Luke and Jarod discuss the future of warfare and how its form and definitions may change. They also briefly discuss the current tensions between Ukraine and Russia and Jarod makes some predictions that might come back to bite him in the next couple weeks.

Note from Jarod after a week of reflection: When I made comments about how I didn’t think that Russia would invade Ukraine I was only taking into account the economic/social benefits and costs but not the emotional drivers for Russia’s possible invasion. As discussed in the Johnny Harris video above, Russia and Ukraine have a deeply intertwined history and the two are seen as inseparable by many Russians, and especially those who grew up during the Soviet period. Many of the early Soviet cosmonauts as well as other Soviet heroes were ethnically Ukrainian. Part of the calculus working into Putin’s ultimate decision is the hope to reunite what he likely sees as one cultural people. In many an American can try to understand a Russian (Former Soviet) perspective by doing the following thought experiment. If in 30 years the United States fell apart with most of the country remaining intact as the USA, but the Northeast breaking off as an independent country, would you feel that we were still culturally one American people? Would you feel any drive to reintegrate the Northeast into the greater USA to restore it to its “true” form? Most of the early US history centers around the Northeast US just like much very early Russian history centers around Ukraine and the Kevian Rus. While this scenario does not take into account the larger cultural differences between Ukrainians and Russians and many hundreds of years more of history, it does help us try to understand what is going through Putin’s head. I think with this information I see a Russian invasion more likely, but still don’t see it as a certainty.