniform some day.

The term “one and done” refers to the NBA’s minimal requirement that future pro basketball players must be one year removed from high school.  That’s why most of your favorite freshman college basketball stars vanish every spring.

The women’s WNBA currently requires future US players to be age 22.  Expect that to be challenged in courts and changed soon.

This explains why many of today’s major college football and men’s basketball players only want to stick around for the bare minimum of time.

What a surprise!  Disputes over cheating became more frequent

NCAA investigations have revealed artificially enhanced high school grade-point averages.  Other allegations include under-the-table money and other valuable enticements being provided to athletes and/or their families prior to or after arrival at some colleges.

SMU’s famous “Death Penalty” recruiting violation case was handed down by the NCAA in the 1980’s.

It forced the school to cancel football entirely in 1987 and 1988.  This sent a message to other schools that the NCAA was serious about enforcing its rules.

Much like WWE legend The Undertaker, SMU gradually arose from its football coffin and even qualified for the 12-team College Football Playoffs in 2024.

Unfortunately, the NCAA has appeared to prefer focusing on administrative issues like adding the 3-point shot to college basketball (1986) rather than pursue investigations against member institutions (which supply a cadre of high-dollar attorneys) about alleged cheating allegations.

Which brings us to today’s NCAA transfer portal and the NIL-A-Palooza

Implementation of the NCAA’s transfer portal in 2018 began allowing student-athletes to transfer from one college to another in the same way that all other students are permitted to do.

Previously, athletes had been barred from participating in sports at their new school for up to a full year. This was (supposedly) done to encourage athletes to keep their commitment to the original institution’s athletic program.

It was in 2021 that the game-changing Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) program began.

Chuckle if you wish, but the NIL was initially intended to give cash-starved college athletes an opportunity to earn some extra spending money via local advertisements and promotional appearances.  Most figured that this would fetch, at best, a few thousand dollars per year for some students to buy pizza, attend an occasional movie, buy clothes, and the like.

Au contraire! They were quite wrong.

The actual result of the combination of the NCAA transfer portal and the NIL cash has been the creation of a very lucrative pay-for-play system.

College coaches are legally gambling by offering scholarships and massive NIL cash incentives to transfer portal players.

Has the NCAA been actively involved in verifying whether the transferring athletes have met the academic standards of their previous school and the incoming entrance requirements of the new college?

If the NCAA isn’t doing this, are we supposed to trust the coaches and athletic administrators to simply police themselves?

University of Texas junior quarterback Arch Manning was identified by one publication as having an NIL value of more than $4 million per year.  A few of this January’s top transfer quarterbacks may have received offers of $5 million or more to change football teams for next season.

A record 3,300 FBS major college football players entered January’s transfer portal.

There are 136 football teams in the FBS classification.

That means that an incredible 24 football players per school were playing musical chairs this month.  Current rules allow no more than 85 full scholarship football players per institution.

New LSU football coach Lane Kiffin just returned to Baton Rouge with the #1-rated transfer portal class.  He signed more than 40 new players for the Tigers this fall.  Coach Kiffin was expected to spend more than $20 million to buy talent – for just one season.

This same game is being played by college participants in men’s and women’s basketball.

Even top baseball, softball, gymnastics, soccer, volleyball, tennis, and golf stars are being lured to certain colleges with NIL cash offers.

What is the NCAA going to do about all of this?

Not much.

The NCAA has been busy dealing with lawsuits filed by attorneys representing athletes demanding one additional year of college athletic eligibility.  Most cases are due to injuries which kept the player from participating for more than half of a previous year.

The money being offered to remain one more year in college has become so high that increasing numbers of athletes want to stick around to build their financial nest egg.

Why enter a professional sports draft when you are not assured of being selected by a team or making the final squad next season?  A growing number of college football players are opting for the “sure thing” by taking NIL cash which is likely more than they would earn as an NFL rookie.

Starting football players for this month’s national champion Indiana Hoosiers had an average age of 23.

Coach Curt Cignetti apparently knows how to play this transfer portal/NIL game quite well, too!

The NCAA is considered to be (at least for now) a tax-exempt non-profit entity under IRS Section 501 (c)3.  It earns more than $1 billion in annual revenues – primarily associated with the television rights paid by networks for the men’s and women’s March Madness college basketball tournaments.

Non-profits traditionally earn most of their income from charitable donations.  The NCAA might also be busy protecting its own business plan right now.

Perhaps the NCAA doesn’t have much of an appetite to waste its financial and legal resources pursuing rogue schools and players.  All parties now arrive at the courthouse armed with their own high dollar attorneys.

Does this mean that major college sports are operating on a Doomsday Clock?

Perhaps.

There is only one sure way to get things to change.  A large enough percentage of fans must stop buying season tickets, donating money to their schools’ athletics departments, and watching televised major college sports on television.

When revenues noticeably drop, things might change.

Will that happen anytime soon? 

Don’t hold your breath!  

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