NET WINS Podcast

The Formula Ranks Allen Iverson 111th. Here's the Honest Explanation.


Listen Later

netwins.substack.com

No result in this database is more uncomfortable to write about than this one.

Allen Iverson is one of the most compelling players in NBA history. He is a Hall of Famer, a cultural icon, a first-ballot inductee, and the most physically unlikely superstar the league has ever produced. He played at 165 pounds against men who outweighed him by 60 pounds and he never backed down from any of them. He won four scoring titles. He dragged a undermanned 76ers team to the NBA Finals on sheer will in 2001.

The formula ranks him 111th out of 136 players. His career combined Net Wins is -12.89. He is a net negative by this measure.

That result demands a complete, honest explanation not a dismissal, and not an apology.

Net Wins at a Glance

Regular season: -13.3 · Playoffs: +0.4 · Combined: -12.9

Average per season: -0.95 · Peak season: +4.13 (2000-01) · Top-3 average: +2.57

14 seasons. 1 MVP. 4 scoring titles. 11 All-Star selections. 1 Finals appearance.

Every Season, Laid Out

1996-97: -7.83 · Philadelphia, 22-60

1997-98: -4.58 · Philadelphia, 31-51

1998-99: +0.74 · Philadelphia, 28-22 (lockout-shortened)

1999-00: +2.13 · Philadelphia, 49-33

2000-01: +4.13 · Philadelphia, 56-26 — career peak

2001-02: -0.18 · Philadelphia, 43-39

2002-03: +1.44 · Philadelphia, 48-34

2003-04: -3.59 · Philadelphia, 33-49

2004-05: -0.14 · Philadelphia, 43-39

2005-06: -2.16 · Philadelphia, 38-44

2006-07: +0.31 · Denver, 45-37

2007-08: +1.35 · Denver, 50-32

2008-09: -1.70 · Detroit, 39-43

2009-10: -3.18 · Philadelphia, 27-55

The pattern is impossible to ignore. In seasons where the 76ers won, Iverson’s Net Wins were positive. In seasons where they lost, which was most of his career, they were negative, often significantly. The formula is measuring exactly what happened: a high-usage player whose enormous volume of missed shots and turnovers accumulated against a brutal team loss rate for most of 14 years.

Why the Formula Is Harsh on Iverson Specifically

The Net Wins formula has one structural characteristic that hits Iverson harder than almost any other player in the database: it penalizes high negative action volume on losing teams.

Iverson’s negative actions were substantial by any measure. He attempted more field goals per game than almost anyone in the database. He missed a lot of them, not because he was an inefficient shooter by the standards of his era, but because volume scorers who create their own shot in isolation tend to shoot lower percentages than catch-and-shoot players or players with easier looks. He also turned the ball over at a high rate, partly because he was asked to handle the ball in every difficult situation the Sixers faced.

None of that is a character flaw. It’s a description of what a primary creator does when his team asks him to do everything.

The problem, in the formula’s terms, is the denominator. The formula divides Iverson’s negative actions by his team’s loss rate. In a season where the Sixers went 22-60, that loss rate denominator is enormous, meaning every missed shot and every turnover gets amplified into a large number of player losses. The formula is essentially saying: your negative actions were happening at a rate that mapped almost perfectly onto this team’s losses.

In the two seasons where Philadelphia genuinely won, 1999-00 at 49-33 and 2000-01 at 56-26, Iverson’s Net Wins were positive. The formula is not blind to his value. It sees it clearly when the team context supports it.

The Play Design Objection

Several readers on Reddit raised a sophisticated version of the Iverson critique: the 76ers’ offense was deliberately designed for Iverson to take shots. When plays broke down and teammates took shots instead, that was a failure of execution, not a success. The formula, they argued, can’t distinguish between a shot Iverson was supposed to take and a shot that happened because the play fell apart.

This is a real and legitimate point. The formula has no knowledge of offensive design. It doesn’t know that a Larry Brown isolation for Iverson was the intended outcome and a scramble jumper from Eric Snow was not.

