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The False Dawn: November’s Inventory Mirage
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit ariashe.substack.com
Independence & Non-Affiliation Statement
This publication is created solely in my personal capacity and entirely outside my employment with S&P Global and the Journal of Commerce. It is not reviewed, approved, endorsed, supported, or affiliated in any way with S&P Global, the Journal of Commerce, S&P Global Market Intelligence, S&P Global Maritime & Trade, or any other S&P Global division, subsidiary, or business unit.
No proprietary S&P Global data, confidential information, internal research, embargoed material, editorial planning, interviews, systems, models, workflows, tools, or resources are accessed, used, referenced, derived from, or incorporated into this publication.
All content reflects my personal opinions and independent analysis based exclusively on publicly available information.
This publication is not a news product, research product, analytical product, or commercial intelligence product of S&P Global or the Journal of Commerce. It contains no original reporting, sourcing, interviews, investigations, or scoops; it consists solely of commentary and analysis.
This publication does not replicate, substitute for, compete with, or overlap with any S&P Global or Journal of Commerce product, service, dataset, research offering, editorial output, or commercial activity.
Any opinions expressed herein are my own and should not be attributed to S&P Global, the Journal of Commerce, or any of their business units under any circumstances.
Show Notes (Free Version — Upgrade to a Paid Subscription for a Longer Podcast with Deeper Analysis of the PMIs: Global Pulse: A “Three-Speed World”):
0:00 — Intro: The “False Dawn”
* The Hook: The hosts introduce the central conflict: Is the U.S. manufacturing recovery real, or are we walking into a trap?
* The Data: Introduction of the conflicting November PMI numbers—ISM (48.2, Contraction) vs. S&P (52.2, Expansion).
1:45 — The Macro Paradox: The “Bullwhip Trap”
* The Disconnect: Discussion on why output is rising (S&P) while new orders remain weak (ISM).
* The Risk: Explanation of the “Bullwhip Effect.” Manufacturers are surging production to beat 2026 tariffs, creating a massive inventory glut (”The Dam”) that retailers aren’t buying.
* Forecast: The hosts predict a “produce now, crash later” scenario for Q1 2026 once the tariff panic subsides.
4:10 — Truckload Market: The “Thanksgiving Mirage”
* The Spike: Analysis of DAT Week 48 data showing a +2.5% jump in spot rates and +24% jump in load-to-truck ratios.
* The Reality Check: The Analyst debunks this as holiday noise (drivers taking time off), not a structural recovery.
* Takeaway: The underlying market remains loose; shippers are advised not to panic over one week of data.
5:50 — Deep Dive: The Rail War (NAWE vs. The “Super-Railroad”)
* The Event: Breakdown of the National Association of Waterfront Employers (NAWE) letter to the Union Pacific / Norfolk Southern merger.
* The Stakes: Why a duopoly controlling 45% of U.S. rail tonnage threatens port fluidity.
* The “On-Dock” Rail: Explanation of NAWE’s fear that the merged railroad will “demarket” short-haul drayage to prioritize profitable long-haul cross-country moves.
* PSR Critique: Discussion on NAWE’s criticism of “Precision Railroading” (PSR) and the investment gap where ports pay for rail infrastructure that railroads refuse to service.
10:15 — Global Pulse: A “Three-Speed World”
* North America: The “Hollow Recovery.” The U.S. is expanding on inventory builds, while Canada and Mexico contract (Mexico suffering from an FDI freeze due to tariff fears).
* Europe: The “Rotting Core.” Germany (48.2) and France are dragging down the Eurozone, while the service-heavy UK and Spain show surprising resilience.
* Asia: The “Alt-Asia” Shift. China (49.9) stalls again, while India (56.6), Vietnam, and Thailand boom—confirming the “China+1” supply chain shift is real.
13:20 — Conclusion & Strategic Advice
* Summary: The recovery is fragile, built on inventory speculation and holiday noise.
* Final Advice: “Stay short on capacity commitments, audit your rail contracts for change-of-control clauses, and don’t trust the headline rates.”
