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The Fed Just Hit Pause—Now What?
Mortgage Rates, Volatility & the Fed: What the Bond Market Is Really Saying
Live from Corona, California—and later South Beach—KP breaks down a packed week of economic data, bond market moves, and mortgage rate signals as markets navigate another familiar early-year reset. With the 10-year Treasury breaking above key technical levels, mortgage spreads quietly improving, and volatility remaining surprisingly contained, this episode focuses on how professionals should read the signals beneath the headlines.
KP explains why mortgage rates haven’t moved one-for-one with Treasury yields, how the MOVE Index reveals what bond traders actually think, and why short-term rates, labor data, and PCE inflation matter more right now than political noise. From Fed expectations and stale inflation data to government shutdown risks and spring purchase season dynamics, the episode connects macro trends to real-world mortgage and housing activity.
It’s a period of tension and transition: firm GDP growth vs. softening labor, elevated rates vs. improving spreads, market anxiety vs. bond-market calm—and a reminder that purchase demand, seasonality, and discipline still drive outcomes.
Episode Highlights:
00:00 – Mortgage spreads explained & why volatility matters
01:41 – Live from Corona: market reset, MLK weekend & Fed uncertainty
03:00 – Short-term borrowing, housing activity & early-year demand
05:00 – ADP jobs data, labor softening & implications for rates
07:16 – The 10-year Treasury, technical breakouts & the “Elon Line”
09:20 – MOVE Index vs. VIX: bond volatility vs. stock volatility
11:40 – Fed policy, PCE inflation & why cuts aren’t imminent
14:00 – Government shutdown risk, stale data & market distortions
16:30 – GDP growth, tariffs & why the bond market isn’t panicking
18:40 – Spring purchase season, affordability & why buyers stay active
21:00 – From Corona to South Beach: industry insights & what’s ahead
Follow the data. Control what you can control. Stay ready for opportunity.
#MortgageRates #FederalReserve #BondMarket #InterestRates #Inflation #LaborMarket #HousingMarket #EconomicOutlook #FinancePodcast
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By Kevin PeranioMortgage Rates, Volatility & the Fed: What the Bond Market Is Really Saying
Live from Corona, California—and later South Beach—KP breaks down a packed week of economic data, bond market moves, and mortgage rate signals as markets navigate another familiar early-year reset. With the 10-year Treasury breaking above key technical levels, mortgage spreads quietly improving, and volatility remaining surprisingly contained, this episode focuses on how professionals should read the signals beneath the headlines.
KP explains why mortgage rates haven’t moved one-for-one with Treasury yields, how the MOVE Index reveals what bond traders actually think, and why short-term rates, labor data, and PCE inflation matter more right now than political noise. From Fed expectations and stale inflation data to government shutdown risks and spring purchase season dynamics, the episode connects macro trends to real-world mortgage and housing activity.
It’s a period of tension and transition: firm GDP growth vs. softening labor, elevated rates vs. improving spreads, market anxiety vs. bond-market calm—and a reminder that purchase demand, seasonality, and discipline still drive outcomes.
Episode Highlights:
00:00 – Mortgage spreads explained & why volatility matters
01:41 – Live from Corona: market reset, MLK weekend & Fed uncertainty
03:00 – Short-term borrowing, housing activity & early-year demand
05:00 – ADP jobs data, labor softening & implications for rates
07:16 – The 10-year Treasury, technical breakouts & the “Elon Line”
09:20 – MOVE Index vs. VIX: bond volatility vs. stock volatility
11:40 – Fed policy, PCE inflation & why cuts aren’t imminent
14:00 – Government shutdown risk, stale data & market distortions
16:30 – GDP growth, tariffs & why the bond market isn’t panicking
18:40 – Spring purchase season, affordability & why buyers stay active
21:00 – From Corona to South Beach: industry insights & what’s ahead
Follow the data. Control what you can control. Stay ready for opportunity.
#MortgageRates #FederalReserve #BondMarket #InterestRates #Inflation #LaborMarket #HousingMarket #EconomicOutlook #FinancePodcast