Here is where the objection runs into a limit, though. The formula doesn’t measure whether the play design was correct. It measures whether the outcomes, wins and losses, were served by each player’s specific contributions. And what it finds across 14 seasons is that Iverson’s specific contribution profile, very high positive volume, very high negative volume, correlated more strongly with his teams’ losses than with their wins in most years.

You can believe the play design was right and still accept that the outcomes weren’t always what the team needed. The formula only sees the outcomes.

What the Formula Gets Wrong About Iverson

The honest answer is that it gets some things wrong.

Defensive value is undercounted. Iverson was a legitimate defensive disruptor, 2,307 career steals, a reputation for pestering ball handlers that went beyond what steals can capture. The formula counts his steals but cannot see the deflections, the pressure, the way opposing point guards changed their games against him.

The team context is punishing in a way that may overstate his responsibility. The 1996-97 Sixers went 22-60. Iverson was a 21-year-old rookie. Attributing the full weight of that team’s losses to his missed shots is arguably unfair he was not the reason that team lost 60 games.

Usage rate isn’t accounted for. When a player is asked to take 30 shots a game on a bad team, the formula treats those missed shots the same as missed shots by a player on a good team with good spacing and better looks. That’s a genuine limitation.

What the Formula Gets Right About Iverson

The losing was real. Iverson played 14 seasons. His teams had a losing record in 9 of them. That’s not a statistical artifact, that’s what happened. The formula reflects it.

The 2001 Finals run is captured. His one playoff appearance produced +0.39 Net Wins positive, correctly reflecting a genuine contribution in a genuine run. The formula saw the 2001 Sixers go 13-10 in the playoffs and credited Iverson for his role in it.

His peak was real and the formula sees it. His 2000-01 season at +4.13 is one of the better individual seasons in the database for that year. The formula is not dismissing what he was at his best.

Where Other Lists Rank Him

Net Wins (this formula): #111

ESPN Top 100 (2020): #23

BR All-Time VORP: #38

Bill Simmons Pyramid: #25

BR HOF Probability: 100%

NBA 75th Anniversary Team: Named

Bleacher Report Top 100: #26

The gap between this formula’s ranking (#111) and the conventional consensus (#23-38) is the largest negative gap in the entire database, larger even than Pete Maravich’s gap at #136. Every other major ranking system puts Iverson solidly in the top 30. The Net Wins formula puts him 111th.

That gap is primarily explained by two things: team context and usage. Every other major ranking system adjusts for team quality in some way. Net Wins does not adjust it uses raw team win and loss rates as the denominator, which means players on chronically bad teams get penalized in ways that systems using league-average adjustments do not apply.

Whether that’s a feature or a bug depends on your philosophy. If you believe player value should be measured independently of team quality, Net Wins is too harsh on Iverson. If you believe outcomes, wins and losses, are the only honest measuring stick, the formula is doing exactly what it should.

The Larger Point

Allen Iverson was an extraordinary basketball player who played most of his career on bad teams and was asked to do too much with too little around him. The Net Wins formula cannot fully separate his individual quality from his team’s failures. No formula can.

What it can do, and does, accurately, is measure what actually happened. The wins and losses were real. The missed shots were real. The turnovers were real. The 22-60 season was real.

The formula’s verdict is not that Iverson was a bad player. It’s that his specific contribution profile, high volume, high miss rate, high turnover rate, correlated more with losses than wins in most of the seasons he played. On a better team, with better spacing and less pressure to do everything himself, the formula would look very different.

That’s not a criticism of Allen Iverson the player. It’s a description of what the numbers show when you run them honestly. The practice, it turns out, mattered less than the circumstances.

The full Net Wins database, 295 NBA players and every season from 1946 to 2026, is free at willf123.github.io/nba-net-wins.

Next: Shaquille O’Neal at #6. Subscribe to get it when it drops.

© 2026 Will Fiore. Net Wins formula and all written content are original works. All rights reserved.



Get full access to NET WINS at netwins.substack.com/subscribe

The full Net Wins database, Every season from 1946 to 2026, is free at willf123.github.io/nba-net-wins.

© 2026 Will Fiore. Net Wins formula and all written content are original works. All rights reserved.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

...more
View all episodesView all episodes
Download on the App Store

NET WINS PodcastBy Net Wins