The Extra Dimension

The Extra Dimension #23: Post-Scarcity


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In a post-scarcity society, nobody has to work if they don't want to. Ian R Buck and Brandon Johnson explore the forces that can help us reach that state, how such a society would have to be structured, what we would do with our time, and some of the challenges facing us on our way there.

Episode Summary
00:02:13 | Broad Overview
  • Post Scarcity Civilizations – YouTube
    • “A Civilization or economy in which scarcity of resources no longer exists.”
    • Post scarcity civilizations have to be either young and haven’t grown to their carrying capacity, or they have no growth
    • Initially basic needs will be met, and then we progressively move up Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs
    • A world without work is coming – it could be utopia or it could be hell | Ryan Avent | Opinion | The Guardian
      • Automation is making work too cheap for human laborers
      • Significant political, economic, and social changes are going to be needed in order for us to avoid collapse on our way to post-scarcity
      • 00:12:53 | Automation
        • Robots Will Steal Your Job, But That’s OK: How to Survive the Economic Collapse and Be Happy
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          • The point of technological progress has been to enable us to get the same resources for less effort – or more resources for the same effort
          • Exponential growth makes it difficult to realize massive changes are coming, even when they are imminent
          • Once one machine has been “trained” to do something, all of them have been
          • Don’t Replace People. Augment Them. – What’s The Future? – Medium
            • The only way for people to compete with machines in the workforce is for people to be augmented
            • Machine learning enables computers to adapt to new tasks over time, is accelerated by the amount of data we collect about the activities of workers
            • I see three possible outcomes:
              • Automation pushes humans out of the workforce, but it’s okay because we put in place social structures to support those who are not in the workforce
              • Automation pushes humans out of the workforce, and those who own the automation accrue all the wealth from that system
              • Humans allow ourselves to be augmented to such an extent that we can compete with automation
              • 00:26:45 | Workforce Upheaval
                • Robots Will Steal Your Job, But That’s OK
                  • Information technology eliminates far more jobs than it creates
                  • Those forced out of their current profession do not have much hope of entering the workforce at the same pay level
                  • The Middle Class shrinks
                  • Greater shares of produced wealth goes to the already wealthy
                  • Past automation has forced unskilled workers into retail or delivery fields, but those are now on the chopping block.
                  • Of course not all jobs will be automated, the 45% of jobs that are easily automated will certainly be enough to radically alter society
                  • As time goes on, we will automate more and more jobs. New fields will open, but those jobs will be more difficult and sophisticated than before, and will employ fewer people.
                  • Humans Need Not Apply – YouTube
                    • Mechanical muscles allow us to free up labor so those humans can specialize in other things, which overall improves our standards of living
                    • Technology improves at a rate that biology can’t match
                    • “Mechanical muscles” applies to brain power as well; thinking and creative jobs aren’t safe
                    • The Rise of the Machines – Why Automation is Different this Time – YouTube
                      • More wealth is going to industries with fewer workers
                      • If automation displaces enough workers, who will be able to buy the stuff produced by automation?
                      • The Vanishing Male Worker: How America Fell Behind – The New York Times
                        • Easier to live without employment now
                        • Barrier to entry for working has increased
                        • The game industry’s disposable workers – Polygon
                        • Working in a gig economy : Career Outlook: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
                          • Gig economy, aka work on demand
                          • Difficult to do as sole income, so many people supplement a main job with gigs
                          • 00:53:59 | Rethink Society
                            • Get off the hedonic treadmill
                            • Stop trying to “keep up with the Joneses”
                              • Even if our material goods are provided for, people will find ways like fame or social standing to differentiate themselves
                              • Machine Money and People Money – What’s The Future? – Medium
                                • May transition to a two-currency system: one for buying things made by machines, the other for buying things made by humans
                                • Problem: if a machine can make something that seems like it was made by a human, how do you know you are paying for the real deal?
                                • Current society has engrained in us the idea that we are defined by our job. We have to reject this idea in order to progress to a post-scarcity society.
                                • Currently people say “if you’re good at something, don’t do it for free.” In a post-scarcity mindset, you would say “if you wouldn’t do this job for free, you shouldn’t do it at all.”
                                • Unemployment is a huge detriment to mental health, unless unemployment is the norm
                                • Transition period – make shorter workweeks the norm
                                • How do people find purpose?
                                • What will we do with our free time?
                                • The Free-Time Paradox in America – The Atlantic
                                  • The rich are supposed to be able to afford more leisure time, but we’re seeing a very different outcome
                                  • 2015: 22% of men aged 21-30 without a college degree hadn’t worked in the last year
                                    • They spend a lot of time playing video games
                                    • They report higher satisfaction than the same age group back when employment was higher
                                    • Technological progress has been fastest in areas related to entertainment, communication, and information processing
                                    • Entertainment is now an inferior good (as one’s income goes up, they consume less of it)
                                    • The rich have reduced their leisure time more than any other demographic
                                      • “Building wealth to them is a creative process, and the closest thing they have to fun.” – Robert Frank
                                      • What is the point of education? How do we structure it?
                                      • No couch, one car: How these Minnesotans are living with less – StarTribune.com
                                      • 01:14:17 | Universal Basic Income
                                        • Basic income: the world’s simplest plan to end poverty, explained – Vox
                                          • Everybody gets a monthly payment from the government, no questions asked
                                          • Several different models on how to run it
                                          • Concern: people who receive this benefit will have no incentive to work!
                                            • Well yes, in the context of post-scarcity, that’s the point
                                            • It may be a way to solve the problem of mass unemployment as a result of automation
                                            • The Future of Not Working – The New York Times
                                              • A test of UBI taking place in villages in Kenya by an NGO called GiveDirectly
                                              • Every adult receives $22 per month for 12 years
                                                • Equates to ~$1000 per month in Minnesota
                                                • Some recipients put the money towards basic needs like food, others used it for entrepreneurial endeavors
                                                • Free Cash in Finland. Must Be Jobless. – The New York Times
                                                • This Kenyan village is a laboratory for the biggest basic income experiment ever – Vox
                                                • Moving Forward on Basic Income
                                                • Y Combinator is running a basic income experiment with 100 Oakland families — Quartz
                                                • Attributions
                                                  • Kevin MacLeod [Official] – Inspired – incompetech.com – YouTube
                                                  • Copyright

                                                    The Extra Dimension is released under a Creative Commons — Attribution 4.0 International license. Feel free to use any or all of it as long as you link back to https://thenexus.tv/ted23.

                                                    This episode of The Extra Dimension has a Fringe episode. You should really listen to The Fringe #437: TED #23 — This Video May Cause Reactions!

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