The Formulation of Bayes’ Theorem

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The Formulation of Bayes’ Theorem

Don’t be put off by the esoteric appearance of the following equations. At first glance, you might feel like you’ve been sent back to an incoherent algebra class, but understanding Bayes’ theorem is likely to be easier than you think.

Bayes’ theorem is formulated as follows:

Recall that Bayes used conditional probability. This is the probability of an event given another event. The conditional probability of an event A taking place, given an event B, is written as P(A|B).

Bayes’ Theorem translates in plain language as follows:

“The probability of A taking place, given that B has taken place, is equal to the probability of B taking place, given A has taken place, times the probability of A, over the probability of B.”

Another way to break the denominator down (which might make things clearer for those with more mathematical affinity) is the following: