In a post-scarcity society, nobody has to work if they don't want to. Ian R Buck and Brandon Johnson explore the forces that can help us reach that state, how such a society would have to be structured, what we would do with our time, and some of the challenges facing us on our way there.
Episode Summary
00:02:13 | Broad Overview
Post Scarcity Civilizations – YouTube“A Civilization or economy in which scarcity of resources no longer exists.”Post scarcity civilizations have to be either young and haven’t grown to their carrying capacity, or they have no growthInitially basic needs will be met, and then we progressively move up Maslow’s Hierarchy of NeedsA world without work is coming – it could be utopia or it could be hell | Ryan Avent | Opinion | The GuardianAutomation is making work too cheap for human laborersSignificant political, economic, and social changes are going to be needed in order for us to avoid collapse on our way to post-scarcity00:12:53 | Automation
Robots Will Steal Your Job, But That’s OK: How to Survive the Economic Collapse and Be Happy
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The point of technological progress has been to enable us to get the same resources for less effort – or more resources for the same effortExponential growth makes it difficult to realize massive changes are coming, even when they are imminentOnce one machine has been “trained” to do something, all of them have beenDon’t Replace People. Augment Them. – What’s The Future? – MediumThe only way for people to compete with machines in the workforce is for people to be augmentedMachine learning enables computers to adapt to new tasks over time, is accelerated by the amount of data we collect about the activities of workersI see three possible outcomes:Automation pushes humans out of the workforce, but it’s okay because we put in place social structures to support those who are not in the workforceAutomation pushes humans out of the workforce, and those who own the automation accrue all the wealth from that systemHumans allow ourselves to be augmented to such an extent that we can compete with automation00:26:45 | Workforce Upheaval
Robots Will Steal Your Job, But That’s OKInformation technology eliminates far more jobs than it createsThose forced out of their current profession do not have much hope of entering the workforce at the same pay levelThe Middle Class shrinksGreater shares of produced wealth goes to the already wealthyPast automation has forced unskilled workers into retail or delivery fields, but those are now on the chopping block.Of course not all jobs will be automated, the 45% of jobs that are easily automated will certainly be enough to radically alter societyAs time goes on, we will automate more and more jobs. New fields will open, but those jobs will be more difficult and sophisticated than before, and will employ fewer people.Humans Need Not Apply – YouTubeMechanical muscles allow us to free up labor so those humans can specialize in other things, which overall improves our standards of livingTechnology improves at a rate that biology can’t match“Mechanical muscles” applies to brain power as well; thinking and creative jobs aren’t safeThe Rise of the Machines – Why Automation is Different this Time – YouTubeMore wealth is going to industries with fewer workersIf automation displaces enough workers, who will be able to buy the stuff produced by automation?The Vanishing Male Worker: How America Fell Behind – The New York TimesEasier to live without employment nowBarrier to entry for working has increasedThe game industry’s disposable workers – PolygonWorking in a gig economy : Career Outlook: U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsGig economy, aka work on demandDifficult to do as sole income, so many people supplement a main job with gigs00:53:59 | Rethink Society
Get off the hedonic treadmillStop trying to “keep up with the Joneses”Even if our material goods are provided for, people will find ways like fame or social standing to differentiate themselvesMachine Money and People Money – What’s The Future? – MediumMay transition to a two-currency system: one for buying things made by machines, the other for buying things made by humansProblem: if a machine can make something that seems like it was made by a human, how do you know you are paying for the real deal?Current society has engrained in us the idea that we are defined by our job. We have to reject this idea in order to progress to a post-scarcity society.Currently people say “if you’re good at something, don’t do it for free.” In a post-scarcity mindset, you would say “if you wouldn’t do this job for free, you shouldn’t do it at all.”Unemployment is a huge detriment to mental health, unless unemployment is the normTransition period – make shorter workweeks the normHow do people find purpose?What will we do with our free time?The Free-Time Paradox in America – The AtlanticThe rich are supposed to be able to afford more leisure time, but we’re seeing a very different outcome2015: 22% of men aged 21-30 without a college degree hadn’t worked in the last yearThey spend a lot of time playing video gamesThey report higher satisfaction than the same age group back when employment was higherTechnological progress has been fastest in areas related to entertainment, communication, and information processingEntertainment is now an inferior good (as one’s income goes up, they consume less of it)The rich have reduced their leisure time more than any other demographic“Building wealth to them is a creative process, and the closest thing they have to fun.” – Robert FrankWhat is the point of education? How do we structure it?No couch, one car: How these Minnesotans are living with less – StarTribune.com01:14:17 | Universal Basic Income
Basic income: the world’s simplest plan to end poverty, explained – VoxEverybody gets a monthly payment from the government, no questions askedSeveral different models on how to run itConcern: people who receive this benefit will have no incentive to work!Well yes, in the context of post-scarcity, that’s the pointIt may be a way to solve the problem of mass unemployment as a result of automationThe Future of Not Working – The New York TimesA test of UBI taking place in villages in Kenya by an NGO called GiveDirectlyEvery adult receives $22 per month for 12 yearsEquates to ~$1000 per month in MinnesotaSome recipients put the money towards basic needs like food, others used it for entrepreneurial endeavorsFree Cash in Finland. Must Be Jobless. – The New York TimesThis Kenyan village is a laboratory for the biggest basic income experiment ever – VoxMoving Forward on Basic IncomeY Combinator is running a basic income experiment with 100 Oakland families — QuartzAttributions
Kevin MacLeod [Official] – Inspired – incompetech.com – YouTubeCopyright
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