Macro Mechanics

The Future of the Dollar in Perspective


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The U.S. dollar holds a central, yet increasingly contested, position in the global financial system. Its future is not a single, predictable path but rather the likely outcome of a complex interplay between powerful, competing forces. For decades, its preeminence has been buttressed by America’s economic might, the depth of its capital markets, and its status as the ultimate safe-haven asset. Today, however, a confluence of structural and cyclical challenges is fueling an intense debate about its future trajectory. This analysis aims to neutrally dissect and present the primary bull and bear cases for the dollar, examining its catalysts across two distinct time horizons: a tactical 12-month perspective and a strategic 10-year view. The goal is not to forecast a single outcome but to provide a comprehensive analytical framework for understanding the key factors at play and the critical signposts to monitor along the way.

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Macro MechanicsBy Mike Ross