Video Briefing (6 mins):
View all episodes
By Freight PulseThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit ariashe.substack.com
Independence & Non-Affiliation Statement
This publication is created solely in my personal capacity and entirely outside my employment with S&P Global and the Journal of Commerce. It is not reviewed, approved, endorsed, supported, or affiliated in any way with S&P Global, the Journal of Commerce, S&P Global Market Intelligence, S&P Global Maritime & Trade, or any other S&P Global division, subsidiary, or business unit.
No proprietary S&P Global data, confidential information, internal research, embargoed material, editorial planning, interviews, systems, models, workflows, tools, or resources are accessed, used, referenced, derived from, or incorporated into this publication.
All content reflects my personal opinions and independent analysis based exclusively on publicly available information.
This publication is not a news product, research product, analytical product, or commercial intelligence product of S&P Global or the Journal of Commerce. It contains no original reporting, sourcing, interviews, investigations, or scoops; it consists solely of commentary and analysis.
This publication does not replicate, substitute for, compete with, or overlap with any S&P Global or Journal of Commerce product, service, dataset, research offering, editorial output, or commercial activity.
Any opinions expressed herein are my own and should not be attributed to S&P Global, the Journal of Commerce, or any of their business units under any circumstances.
Show Notes (Free Version — Upgrade to a Paid Subscription for a Longer Podcast with Deeper Analysis of the PMIs: Global Pulse: A “Three-Speed World”):
0:00 — Intro: The “False Dawn”
* The Hook: The hosts introduce the central conflict: Is the U.S. manufacturing recovery real, or are we walking into a trap?
* The Data: Introduction of the conflicting November PMI numbers—ISM (48.2, Contraction) vs. S&P (52.2, Expansion).
1:45 — The Macro Paradox: The “Bullwhip Trap”
* The Disconnect: Discussion on why output is rising (S&P) while new orders remain weak (ISM).
* The Risk: Explanation of the “Bullwhip Effect.” Manufacturers are surging production to beat 2026 tariffs, creating a massive inventory glut (”The Dam”) that retailers aren’t buying.
* Forecast: The hosts predict a “produce now, crash later” scenario for Q1 2026 once the tariff panic subsides.
4:10 — Truckload Market: The “Thanksgiving Mirage”
* The Spike: Analysis of DAT Week 48 data showing a +2.5% jump in spot rates and +24% jump in load-to-truck ratios.
* The Reality Check: The Analyst debunks this as holiday noise (drivers taking time off), not a structural recovery.
* Takeaway: The underlying market remains loose; shippers are advised not to panic over one week of data.
5:50 — Deep Dive: The Rail War (NAWE vs. The “Super-Railroad”)
* The Event: Breakdown of the National Association of Waterfront Employers (NAWE) letter to the Union Pacific / Norfolk Southern merger.
* The Stakes: Why a duopoly controlling 45% of U.S. rail tonnage threatens port fluidity.
* The “On-Dock” Rail: Explanation of NAWE’s fear that the merged railroad will “demarket” short-haul drayage to prioritize profitable long-haul cross-country moves.
* PSR Critique: Discussion on NAWE’s criticism of “Precision Railroading” (PSR) and the investment gap where ports pay for rail infrastructure that railroads refuse to service.
10:15 — Global Pulse: A “Three-Speed World”
* North America: The “Hollow Recovery.” The U.S. is expanding on inventory builds, while Canada and Mexico contract (Mexico suffering from an FDI freeze due to tariff fears).
* Europe: The “Rotting Core.” Germany (48.2) and France are dragging down the Eurozone, while the service-heavy UK and Spain show surprising resilience.
* Asia: The “Alt-Asia” Shift. China (49.9) stalls again, while India (56.6), Vietnam, and Thailand boom—confirming the “China+1” supply chain shift is real.
13:20 — Conclusion & Strategic Advice
* Summary: The recovery is fragile, built on inventory speculation and holiday noise.
* Final Advice: “Stay short on capacity commitments, audit your rail contracts for change-of-control clauses, and don’t trust the headline rates.”
Video Briefing (6 mins):