The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged yet flagged rising stagflation risk, pitting its dual mandate against tariff-driven inflation and recession fears. In this episode of This Week on Wall Street, Matt Weinschenk explains:

• How the Fed's "higher unemployment + higher inflation" warning changes the outlook

• Why futures markets may be overpricing three 2025 rate cuts

• The tug-of-war between hard data (low unemployment, 2.3 % inflation) and gloomy sentiment surveys

• How tariffs distort trade-deficit numbers—and what that means for growth

• A simple bond-market signal (the 2-year yield) that often front-runs Fed moves

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